This thread is actually about the very rapid change in our computing world that is currently going on.

It is about 22% of school districts in the USA in year 2013 dumping Windows and Apple and going over to Chromebooks to teach our kids computing.   This number went well past 50% in the first half of 2014.   We are training all of our children to use this new operating system from kindergarten right up through High School right now.

This is about Chromebooks taking over 40% of new laptop sales away from Windows and iOS in the first three quarters of 2014.

This is about Intel and AMD and Samsung and Nvidia Tegra K1 fighting hardware wars over being the very best Chromebook in a rapidly exploding Chrome market.

This is about Microsoft trying to strike back with the Streambook, BingBox and Windows 9.

This is about Intel busting itself to control Chromebooks, because they have so lost totally lost out already in mobile and to continue to dominate in anything at all Intel MUST win in the Chrome Wars.   Intel MUST control the new dark and light purple wedges inside this area chart to become better than the #7 chipmaker that they currently are volume-wise right now.



No other class of product (other than wearables) is "the current battleground" for so many diverse software and hardware functions or has so many determined competitors contesting inside it.    No other market is currently growing as rapidly and has as much potential to completely redefine the desktop/keyboard computing world in the next 3 years.

As ARM goes 64 bit and rolls down to 20nm the potential for ARM processors to run inside desktops and laptops is very rapidly becoming real -- and where that rubber is hitting the road is inside the Chrome Wars.

Welcome to the Chrome Wars .....


============


Why ignore wearables, it is much bigger market than Chromepace after all .....  

Wearables are a subset of super small microprocessor products that right now totally belongs to ARM and the cell phone companies.   They are the ones equipped to deal with this pico sized stuff and they are bashing each other over them smart watches right smartly as we speak.    

Smart watches come across as an accessory to your smart phone, as are your various smart "fitness" devices right now.  

Us old motorcycle dudes don't wear them fitness trackers for much .....

"Is Word really worth it?"


Folks are beginning to articulate why they are such convert fans of Chromebooks and why Chromebooks are taking over laptop sales to such a huge degree based on word of mouth referral.

Here is the article that best articulates why folks like these little laptops and desktop boxes and why they don't miss their Microsoft.

http://blogs.computerworld.com/laptops/23614/chromebooks-are-revolution-easy

This article explains the "one common Windows PC located in the den and a crowd of Chromebooks with one sitting on everybody's nightstand" which is what is really seems to be what is happening in the USA today.

Remember them last words in that last sentence --- "Is Word really worth it?"

Microsoft, the answer people keep coming up with time after time is .....  based on the high cost of MS ownership and the large maintenance/upkeep and aggravation factors is .....

"Hell no".

http://liliputing.com/2014/08/hp-chromebook-14-nvidia-tegra-k1-coming-soon.html



HP Chromebook 14 with NVIDA Tegra K1 coming soon

Poor Intel, they just can't win for losing.   AMD comes out to flatten their tires with the Mullins SOC and now here comes Tegra K1 to put sugar in their gas tank.

(a fanless 13 hour battery life is a lot of sugar to go be stickin' in that gas tank ...)

Poor poor, Intel, what could possibly happen next to take their little private Chrome exclusive world away from them?

Samsung and a custom-built 20nm Exynos Octacore?   Allwinner and another 28nm Octacore?  Rockchip and a 28nm A-17 quad core?

Yep, all of the above are headed your way, Intel.     Soon, too.

http://www.zdnet.com/chromebooks-long-term-threat-to-intel-7000032710/

Chromebooks: Long term threat to Intel



"It doesn't help matters that Chromebooks with ARM processors run extremely well and have done OK in the market. The lightweight OS is designed to run well on lesser hardware, and that means no Intel technology is needed.

It's going to get worse with Nvidia entering the Chromebook market, as its Tegra processor is a good fit for the laptops with Google inside. That must worry Intel more than a little. This is a direct assault to the Intel image, as Chromebook owners discover they don't need Intel inside.

As these Chromebooks without Intel hardware spread through schools, students are going to get used to them. It won't take long until the next generation of computer buyers forget about Intel. That should be a concern to the giant processor maker."  
(actually, Intel is currently the #7 ranked chip foundry world-wide)


What is really hurtful is that the other chip manufacturers are coming in from their other relative fields and they are just taking huge chunks of Chromespace market share away from Intel --- effortlessly.    How is this ????

Intel's current small processor crop simply isn't very efficient, it isn't integrated well at all and it runs HOT HOT HOT with relatively poor battery life (even more so than a Mullins) when you ask it for top end performance speeds.  

Intel requires a 50 watt/hour battery and a big CPU fan in a silly HP Chromebook 14, for crying out loud.   And that's for normal, average 6 hour type battery life.

(Hey, Intel really liked it when they were competing against them ancient, 32nm designed 4 year old dual core Exynos chipsets.  Intel could win some in that particular foot race.)

This "Intel winning" ends though, immediately.   The 28nm and 20nm lithography 64 bit ARM chipsets are coming, and they will beat up Intel on all fronts very easily.   So will the 28nm Tegra K1.

Plus, these integrated ARM systems on a chip can be sold at a profit, which Intel still hasn't figured out how to do yet ....

  Isn't losing money getting old to your stockholders yet, Intel?  

And so, Intel has no response to the new 20nm ARM fully integrated chipsets at all until Intel's 14nm replacement generation can get up into volume production some times late next year (maybe, if that actually happens).

And here is the last, most deadly effect of the Chrome Wars on Intel -- their Core i3 group is already getting lapped by ARM in Chromespace and their low end of Core i5 is getting threatened as well.  This ARM competition threatens to flow over into main PC space when Win 9 comes out next spring.

Apple has already flat-assed told Intel that unless they can make a green processor (green according to Apple standards) the Apple A8 and A9 chipsets will start to go into Apple laptops starting in 2015.

Things look tough for Intel ....

In all of these new Stream devices the fast SSD is intended to hold the operating system and a bare sprinkling of applications.

16 gigs isn't a lot in Windows, but in Linux it could hold your whole hard drive, OS, all the apps and all your stored data.

Ditto for Chrome.

Windows is just that thick and porky compared to other OS's.

==================

SIMM cards up to 128 gig and USB 2.0 and USB 3.0 one to two terabyte portable hard drives make up the rest of what the Streambooks are missing.

http://www.eeherald.com/section/news/onws201408001.html

Let's talk briefly about where the chips are coming from, the general rankings and who is growing and who is not growing right now ....



This is from the first quarter of this year, showing the traditional order of ranking that has been sitting around for the last 4-5 years basically unchanged.   What is changing is the volumes this ranking order is based upon (note: instead of being twice as big or bigger, Intel is only slightly bigger than Samsung right now).


So, let's look at who is growing (or not as the case may be)




Intel has not ever been considered as a fab for hire before this year, so their fab ranking history is very very sketchy right now.    

Most all of their dollar based ranking data is skewed, because they would only report their production at full retail value.  

Intel chips are never sold at retail value, ever.

A fab has to report the real sales price for the chips it produced x number of chips produced, and Intel refuses to do this.  

Complicating this issue is the fact Intel has been selling all of its low end chips at a strong loss (sometimes at over a 100% loss) while trying to break into mobile.

(as in sell it at a strong loss, but report it at retail price as a + number ???)

Also complicating Intel's reporting is that their fabs are currently only partially utilized right now but Intel chooses not to tell anyone just how low this partial utilization level has gone.  

The last factual reporting done by anyone based upon real known raw output numbers ranked Intel in the #7 position of all fabs based upon the output of finished chips.  

TSMC was the largest chipmaker in that "real output" list by a considerable margin.    And yet Intel claims to be 3 times bigger than TSMC by using full retail pricing for all products and reporting their "overall size" off of maximum theoretical capacity (while actually running at less than half of that right now due to low demand).

Intel is fixing this by shutting down some offshore fab plants, just not quickly enough to keep up with the drop in demand for their products.

So, Intel is now trying to peddle new 14nm lithography technologies that they are claiming are "production ready".  So far they have sold this production capacity once already this year to Altera then defaulted on this deal earlier this year by not being able to meet either the production start date nor to get close to the predicted cost to produce the Altera 14nm chipsets.   Altera went back to Samsung and their 20nm process for what they needed.

As a fab for hire, Intel is racking up a very spotty history in their new fab for hire endeavor.

What is clear to all parties is that Intel's interior pricing structure is way way way out of line with the rest of the fab industry -- as are every volume or costing based or structure based number that they have been using to create their internal "Intel Success" numbers that they have been using for years and years with their stockholders.

It would be very hard to buy any large scale 14nm production commitment out of Intel right now because it is clear the people negotiating with you have no choice but to actually use these sorts of funny Intel internal numbers to base their offers to you .... and once harsh reality peels the layers of vapor and fudge off that actual real production run of chipsets they will cost you more and it will come to you slower than initially offered.

It would be hard to buy Intel stock right now, knowing that the numbers reported to shareholders are "unique" to Intel in both structure and source.

"Vapor" and "fudge" is not how a fab for hire (or any other business) operates -- brutal, total honesty is how a fab for hire operates.   Intel doesn't get this yet.

Look to see Intel's final 2014 rankings decline still further as the vapor fog bank is replaced by some slightly more honest fab-style reporting.    Also look for the next Intel management change to come about sometimes fairly soon as the stockholders are pissed off at being lied to.   This sea change in management will likely be part of a major restructuring of the company similar to what MS just went through.   There will be some large restucturing charge offs to cover some past sins that need to be properly buried at last.

Intel's current predicted growth of 1% is also a made up number -- actually Intel is still shrinking at the same rate as classic PC is shrinking (around -6 % year on year so far).   Intel has been hiding this in their utilization numbers up until this point but running any plant way below maximum capacity is VERY inefficient and costs the company yet more money that has to out somewhere at some point in time.

Intel cannot continue to claim "1% growth" off of their current attempts at loss leader mobile chip production as they have LOST MONEY (billions and billions) to produce these chipsets.   Losing money is not "growth" -- just ask your accountant, he will tell you.    

Report your stuff monthly at full retail value and producing it inefficiently due to poor plant utilization and selling it at a strong loss because you just plain have to must be reported eventually as an additional "adjustments to revenue" or a massive "restructuring" loss.  

Rolling it and hiding it from one quarter to the next is illegal and will cost the upper level dudes their jobs.

One wonders what Intel really really looks like right now, once you peel off the onion layers of vapor this and fudged that .....

     

Dorothy, don't pull back that curtain, honey -- you won't like what you see.   And put your emerald glasses back on, sweetie -- let's try to be good little Intel stockholders, OK ??

Aw, gee wiz  --  I warned you ......

The Great and Powerful OZ is really just a flim-flam sham of a man, a old short fat bald headed little man sitting on a tall tall stool just so he can reach the levers that control the big flames and smoke generators actively wreathing the puppet head out there on the stage.



Hey !!! Can you please stop it with all the hollering, explosions, shooting flames and billowing smoke for just a minute -- this isn't fun sitting out here getting roasted .....

 
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-denver-tegr-kepler-mobile,27429.html

Is Tegra K1 with dual Denver Cores as good or better than low end Intel Core i3 ???

Well, it equals or betters the Haswell Celeron 2955U in very early reports from Tom's Hardware, and as Tom's puts it "The claim it is a 2x improvement in ARM power and battery life isn't too far off the mark."

Can this K1 chip's next 4 Denver cores in a 20nm generation go head to head with the rest of Intel Core i3 -- in  a mainstream laptop or PC?        
Looks like mebbe it could, and offer 2x battery life and better graphics as well.





"Nvidia’s benchmarks show that Denver is roughly twice as fast as Cortex A15 R3, Krait 400 and Silvermont/Bay Trail. It even beats Intel’s mainstream Haswell Celeron CPU in the majority of tests. Of course we have to leave any final judgements until we have hardware in our own hands for testing, but these numbers do suggest that Nvidia’s use of the phrase “doubles the performance” might not be far from the mark."

Please note that all of these future Tegra K1 versions will actually occur before Intel can get any volume production out of their new 14nm designs, designs which according to Intel only supposedly offer a meager 5% speed increase over Intel's current Haswell offerings.

Google always picks the best of the best each year to go inside the Google Nexus for that particular year -- this year's Nexus product will have a Tegra K1 inside it.

Apple's dual core 20nm A8 is going to look a little pale besides the Tegra K1 Denver and the Samsung Exynos 5433, 5480 and 5483 all of which will all launch this fall at the same time the Apple A8 debuts.

Intel has nothing really new or different in the pipeline until fall of next year, nothing that isn't just another rename of the same exact chipsets that they have been selling as loss leaders for two years now.

Intel is treading water pending its next big reorganization, in other words.

Samsung’s first 64-bit 20nm Octa-core chip could launch on September 3rd inside the Galaxy Note 4 smartphone



Big question (not yet confirmed) is that this chip will be the first 64bit 20nm chipset that will actually throw some L functions even with Android L not being officially available yet (the full 64 bit completely optimized Android version of L that is).  

Reports are that this chipset will still get right on up there with the current Tegra K1 in both benchmarks and performance AS SHIPPED  and once the Android L (64 bit version) is out and has been optimized for each of the 8 each 64 bit ARM cores and the Mali 704 graphics set is properly configured for compute sharing in L then this phone will EXCEED the Tegra K1 Denver's performance level and force NVIDA go ahead and release the next 4 core 64 bit Denver version early.

 see.... it's me -- unlock yourself

Some of the L new stuff is coming with this phone, even in advance of the release of Android L.  

All of this is intended to crowd Apple and their release of the A8 20nm chipset in the new larger iPhone.



Samsung and Apple, gotta feel all the love there ..... them hocky sticks are jest a flyin' up against them helmets.   <CRACK !!!>   <WACK !!!>   <THUD !!!>


Speaking of all that S-A love (and rushing some advanced stuff off to market just to be the first and so as to stick your middle bird finger way up in Apple's eyeball socket at the same time) -- didn't Samsung foul up their first Octa-Core release 3 years ago by sending it out in a phone before the ARM software and drivers and hardware interfaces were completely cooked?

Just reminding you that you swore you'd never do that again .....        

Tegra K1 is NOT going to create any bobble at the 64 bit change over point -- they will wait until their Denver cores are ready and the software to support it is out there in Android and Chrome and everything is known to be working at optimum.    

Samsung, however,  is rushing things again, lifting entire portions of pre-release L code and putting into next week's phone release  --  is this a potential for a big  big woopsie yet again?  

Companies and their corporate egos -- what can you say?

Samsung, being their own foundry, can correct any shortcoming very quickly on the fly or if needed release a new improved version very quickly.   They have done this with Exynos 5 Octa-Core A-15 family four times during the 3 years it lasted.  

A flagship chipset at Samsung never sticks around more than 1 year before being superseded with something better.

But still, I wouldn't buy this first phone unless the full L Android 64 bit software is completely released -- no way in hell.