Some bold pundits are beginning to predict on the Win 10 success factor.
None of them are predicting Win 10 is going to be a smash hit, because they already know what is in it and how not quite fast it performs on the current hardware.
(remember,
Intel failed to bring out the crop of new, cheap superchips to make Win 10 run quick like a bunny on PC hardware).
Win 10 is a more complex, bulkier OS system --- it is the largest PC system Intel has ever put out as an OS product.
So much so that Intel has plans to keep roughly half of it up in the cloud at all times on chromekiller and mobile products, and only bring the other portions of the OS down from the cloud as needed. In this manner, Intel can claim it "fits" on modern mobile products like chromekillers and 7" tablets and the like.
Can you say "slow, slow, slow, wifi / drive light always flashing" three times fast?
Next cause of concern is that MS is NOT being forthcoming at all about what happens in a year when "free Win 10" ends. This lack of honest disclosure has many pundits looking at the whole Win 10 deal askance, like it it was some form of Ponzi scheme that pays off well early on but fails miserably when the whole truth becomes known.
Lastly, the "free Win 10" thing keeps getting excluded from this old hardware and that old hardware --- based on some old licensing issues that MS is trying to dodge the bullet upon.
Easy way to say it is -- Win 10 is free to anybody that has an ACTIVE license agreement that MS wishes to abrogate and to end early, not by defaulting, but by substituting Win 10 in place of the existing agreement.
Business isn't going for this, they have a TREMENDOUS investment in Win 7 and fully intend to stick with it for their full license period.
Bluntly, nothing out there in the consumer desktop/laptop PC arena is going to make Win 10 a runaway success as there is no large pent up demand in that market that is going to burst out into a huge violent success story for MS. They will get them a sales bump in 2015, make no mistake about it as they will spend 10's of millions in advertising, etc. to get those sales.
Win 10 will not be countable as a real success until the Win 10 Mobile portion comes out and takes large ONGOING large market share chunk away from Android and Apple products. Mobile is where all future growth will be, and MS must have success there in mobile to grow in any real fashion out into the future.
The best MS can hope for on the desktop right now is to slow or stop the desktop Chromebook bleeding, and this is what is predicted for the next two years --- a slowed to slightly reversed rate of decline to less than 5%, perhaps even up to some single digit positive numbers --- with late 2015 & early 2016 likely running up into positive growth space for a short period of time while the ad dollars and bribe dollars are still flowing freely.
When the big builder support dollars stop, so does the positive growth.
MS PC has been declining at 4% to 6% year on year which has been a steady decline for 6 years now -- MS will count their Win 10 a real success
if two years from now that decline figure is still less than 5% (that means that Win 10 was good enough to maintain MS's current position in the world marketplace).
During this same period of time some completely new disruptive technologies will be invented (the phone/PC is just one known example of these potential disruptors) that will take market share away from PC space --- we are talking
unknown new stuff that is really independent of what MS does or doesn't do.
And remember, MS is not fast on their feet -- this Win 9 rework dragged on for three years before they had to rename it Win 10 to keep the delay from sounding ridiculous. And the net result has NOT been a lighter faster better OS product as originally promised.
MS's ugly baby has a new tank top and diaper that matches its blanket, plus a little bit of facial makeup to make the smile prettier. And since the baby is actually 4+ years old now, it can actually talk some now (and hopefully will become somewhat more mobile sometime soon as well).

It is still Satya's ugly four year old baby.
Remember, Satya just condensed his management structure to remove the upper management
of an entire division section of his company, so you can see that further MS "condensing" is already planned to take place inside the next two years.