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Computing in 2023 (Read 2490 times)
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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #105 - 12/28/23 at 21:03:59
 

2024 will be noted as the year when some of the old stuff dropped off the screen.

Do not buy PC Stuff just using your old style PC moldy knowledge, as that knowledge is grievously out of date.

Your old physical hardware is still actually OK for most home PC uses, if you will just change your operating system to one that accepts both old and new stuff on a level, fast changing playing field.  

Yes, I mean you will have to use open source softwares ......  like Linux Mint.


If you are mentally stuck in Wintel Land, sorry, you are screwed over big  time as something in your rig will always be lacking or out of whack.  

If you stay with Windows you will have to buy new hardware repeatedly every few years as Wintel orders you to do so.


==================================


How fast is this new AI  changeover coming?   Really really really fast ........

AMD had figured 50% per year in processing ability change due to AI changeover per year over the next 4 years (yes, that is some really large growth on top of large transition benefits).

They were too conservative, AMD now they say 70% - 80% delta per year (limited mainly by needing brand new long lead time TSMC production equipment, not by the raw demand which is basically endless.

Intel is caught going backwards right now, as the last new generation moves backwards a bit in the latest Intel throughput numbers.


==================================


TSMC has been challenged by the various nation states to increase their build tempo to QUADRUPLE the number of high EV lithography lines they can complete per quarter, measured year on year.

And this is still not going to be enough .......    New vendors like Canon are being encouraged to jump into this space with competing styles of production equipment.



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« Last Edit: 01/06/24 at 10:38:12 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #106 - 01/02/24 at 23:39:47
 

Time to mark the line in the sand for this upcoming year's various progress items.

Watch this for a fast video review of where we are right now.  

AMD is up way in front with the Ryzen 7 3-D stacked stuff leading the band due to simplicity and cache based speed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj4gn7od0jY&t=144s
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« Last Edit: 01/11/24 at 10:52:01 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #107 - 01/03/24 at 10:45:53
 

First new 2024 innovation/industry shift is Microsoft showing signs of partnering with AMD on joint new 2024 items instead of partnering with Intel.

Intel was not invited to this particular Microsoft/AMD party at this time as Intel has no significant new innovations to share for industry progress for this year.  

Literally, Intel chipsets on offer right now will run better on Win 10 than they will on Win 11, much less than running the best on the upcoming Win 12 which is what Microsoft really needs right now.

Yes, the latest Intel generation does not run as fast as previous generation's products run under the older Win OS generations.

Yes, something is indeed wrong in Wintel land ......

MS needs an innovation progress partner for Win 12, and Intel is all tapped out and snarled up in the past at the moment.   Can AMD meet this need or will Intel have to come back in later on with some "winning mix of features and speed"?

Intel will certainly ring in later on, we are fairly certain of this.   But right now, AMD seems better positioned to be the early partner/winner.


=================================


MS Clippy gets an upgrade --- to Microsoft AI Assistant.

Microsoft is putting AI right out up front in Windows 12 --- how well the processor makers and the various software vendors can do this new tech spells out who will be a winner in 2024.


==================================


Intel has bought the very first section of a brand spanky new ASML production lithography process line.   This refers to Intel's plan to dominate the world at 1.8 angstrom lithography in 2-3 years from now.

Why wasn't TSMC/Apple first in line to get the first 3 lines of this break-through technology  as they normally are?    Apple buys the actual lines from ASML, then has them shipped and installed at TSMC by ASML led tech teams at an Apple specific TSMC facility and Apple then owns all the production rights from off of these new lines until Apple rolls down to a new lower lithography level.
 
????????  

Rumor is that the newest < 2nm ASML stuff really doesn't really work all that well right now, and TSMC/Apple are waiting on Gen 2 or Gen 3 of 2nm for ASML to get the bugs worked out properly before they fully buy into it.  Until then, Intel is left as the only one holding the dubious 18a lithography sack and it stinks pretty bad right now .....


Also we got Canon/Japanese gov. backed competitive units that are coming with a completely new approach to chip making that is far faster and far far cheaper to implement.

On top of this, Apple is having some money problems right now due to large amounts of unsold inventory resulting from their last big TSMC/Apple/ASML project. collaboration.  

This is also due to things not working out as well as expected in a China environment that is rife with Huawei's new processors and Huawei's new Harmony OS that are cutting deeply into Apple's sales in China.

This may lead to the  earlier than expected release of the current set of dedicated Apple processor lines to do state of the art work for AMD and others ......
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« Last Edit: 01/23/24 at 08:14:37 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #108 - 01/08/24 at 11:35:13
 

https://liliputing.com/amd-brings-radeon-700m-rdna-3-igpus-to-desktops-with-r...

This little ditty outlines AMD's current use of advanced graphics cores and more powerful AI chiplet segments to pump up last years API winner into this years API winner.

Intel has already lost when compared to last year's AMD API technology and their next upcoming Intel generation has no chance to win against already being 2 years behind to what AMD just shipped.  
AMD has indeed put a gaming level AI/GPU into their standard run-of-the-mill laptop processors.   AMD met their last year's promises, while Intel ships more smoke and mirrors instead.


==================================


Reality check came quickly --- AMD announced ongoing shipment of refined new generation AMD processors and Intel announced their 1-2 year out plans to beat them.

Everybody is going AI in a big way.   AMD has stuffed their central processing chiplet with AI goodness starting several months ago and Intel has plans to "triple their AI footprint" (whatever that means in Intel speak) starting next year.

Intel is only comparing itself to itself right now, it is the only way for Intel to show any form of progress at this time.  

Intel is actually 2 years behind the pack and can only compete in their 2-3 years out "future plans".   Does Intel think we think AMD and others will be sitting still while they go out 2-3 years to do this?

As far as the brand new ASML EUV production line that Intel took that first container shipment on -- Intel doesn't know how to run it even when they get the rest of the pieces in and can actually try to put it together.

As Intel dog paddles forward, they will slowly get better.   But Intel will never be competitive to AMD as AMD/TSMC is simply staying too many years ahead in their base technology .......

https://hothardware.com/news/amd-ryzen-7-8840u-benchmarks-hawk-point-beating-...

As our automotive companies learned, the last two years of cooperating with Biden's Grand Plan was an unmitigated disaster and poor GM will likely never recover from their dose of Bidenomics.   Ford has Elon Musk sticking his hand out to give them a "buy you boost" back into a solid reality basis, but GM will likely never make it back from Bidenomics land alive as Elon simply doesn't want to buy them --- he wants to buy Ford instead.
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« Last Edit: 01/15/24 at 06:19:45 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #109 - 01/23/24 at 08:04:57
 

KEY TAKEAWAYS on leak from xda developers on the AMD Strix Point APU processors

AMD's upcoming Ryzen 8000-series 'Strix Point' APUs will likely have 16 RDNA 3.5 GPU cores and 12 Zen 5 CPU cores, making them powerful hybrid processors that would not require a graphics card to do AAA gaming.


https://www.xda-developers.com/amd-ryzen-8000-strix-point-apu-leak/


A leaked screenshot suggests that the APU in question has a 45W TDP, indicating that it may be designed for laptops rather than desktops.

The leaked information also mentions the APU's clock speed, memory configuration, and CPU design, hinting at a competitive offering from AMD compared to Intel's upcoming Arrow Lake processors.

AMD is expected to release its Ryzen 8000-series 'Strix Point' APUs late this year, featuring a combination of Zen 5 CPU cores and RDNA 3.5 integrated graphics. Earlier leaks already revealed several key details about them, including the CPU core count, and now another massive leak has seemingly revealed the full GPU core count of what is likely a Strix Point engineering sample.

According to a HWiNFO screenshot posted on Performance Databases, the Ryzen 8000 series could come with 16 RDNA 3.5 GPU cores and 12 Zen 5 CPU cores in a hybrid config. The particular chip detailed in the report comes with a 45W TDP, which suggests it could be meant for laptops rather than desktops. As can be seen from the screenshot, the leaked APU will come with 1024 unified shaders, which translates to 16 Compute Units.
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« Last Edit: 01/24/24 at 20:11:17 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #110 - 01/25/24 at 03:59:03
 

Back to the Intel side of things, Intel is going to buy TSMC production lots of industry standard chiplets until they can get their own equipment working right.  

Look for new Intel 20A lithography to use many many small single thread Intel cores that are true power sippers that are combined with a few powerful cores to do the heavy demand stuff instead of using all the light duty background cores.   Processor management software is an Intel necessity ---- count on it.

When combined with Intel AI, the resulting mixed up processing mess will defy most benchmark softwares in most cases.   You will not know what is doing what, much less be able to rank the results of standard software tests.

Power users will tend to migrate to AMD simply because they can understand what they are seeing when they look at results.   Right now, Intel is going backwards in real processor performance due to the use of a preponderance of single thread tiny cores and until Intel gets a lot more of their mini-cores doing relatively more work Intel will continue to lose to AMD.
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« Last Edit: 02/12/24 at 11:39:57 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #111 - 01/29/24 at 13:29:40
 

It is now being reported that Intel has lapped Samsung and Intel is now the largest "chip producer" in the world.

Watch out for claims like these using metrics that count memory sets as chips as well as counting individual processor tiles as chips .....

Counting only finished assembled CPUs (and not chiplets or memory) is a lot harder to do, but this information would be more relevant to the compute race going on right now.


====================================================


Still, Intel is apparently picking up some steam of late, no matter how you bean count it.


====================================================


TSMC is the world's largest chipmaker using any of these metrics, this is realized after pulling  thumbs out of various orifices and ignoring Intel's ever different funny definitions of what a chip is.  

It is funny, even after allowing Intel to cheat as much as they want, TSMC wins anyway once the Intel funny business is applied equally to both companies.
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« Last Edit: 02/12/24 at 11:26:20 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: Computing in 2023
Reply #112 - 02/12/24 at 11:37:01
 

Intel lies a lot, really a lot, by inference and by intent ......

Extreme tech Intel announces 18a Design Win for 64 core ARM SoC

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/intel-foundry-announces-18a-design-win-...

Here is the exact same information from a backed down statement from Tom's Hardware.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-foundry-services-gets-a...

So, you have a "specious future order" for a develomental chipset to be made on a brand new type of ASML line that you only have the first third of the actual line delivered (but not yet assembled) with no other big takers on getting their own ASML lines (with all the other players holding off on getting their own line for the bugs to be shaken out by Intel).

Also waiting in the wings is a brand new style of lithography system being put out by Canon of Japan which supposedly is far superior as a simpler process method.   One understands this "wait and see" mentality from everyone but Intel who was under the gun to act very rapidly to stop the loss of their stock valuations .........

Sounds like some more standard Intel BS smoke and mirrors, right?


=================================================


I stand corrected, 20 of the new style ASML lines are actually now on order with ASML from a variety of customers with the proposed deliveries stretching out 5 plus years.    

The rub to this being anything going 3 years out is likely going to be overcome by events long before it is shipped.
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« Last Edit: 04/10/24 at 12:00:22 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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