Chromebook and Chromebox removing MS laptop/desktop marketshare

So, we see that MS is worried about Chromebooks and Chromeboxes since they are strongly accepted by education, are generally accepted by the consumer and now are starting their roll into the business sector with Dell/VMware/Citrix as their empowering sell through partners.

What does this mean for MS?     MS was already suffering from flat 0% growth in laptops and a 6% year on year decline in desktops, so how much more will Chromebooks/boxes hurt them?

The figures so far this year indicate potentially over a 30% decline in new unit notebook sales and up to a 10% potential decline in non-obsolete installed base, speaking in very general terms (including consumer and business together).

But, you say, but ..... consumer doesn't matter to MS this year since they don't derive any income stream from consumer as they are mostly giving their OS away of late trying to stop the tablet and Chrome bleeding.

Hey, exactly what does that last statement really say about MS's future if they don't change the bulk/slowness of their base OS?    And how the heck can they stick with a pay-me business plan in a world where all other OS products (including Apple's) are given away for free ????

Let's just agree that education is a done deal at this point and all the kiddies are getting educated using Chromebooks and they will all grow up understanding and accepting Chome devices as "real devices" (right up through college anyway).

Yes, so let's focus on Business since that is what hurts MS the most as far as their revenue goes.  



This is Gartner's generic predicted growth in Chromebooks, split by business and consumer.   It is conservative as it is based off the 2013 numbers which have already been exceeded by 2014's first half reality, so the expansion curve will likely be steeper than shown in the graph.

So you could take this chart and make a predicted MS decline chart out of it by flipping it over and showing MS market share shrinkage at the same levels.   One Chrome device sold = one Windows device that didn't sell.

Why would this trick very likely be a valid future prediction?   Because MS has their thumb up their butt for 3 years now and will not/cannot bring themselves to cut down on the gross flatulence in their Windows OS's construction.   We are talking about them building ever more complex OS programs that makes sure Windows requires TWICE AS MUCH systems memory for even a basic minimal install on a low end device.    And the corpulent Windows OS always takes twice as long to execute any given task, comparatively, given the same resources.

Bloatware

A Chrome unit that is configured off the EXACT SAME SPECS as the most minimal Windows machine screams along with copious useful speed, while the Windows unit chugs along doing the same old long boot delays and slow page building delays we have all seen for years and years now.    Pure MS bloatware .....

The Chrome device still wins if you give the Windows unit the double up memory and the stronger processor it "requires" -- Chrome OS is simply that much quicker to execute compared to MS.

How can I say this?   Win RT and its apps, running on standard ARM mobile grade processors,  routinely outpaces Win 8.1 on all app execution stages by 20-50% because the ARM based Win version is simply that much quicker to execute.    

And surprise, Chrome OS and Chrome apps are even quicker than Win RT and RT apps .....

Dell will release figures at years end on their Chromebook and Chromebox sales  --  simply assume Chrome took out one Windows business revenue unit per each Dell Chromeunit sold and you have your rough Microsoft "business income hit" answer.

It will be brutally huge as it rolls out over the years .....   unless MS can actually do something smart with Windows 9 to make it a lot faster and lighter.

And yet so far we see no signs of anything drastically better are coming out of Threshold as far as better memory use or any functional increase in app execution quickness .....    

"Same old same old" functionally will kill MS within 2 years at the rate at which they are going -- even if they completely fix the ugly Win 8.1 interface issues.    

MS has competition now on all sides that clearly outperform the basic Windows OS on pure function, speed and core hardware requirements.

   Apple, ChromeOS, Android, Tizen and the Linux Distros

PREDICTION TIME AGAIN:        When Win 9 comes out a porky loser yet again, expect to see MS's market share to continue to decline along with their stock prices.

Yes, I know, BingOS is not a full sized mainstream real Microsoft OS product --- I was not being fair to them Microsoft lovers everywhere.


OK, only the Windows 8.1 mainstream full retail releases then, Pro Server Edition, the full 64 bit fully tweeked for many-many-core processors version.        Now that is a significant heavy weight OS, to be sure .....   needs a significant Intel processor full rack set and a huge power supply and a ton of memory to handle it properly.
























......   Hey, jest stick yer pocket knife straight in to full depth with the holes separated about six inches apart and create you a weakened zipper type seam right along that there belly line, then kick on her a few times with yer boot until she starts to let go jest a wee little bit  ......

Now let's give it a single hard cold boot speed test .....   wow --- that's really fast  !!!   Opened up completely and displayed itself completely within one (1) second !!! 

  I don't think the 15-20 guys show in the first picture standing off to the right with the cameras and the mics in them black and orange slickers even managed to get a shot of it as it happened so durn fast.    

Jest a taste or a bit of a feel for it, maybe, but nary a single recorded image from all them cameras ....   BTW, we do think some of that "special" Intel brownish future vapor stuff may have indeed been involved with this particular performance test.

(you have to scroll over at the bottom of this whole post to see them camera guys)











Window 8.1 Pro 64 bit (weighing in at 60 tons) can open up and display itself inside of one second as per this Microsoft/Intel verified single cold boot speed test.



   

                         .......  but not using my boot, nosireee Bob,   .... not ever.
                                           I like my boots and my feet jest the way they are      .......       <gag>   <barf>


If you look real sharp at the pic you can see the kicker guy's hand flung up and the top part of his head as he gets violently bowled over by the speedy MS OS's booted output .....

Yup, he got MS Win 8.1 Multiprocessor Pro OS right on up his nose, in his ears and some way down deep into his open hollering mouth he did ....

http://liliputing.com/2014/09/hp-announces-the-14-inch-300-hp-stream-laptop.html

HP announces the 14 inch, $300 HP Stream laptop




Yup, it was all a big April Fools Joke from HP and Microsoft, that they ever could really do a $199 notebook to compete against ChromeBooks -- reality doesn't bend that far.

The fact that Toshiba and Asus actually went and supposedly did it indicates just how far the herd mentality can go among computer producers.    Now if those two guys actually expected to be paid the $50-$100 per unit in offset dollars from Microsoft, well, that will indeed be an item of some interest to their respective lawyers.   (ie show me the contract)

You see, HP points out that they NEVER ever said anything, but it was the head dude from Microsoft that was waving around an unlabeled HP 14" PC at HIS event making all sorts of unfounded statements about what "somebody" was going to do -- HP NEVER SAID THEY WERE GOING TO DO ANYTHING.

Which, as we all know from the re-posting and reading of the yanked HP internal web pages that this current HP story is a bunch of total bullshite.

Yep, we watched the battery grow bigger and bigger, we watched the heat sink expand and grow and turn into copper.   We watched the BOM cost slowly keep creeping on up as the testing went on until HP finally had to come clean THAT THEY SIMPLY COULDN'T DO IT at a price that Microsoft could afford to pay the rest of getting it down to the $199 price point.

Yep, HP couldn't even get close enough to a functional Windows unit at the $199  price swinging that 14" screen so they pulled the web page and upped the price to something that could really be done.

ARE YOU DISAPPOINTED THAT MICROSOFT AND HP WOULD ACTUALLY LIE TO YOU?    

Aren't you used to it yet?

HEY,  DID YOU REALLY EXPECT WINDOWS 9 WAS GOING TO BE ANY FORM OF REAL OR SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER WINDOWS 8.0, OR 8.1?


       well ???

Today Apple has come out with their A8 chip, 5 inch cell phone, and their iOS 8 operating system.   It was a big big Apple day today.

Google is about ready to fire back,  as is Samsung.   But suddenly Intel jumps up on the stage and grabs the microphone.

In a classic Intel meaningless vapor blast - Intel suddenly announces the chip that comes after the chip that comes after the one that isn't quite ready yet.

And the media press corps jumps to cover it like it is real news.

Skylake         And now the idiots in the general press are running around guessing at what lithogaphy it will be built with .....

Etched with phaser beams,  you gullible idiots.  

Trimmed with light sabers.


(Intel doesn't know, they just made it up this morning)


====================


There is an Intel vapor answer given out now ==== 14nm,  wireless 14nm that is.          don't ask





Now for the rest of the story ........  

Apple was planning yesterday to tell the whole world about moving to A9 with all their Mac products starting in 2015 and completing the move away from Intel processors in that time frame.  

In a total panic, Intel has committed to making an inexpensive Apple Green energy efficient ecologically approved chipset GUARANTEED by 2015, or their name isn't Pinocchio.    

And it will be called Skylake.

http://liliputing.com/2014/09/qualcomm-unveils-snapdragon-210-chip-entry-leve...

Qualcomm takes aim into the future and fires their .22 caliber single shot rifle in the present just once,  killing Intel's future vapor Sophia chipset in its tracks with a head shot.



"The Qualcomm Snapdragon 210 is an ARM Cortex-A7 processor with Adreno 304 graphics and support for 3G and 4G LTE networks.

Other features include Bluetooth 4.1, 802.11n WiFI, and support for 108p HD video playback with hardware acceleration for H.264 and H.265 videos. It also supports Qualcomm’s Quick Charge 2.0 technology to let you charge a tablet or phone’s battery up to 75 percent fater.

The Snapdragon 210 is the kind of entry-level chip that’s probably faster and more energy efficient than a top-of-the-line model from a few years ago."



Poor Intel.  Intel just hates Qualcomm for doing things like that, just a quick off the cuff with minimal effort Qualcomm can drop a commandingly good low cost chipset right into Intel's planned market slot and completely de-rail Intel's grandiose vapor plans for Sophia in 2015-2016.    

By the time Intel can actually really physically make anything, the market will be full up with Qualcomm's far better, less expensive, fully integrated "everything right there on the chip" SOC product.

And by putting it all on the chip, Qualcomm guarantees Intel WILL have to pay support dollars for all the other stuff they will require on their motherboard AND Intel will now have to bribe the phone vendors to even use their incomplete not really Android compatible Intel stuff.

But hey, even if they do bribe the phone guys to put a phone out there Intel still can't make the savvy oriental phone buyers actually buy their incompletely compatible large and cumbersome phones.    

They could however give them away for free, or very nearly so.   By the millions, no less.

Intel stockholders might not care for that particular idea though .....           nor would the Chinese government

By the time Intel gets there, Mediatek and Allwinner will each have a new generation of low end chipsets fighting over that same slot with Qualcomm.    
All will be full SOC ARM products, all will be much better than Sophia is planned to be now.

   

There are discussions going on about the ASUS Eee 205 Bingbook (you gotta call them something boys and according to HP Streambook ain't a gonna be it) about not having enough memory to do anything, and what you can do goes very very slowly.

Here is one guy's fairly good statement about what Microsoft has done to itself in going after Chromebooks.


"Theoretically being able to do more and actually being able to do more are two different things. 1GB of RAM on an Android tablet is pretty useful, even for some photo-editing apps and video conferencing. The same is not true for Windows; I have an Acer tablet with Win8.1 and 2GB of RAM, and it's often far more sluggish than my Android tablets with lower-spec hardware.

Windows really needs to escape its Win32 and COM-based roots and become a lightweight OS. As a professional developer, it pains me that Windows still uses a large, monolithic kernel designed for full desktops. Linux, Mac, and by extension, ChromeOS, Android, and iOS devices abandoned the monolithic idea many years ago and now use a modular architecture. This allows them to only load exactly what they need to work.

I thought WinRT was a step in the right direction, but it seems the RT team at Microsoft has been mostly disbanded. I think WinRT is now officially dead, so our only hope is for the core Win OS guys to start working on making the underlying Windows architecture more friendly to small low-powered devices.

Ironically, AMD is pushing ARM for servers because of their relatively low power consumption. Linux supports ARM quite well, and had Microsoft continued to pursue Windows on ARM they could have release Windows Server RT to compete. Oh well."


Good concise recommendation there -- pay attention MS.   If you are only going to support one type of Windows, it has to get slimmer to the point it can actually run well on a tablet or on a low resource notebook.

http://liliputing.com/2014/09/windows-9-previewed-series-leaked-photos.html



Having told us about everything that is being dumped now (to try to get the company downsized to fit the remaining people)
MS is starting to show some screen shots of the still porky and corpulent Win9.

Nothing is being said about it working faster or requiring any fewer resources or reducing the required hardware/memory.

So, it isn't "new and improved" yet,  just reskinned a little bit.    

Same old slow performance, same old blocky ugly so far .....  and I just love the "cracked window pane" background they are using --- broken old windows is about right for this new release Win9.

The trash can is back though.    weeee !