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Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly (Read 1788 times)
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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #135 - 08/21/14 at 19:39:03
 
http://wikibon.org/wiki/v/Intel_Nightmare_Worsens_with_Wearable_Devices_and_6...

Intel Nightmare Worsens with Wearable Devices and 64-Bit ARM Processors



What is bad is when you look at this chart realize it is done to real scale, showing the current relative market share of x86 and ARM of the various types.

Realize also that the predictions of years past have actually come true now to a large degree and Intel is down to #7 position as a chipbuilder and they are getting lapped now by Allwinner and Mediatek and what used to the the "smaller folks" like that.    

Hint:  they ain't the little guys any more, not by a long shot.    Intel is the little guy now, the little guy with the arterial "loss leader" money spray coming from his neck.   Next summer will see Intel making up an integrated ARM chipset with somebody else as the lead design partner (with Intel being just the bankroll and fab to the other guy's ARM based designs).    

Intel will get them yet another management change about then as well, as they will really really need some skilled management that comes from an integrated ARM background.  

Microsoft admitting they are the OS system for only 14% of all devices isn't a shocker when you look at this chart, you can see a clear prediction that they will be less than 10% pretty soon.

Look sharp for Microsoft's last hurrah attempt at making an x86 OS "become relevant" to take place and peter out by this upcoming New Years Eve.    Look to see Win 9 be refined for ARM twice in 2015 - 2016.

AMD and INVIDIA are both proposing 20nm 4-8 core chipsets composed of 4-8 A57 "big" cores that will be sold as laptop / PC / server chipsets.   These chipsets are not really intended to run off of batteries per se (but they can do a battery powered laptop as at 20nm and below ARM will be that much more energy efficient compared to the old Intel tech of the past).  

Samsung already has one of these 4/8 core A57 SOCs in production at 20nm right now as we speak.

Apple is already working on an A9 big 'um (4 A57 cores) for their own personal use, Intel has already been formally notified that if they cannot get "green" to match Apple's idea of a green computing machine that they are going to be gone model by model starting sometimes late next year.

Just look at the chart and read the news as it comes rolling in -- x86 will be practically gone within 2 years and unless MS gets serious about programming a really fast trim light OS that runs  really really well on ARM (look at Apple's iOS for a current example) then MS is toast as well.

Industry pundits have seen the future coming, and it is ARM all the way ......   ARM will march down 20nm, 16nm, 14nm and 10nm within about 6-8 years.

     (or quicker)

ARM still needs that good general purpose fast light OS though, and that is still an open switch at this time.
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« Last Edit: 08/24/14 at 15:44:54 by Oldfeller »  

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #136 - 08/22/14 at 10:19:24
 

ARM needs a good fast light general purpose OS at this point in time.

Here are some facts that apply to this need.   PC desktops are aging out and are not being replaced 100% with new same style PC desktop units.

Linux distros are a small subset of the PC desktop and Linux distros (yeah, Ubuntu) is going away numerically more quickly at this point in time as old machines (their natural turf) are being replaced by the other more modern sorts of computing types.   Ubuntu took a big uptick number-wise when China contracted with Ubuntu to build them a secure PC operating system, but now that that is all last year type stuff the Ubuntu trend goes back to its natural decline and continues declining.

Ubuntu as a business lost 21 million dollars this year, this is twice the amount of money that it was funded with originally.    Ubuntu is losing more money on each of its extended forays into business, save one (1) profitable effort which is Ubuntu network stack software.

Because of patterning itself somewhat after Windows 8.0, Ubuntu took a huge popularity hit on its Unity Desktop Interface with the common man, Joe Linux.   Ubuntu has never recovered from this mistake.

So, desktop is slowly declining and it is taking most of Linux distros with it.

So, what does that leave for an ARM based light fast general purpose OS system?

Android, Chrome and Microsoft

The new 45% smaller Microsoft has got to finish divesting all the old OS systems and Explorer versions that it can no longer afford to support -- then it has to refocus on the task before it, which will be ARM and Intel.  
By then it should be becoming clear what processor type will be the winner in that race.

Google, I am afraid, isn't focused enough on what they are doing in the software OS arena.   They make voluntary progress by little fits and starts and Google's attention wanders off into the weeds periodically.

The Linaro model, where software is purposefully created by a consortium of hardware vendors who fund the programmers and keep them focused directly on the tasks at hand seems to be the best model for a future light fast general ARM OS.

Android, Tizen, Sailfish, Memo, Reactos, Linux --- all of these FOSS code bases already exist to be tapped by a Linaro style FOSS programming consortium.

Microsoft or a Linaro type Consortium, with Google Chrome as a disorganized outside chance.

Somebody will eventually write what is needed, a fully featured ARM fast light general purpose OS.
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« Last Edit: 08/23/14 at 18:23:34 by Oldfeller »  

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #137 - 08/23/14 at 00:53:48
 

$199 HP Stream Machine news


OK, HP yanked all the product spec stuff off the web and hid it from the public, but the service arm of the HP company has indeed posted a PDF of the service manual for the completed unit as it is concepted as of now.    It tells you all there is to know about the unit, complete with part numbers.   It also tells you there is WIDE LATTITUDE in parts which can be sold in different marketplaces -- this is not a monolithic same-same product by any means.   It can be changed on the fly if needed improvement parts already exist.

http://h10032.www1.hp.com/ctg/Manual/c04400176.pdf

Got some last minute refinements to the design showing up here, example the big arsed heat sink is bigger and is now made of copper for better thermal conductivity.

The copper heat sink is now as big as the entire motherboard.
Shocked

The entirety of the SOC heat produced total thermal heat flow exits the machine straight up, through the left hand upper half of the keyboard.
The other side of that flow hits the bottom of the case and then the operator's lap in a more concentrated fashion since it has no heat spreader or thermal packing on that side.  

One assumes the case mounted Mullins sensor is located right there which will see that concentrated heat and dial things back too quickly.

The bottom of the case and the user's lap will catch the short term concentrated radiated heat of the turbo'd processor against a small patch of case/lap with no intentional spreading effect .....  not good if that part of the case is resting directly on skin at the time.

Adding another large very thin heat sink over the bottom inside of the case might be a smart thing to help with any adverse user heat impressions by spreading that heat out over a large area.  

This would also perhaps allow the unit to use the Mullins SOC turbo function more effectively for much longer durations without cutting it off prematurely. 

Such ongoing structural tweeks would show some pretesting of finished units is going on, changes are being made and real production is imminent.   It does not reflect all the final changes, some of which will come from purchaser feedback and early failure analysis.


=======================


Why is this unit worth following?

Microsoft "lives or dies" by this unit as their "ability to be desirable" will be reflected by the performance of this unit.

It goes head to head with the Chromebooks with same exact model made by same vendor in both ChromeOS and Windows versions.
It is a perfect review case of the good vs the bad for both system types.

By choking off all spec info, Microsoft and HP has tried to make the pre-Christmas debut a marketing event not based upon any prior facts, actually trying to get "emotional purchasing factors" to control the impulse purchasing of the machines as they apparently perceive "knowing all the facts" could be getting in the way of sales at this time.

By losing track of the PDF Service Manual, HP has now let all them wayward kitty cats out of the sack accidentally.

Heat and Battery Life will be the issues of the day with the Stream Machine (and moderate new efforts to minimize these issues already show up in the HP Service Manual).  Battery now lists in the component listing as a 32watt/hour battery (battery size was increased considerably, from 24 up to 29 up to 32 watt/hour).    

New bigger copper heat sink on the processor itself tries to put all the heat out under the keyboard proper, keeping it away from the new much larger battery by and large.

Good thing to know they thought about these things and tried to fix these issues (somewhat) ahead of time, this is a good thing for HP to have done.    

Issue remains that it still has only 32 or 64 gigs of soldered in place eMMC memory for the local storage "hard drive" (but it does allow you to plug in a SIMM card for up to 128 gig of slower additional storage, so this isn't really a deal killer).

"Includes 32-GB of eMMC for use in models without the Windows operating system" is something new, that mebbe hints at a Mullins SOC based Chromebook is to come later, or perhaps an Ubuntu based machine is in the works for Europe/Far East.

Windows OS and MS Office will eat up a good bit of this faster standard 32 gig hard drive space, which could be dodged a bit by making Office Online the default operating Office.  HP looks to sell an upgraded unit with double the systems memory but since the eMMC is soldered-in-place NON-replaceable eMMC look to see users upgrading memory with cheaper SIMM memory cards on down the road, purchased on sale for far far less money than HP wants for the "bought at a premium" eMMC upgrade Stream units.

We shall see  .....

Go guys, put you together a really really good loss leader Chromebook killer and I hope you really really make a good showing with it.


Competition is good, and you will make all them Chromebooks respond by getting better in return.   Google responds fairly well to direct challenges, which they need so they too will get better faster.

Trust me, users and reviewers will compare the units and offer up their comments on YouTube to both camps -- both of which should listen and make the necessary changes ASAP.

Verslagen may be buying 2-3 of these thingies ASAP at $199 for his college kiddies if the reviews are really good and they actually really do provide the full Windows experience in a light weight inexpensive unit.
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« Last Edit: 08/24/14 at 16:33:13 by Oldfeller »  

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #138 - 08/23/14 at 18:56:09
 

Proposed user based tweeks to the Steam Machine for increased performance and comfort.


If the warranty period is a good long one and you can open the case bottom without voiding a over-the-screw warranty sticker we got you some easy do tweeks to let the Mullens SOC run in turbo longer (for better performance) especially when run static off of your power supply.

Pop the bottom, locate the mullins case mounted heat sensor (not shown in the Service Manual) and move it over to the side away from the SOC.   Go to a craft store and buy some sheet copper and make up a bottom of case heat sink.   Positively space it away from the motherboard using rubber washers & glue to keep it from shorting out anything.

Goal is to partially defeat the mullins sensor so turbo mode can run longer on a stationary desk unit, while giving better heat dissipation to both sides of the mother board.

They make fan sets that go under a laptop to do this exact same sort of thing -- if you are boosting your Stream Machine  intentionally for gaming purposes you may want to get one of these.

Wink

At $199 totally price supported, lots & lots of tweekers are going to buy one of these to take apart and play with as it is actually in the same price range as their current "completed" hobby board rig ups.

Raspberry Pi has made an entire new ecosystem of tweekers out there, as well as all the Linux geeks that were already pre-existing.

Linux geeks will like this machine ---- a whole lot.


Me, I will catch one refurbed on NewEgg or WOOT for $100 or there abouts if I decide I want one .....  refurbs will be in abundance on this one after a couple of months as lots of MS lovers will knee jerk buy one expecting a real laptop and be all "disappointed" at it.
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« Last Edit: 08/24/14 at 06:20:19 by Oldfeller »  

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OK.... so what's the
speed of dark?

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #139 - 08/23/14 at 20:12:54
 
Using my own personal speedreading technique, to scan the previous article,... Post #137...
I came up with...
"European Muslims are cooking radioactive muffins on their keyboards using aluminum foil, to kill...
...it's spreading internationally... but it takes longer than cutting off heads"...

Huh...
So frightening,... I had to reread it at normal speed...
Whew!... we're all safe... Grin...
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Ludicrous Speed !... ... Huh...
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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #140 - 08/23/14 at 20:52:47
 
The link leads to this

HP Stream Notebook PC
Maintenance and Service Guide
IMPORTANT! This document is intended for
HP authorized service providers only


If you went to Muslim muffin killers, Inc. you got hacked.


Smiley     and yes, just for you, Serowbot I will post the pictures of people cooking an egg in a little folded tin foil square tray right over the affected section of the keyboard ....
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« Last Edit: 08/25/14 at 19:42:11 by Oldfeller »  

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #141 - 08/23/14 at 21:03:39
 

The Chrome community is reacting to the HP Streambook news by scratching their heads and saying .....

"Hmmmm, can the $199 14" HP Chromebook 3 model using that better performing, cheaper AMD Mullins SOC be very far behind?"  

"Hmmmm, can I stick that big arsed 32 watt/hour battery into my original first generation puny assed dual core black HP 14" Pavillion Chromebook?"
   
.... Nope, you'd be better off to steal the 50 watt/hour battery from the brand new thinner neater HP 14" Intel based Chromebook 2 that comes in the 3 new colors -- MUCH bigger battery.

"Hmmmm, can the $199 14" HP Chromebook actually boot up Win 8.1 into run memory and still hold open a dozen web pages and actually do a spreadsheet recalculation all while trying to run on only two gigs of soldered in non-upgradable systems memory?"  

"Our Chromebooks automatically offload processor intensive tasks to Google's Cloud Servers so our Chromebooks never slows down much due to processor or memory constraints.  I thought Win 8.1 had to run pretty much locally on the laptop's natural hardware?"
 

Grin

They also wonder about boot speed, updates, antivirus, sandboxed protection against the unfortunate but commonplace malicious websites, etc. etc. etc.

They understand what the Google Processor Farm cloud support means for their Chrome machines, and they like it.

They don't act worried at all.     This is because they already use Chromebooks and Chromeboxes and they understand them just fine -- and they remember MS "freestanding" OS products entirely too well, and they understand the cost of MS 360 and MS On Line Store purchases also.  

Much of the Chrome store is free, remember.

Some plans are being speculated about putting Ubuntu on the machine, but expectations are fairly low right now because as a MS loss leader funded device it will be locked down on the OS six ways from Sunday.   MS will require it.

Still, when it goes to refurb or sell off, by then they will know a way to get around that lock down .....


=========================


The very large very open public debate this will promote over Win vs Chrome may actually be detrimental to MS as they fumble their way on into Win 9.    Certainly, it will muddy the water a bit for any planned real Win 9 improvements that are planned to come out next month.

Them Chromebooks didn't become popular by accident, they actually do better for the facebook/sudoko crowd than a MS laptop can do.   Chromebooks are growing primarily among women based upon word of mouth from friends and relatives.     Women hate feeling stupid, and Windows OS products did that big-time.

MS will get an earful to incorporate into Win 9 though -- if they listen, that is.   Not really so good at that listening thing however, 'ol MS .....

Intel is going to lose part of their Chromebook market share if they don't watch out.  

To AMD, which just gripes them to no end ..... and AMD will make money doing it using standard cheap plentiful ARM 28nm lithography, which gripes Intel even further.

AMD already has a fully integrated SOC that runs on low cost dirt cheap plentiful ARM standard 28nm lithography, something Intel is wishing/hoping that Rockchip will purty please do for them by late next summer ....  next summer when AMD goes down to 20nm with everybody else in ARM land.

Wink      

Example:  the Streambook's integrated AMD Mullins SOC motherboard is half the size of an Intel based motherboard.
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« Last Edit: 08/24/14 at 16:47:51 by Oldfeller »  

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Re: Chromebox predictions coming true very quickly
Reply #142 - 08/24/14 at 15:36:52
 


This was an old projection chart that actually came true one year earlier than expected.    

Much of this percent based chart is driven by the radical growth in total computing, the overall pie chart is getting much much bigger so non-growing sectors show up as "shrinking" on this area chart.

Move the years scale to the left by one year to line up the chart up with the current reality.


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