Easy - Unemployment stats -
http://visualeconomics.creditloan.com/a-decade-of-unemployment/So apparently it can be under 5%. It was 4% in 2000. 4.7% for 01 (a bad year actually, lots of lay off's I heard on the news, including me), 5.8 for 02, and this was all tech bubble going pop - AKA clinton's era.
Then, 6% for 03, 5.5% for 04, 5.1 for 05 (and this was the housing bubble getting pumped and wars being started) 4.6 for 06 and 07, 5.8 for 08 - sharp rise while bush still in office with housing bubble popping, and 9.3 in 09. Deep recession on, bail out's not withstanding.
However the theory is that it would have been 25% if not for the bailout. I dont buy that BS. It may have been 25% for a month or 2 before adjusting the right way without us getting deep in debt. Of course I also thought interest rates were going to rise in 08 and the euro was going to just go from strength to strength.
Anyway I'd lay down the housing bubble @ bush's door, the wars too. Unemployment and expenses due to vacant/un-sold houses on banks books and people returning from the war - Bush's responsibility.
Clinton didn't pump the tech bubble, in fact clinton started the "house flipping" economy in 98 by changing it to 3 years for capital gains.
Obama may have his own trail of tears - as yet to be seen, if immigration reform goes haywire and it will, yes, he should have stopped it, If Obama care goes pear shaped and no its not done it yet, but it may, that too should be dropped on to Obama's book. Many more to come. Lost of nuts has been tossed up, lots of fans are running. It remains to be seen. Detroit seems to have missed the sheite with the fan. Its now better than japan.
Cool.
Srinath.