https://finance.yahoo.com/video/amd-keynote-ces-2023-10-082732915.html

This is a summary roll up of the new items in computing on laptops, desktops and data centers.

This is put forth by a investment news reporting service, Yahoo finance.  It is a collage of bits and pieces that are straight from CES 2023.

It is also a listing of ways AMD has moved forward, notably in ways that Intel simply cannot match (not inside the next 2 years anyway).

Intel cannot overheat and overclock enough to do these things.

Intel will push more funny benchmark metrics and more Intel marketing BS in the upcoming months as they try to avoid Intel's stock price going down yet more.

It is interesting that some pundits are now spitting on the Intel vs AMD contest, calling the win going forward for AMD.  

This "calling the contest" is premature IMHO as Intel will keep on struggling and will keep on effectively lowering everybody's prices just to keep their market share up as much as Intel possibly can.  

And a lower price really counts for a lot, as people buy for the lowest price available at that time to preserve as much of their scant post COVID money as they can.

Computer magazines are allowing Intel's games to continue just as long as Intel can find new ways to move the excess heat out of the units.

 
Intel is in big trouble (financially) yet again .......   Intel is cutting 11% of their personnel and are cutting their new project stuff left and right to get some cash flow moving again.   Pat Gelsinger is TRYING to get Intel's spending in line with his much lower income for this year, but he is WAY OVERCOMMITTED by his Biden promises from this past year.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-sunsets-network-switch-biz-kills-risc...

In an attempt to trim their own overblown spending, Intel has abruptly abandoned most of their main program initiatives from last year and have curtailed all Intel dollar spending on their long list of "planned new fabs" that were actually had their land cleared and were partially started.   These are survival type decisions that reflect the severe financial constraints that Intel is under.

The Republicans have cut off most of the future spending on Biden's promised 84 Billion $$$$ in "bring the tech back home" bailout bucks, so apart from further illegal Democrat spending that stuff is all done now.

Intel has only placed orders on a very few graphics processors to run off TSMC's most modern second generation 3nm processor lines.   Intel may have an ASML scanner order in progress to build a few Intel 3nm lines of their very own, but this is very unclear at this time if this was just some Intel PR smoke or something more tangible.

Intel sales of existing Intel 10nm and 7nm processors are strongly tanking right now, leaving Intel to cut prices and profitability to simply move their overstocks of existing already built processors.

Both AMD and Intel are seeing a very slow moving sales of new finished processors, movement only takes place when a new "temporary" major price cut is announced.

AMD right now is simply holding on to their raw chiplet allocations as raw chiplets and are only assembling the finished processors that they actually have firm orders for.   This allows AMD to minimize their working inventory and improve their fiscal results accordingly.

Intel meanwhile still has to build out their entire finished Intel CPU processor, and then Intel must warehouse these very expensive jewels until they can move them on somehow.

Intel is still building out a brand new entire line of new processors and offering them to Intel's contractually bound box makers.   Intel's scrap rates are far higher than AMD/TSMC's rates, and this affects profitability.

Intel is losing money hand over fist due to their marketing plan not keeping track or being in line with the current realities in the embargoed Chinese computer market.   Intel is still making chips for the Chinese market, chips they are no longer allowed to ship directly to China.   Intel ships them to certain Indochinese companies (ones not currently under embargo) who then send them on to China on the sly.   This will be stopped shortly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLP02jAJq3w&ab_channel=Moore%27sLawIsDead

News for 1/31/23

Intel just lost another 11-13% of their stock value as yesterdays news hit on Wall Street.   AMD stock value also went down as stock holders have been made antsy by Intel failing so hard and so repeatedly in the last 60 days.  Because AMD lacks the massive set of issues that Intel is blessed with, AMD's stock price will cycle back up relatively faster.  

(as of 2/1/23 AMD had already bounced back from their hit while Intel stayed under water)

Here is a financial analysis of Intel's true market share and fiscal position.  

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573781-intel-q4-earnings-delusion-and-interven
tion

Yes, AMD is choosing to not supply all that they could supply as they are 1) keeping their unit sales price up and 2) maintaining a steady large stockpile of their chiplets prior to assembly (maintaining AMD's contractual inventory as a backup inventory of unassembled chiplets which is a smart thing to do in a very uncertain environment).

Chiplets are far less costly to inventory than finished unsold processors --- this move makes AMD's financials better just by doing this simple trick.

2/3/23   INTEL'S BOARD OF DIRECTORS JUST CUT THEIR CEO PAT GELSINGER'S BASE SALARY BY 25% ALONG WITH MANY OTHER UPPER EXECUTIVES PAY RATES.   These were performance based incentives that turned out were never earned in hard reality.

https://wccftech.com/intel-anticipates-further-market-share-loses-to-amd-thro...

Just last month, AMD achieved its biggest market share milestone with EPYC surpassing the historical share of Opteron and crunching away more share from Intel in the server segment.  Surely, AMD has come a long way and with solid execution and product launches year after year, they have continued to see a major gain in the PC market.

Intel Confirms Sapphire Rapids Xeon CPUs Have Been Delayed Once Again, Volume Ramp Pushed Back yet again.

Intel could definitely learn from this & it looks like they are by acknowledging the wins and leadership position of their rival AMD. We definitely want to see more competition in the CPU segment and Intel has a long way to go to catch up to the red team but hopefully, if they execute their product lineups properly, they will come close to the goal of being the market leader once again.

AMD leads Intel by three generations of real and significant processor advancements in both Mainframe and Server.   AMD will roll these same throughput improvements and energy advancement improvements into PC space over the next two years while Intel has very little in real Intel advances to announce in response to AMD's very real processor advancements.

Furthermore, AMD has concrete plans for a continuing stream of EVEN MORE MAINFRAME GENERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS based on new TSMC generational lithography improvements which are to be built in new TSMC plants that will be built on American soil.

Compared to second generation TSMC 3nm, Intel has no modern facilities anywhere in the world.   Nor has Intel any concrete plans to build any advanced node processing plants.

Intel intends to once again use some older TSMC lithography levels (10nm and 7nm specifically) to build their next level of "Intel advancement" (which will be falsely named Intel 1.0 angstrom and 1.2 angstrom) to create a false impression of Intel making some serious progress.  

These new Intel "processor advancements" will roll forward in 3-5 years from now ......

https://history-computer.com/the-10-largest-chip-manufacturers-in-the-world-a...

Also unexpected news, Intel is not the largest chipmaker any more by a large margin now-a-days.

TSMC
Samsung
UMC
Global Foundries
Intel
Qualcomm

Intel losing out to a better run Global Foundries has got to sting quite a bit ......

Intel has really fallen off the top of the heap and rolled down the hill a goodly distance.

Morris Chang of TSMC said it best a few weeks ago .......

"50 Billion dollars is not a large amount of money to spend on successfully starting up a fab."

Both TSMC and Samsung routinely pay amounts like 70 billion dollars every few years to keep their fab functions up to date.  

Intel lacks the deep pockets to do this "build a fab stuff" any longer.  

Intel now struggles to put together 20 billion $$$ of their own Intel internal funding and now has to get bailed out by Joe Biden with a promise of 50 plus billion dollars in government funding dollars, dollar amounts that in the end simply will fail yet again to get their Intel fabs up and running in a timely fashion.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-shares-new-cpu-core-roadmap-3nm-zen-5-b...

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amds-data-center-roadmap-eypc-genoa-x-siena...

Having shown Intel's 2-3 years behind the times roadmap and explained it as well as we can, here is AMD's already real and shipping 5nm roadmap along with the 4nm and 3nm roll downs that will take place well before Intel executes their 6nm and 5nm roll downs.

AMD always leads with their mainframe chipsets and rolls the tech advances to consumer as a secondary effort.


Once again, we see AMD putting out plans for chiplets that have CPU, GPU, 3 levels of cache memory and modern Xilinx functions on the same chiplet.   This is because mainframe uses these functionalities at a known intermix ratio, so AMD might as well build it right into the chiplet design so it multiplies out correctly as the chiplet base core counts build up to range between 98 to 256 cores in AMD's largest and most efficient new mainframe products.

Being built on the same chiplet silicon, there are no interface delays or slowdowns for AMD compound design chiplets.   Distance to get to the functions and to the supporting memory are the shortest possible distance and these functions all run at the chiplet's fastest interface speeds.  Much of the compute tasks run locally on the chiplet level, and it is rare for a function's data calls to leave the processor itself.

These are the "core reasons" that AMD now owns the mainframe space as far as new unit sales go.

When these same chiplets show up in the smaller derivative PC designs in the consumer level products, you will have naturally occurring "built in gaming level graphics and strong AI functionality" everywhere naturally.

Intel simply cannot go to the same places as AMD currently can as both Xilinx and AMD graphics belong only to AMD ......

Mainframe users greatly appreciate POWER EFFICENCY, LOWER PROCESSOR TEMPERATURES, STRONGER FASTER COMPUTE WITH BUILT IN MEMORY AND GPU NUMBER CRUNCHING AND THEY ALSO LIKE THE PROGRAMMABLE XYLINX FUNCTIONALITY FOR MUCH STRONGER AI CAPABILITIES.

Consumer PC users will also like these things too, once they see what they can do in their desktop world.

I look forward to the up and coming 3nm AMD chipsets providing even higher core counts (16 cores to 32 cores) that are built with these newer AMD mainframe developed chiplet designs ......




As  you look at the first half of this chart, realize that AMD was under repeated chiplet supply constraints from TSMC's huge contracts with Apple.   Allocations were hard to increase once set because TSMC sold whatever extra new capacity they had to Apple first.  

Plus Intel actually did a few things right a couple of times too which also made life hard for AMD for a quarter or so.

Intel and AMD do like to kick each others asses every six months or so, but in the new environment where AMD can get all the chiplets they need when they need them AMD is doing markedly better in the boot to butt exchanges compared to years past.

I'd only buy a Chromebook if I could gut it and put my own version of Linux on it.  I used to replace the OS on my Android phones with less Googley ROMs, but that's becoming more difficult these days.

Oldfeller--FSO wrote on 02/19/23 at 00:09:58:

Laptop format is fine, but I still need a big screen at home as I'm spoiled from dual 26" monitors at work.  I'm not a gamer, so what can fit in a laptop case / Mac Mini pizza box is fine with me.  Every time I buy a game system at my age I realize that I hate the complexity of the controls or gameplay. If it feels like being at work, then it's not fun for me.  I like FPS, but even those have mazes/lots that are too complicated.  Maybe I need to go back to breakout

Apple has locked down all of the third generation of 3nm + using TSMC lithography.  

Same story as years past, TSMC gets paid well for 100% exclusivity by Apple with Apple literally funding the development of the new TSMC lithography level so the TSMC lithography works well with the Apple chip designs that were co-developed by TSMC and Apple working in tandem during the development period.

People wonder why new TSMC Apple chipsets work so well when they first get reviewed.   For example, AMD has to work with TSMC processes that were designed and tuned specifically to suit Apple's then current processors --- and AMD struggles with that a bit right at first.   Intel cannot figure this out (simply fails to make the move into TSMC full scale production repeatedly).

TSMC 's 2nm lithography and Apple's newest  stuff are being co-developed now as well.  Neither is real at the moment, but the orchestrated development work continues .......

AMD is at 5nm TSMC gen 1 moving over to 5nm TSMC gen 2 right now and this is still 3-6 years more advanced than Intel lithography.

==================================

Apple/TSMC have just announced plans to roll down to 2nm in 2025 with a 3nm++ generation to take place next year.

Core counts and throughput speeds will jump up again .......