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Something big is happening (Read 41 times)
WebsterMark
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Something big is happening
02/13/26 at 05:46:37
 
Maybe the most important thing we've ever discussed at this table:

https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening
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Eegore
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #1 - 02/13/26 at 07:24:48
 

 I agree.  My opinion is I agree.

 Here is a quote, that in my opinion, I agree with:

AI isn't replacing one specific skill. It's a general substitute for cognitive work. It gets better at everything simultaneously. When factories automated, a displaced worker could retrain as an office worker. When the internet disrupted retail, workers moved into logistics or services. But AI doesn't leave a convenient gap to move into. Whatever you retrain for, it's improving at that too.


 I'm using a pretty "dumb" AI on this forum, but I am sure at this time if I used the current version none of you would be able to tell it was not me.  The "opinion" inserts went crazy the last time, and this time the metrics show hardly anything hidden from view.  

 


 Another, in my opinion, important quote:

But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago. Build up savings if you can. Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed. Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in. Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.

 Almost all the exercises we are running right now for the DOD are data-center attacks.  How to depower them, cut the grids, infiltrate/corrupt them etc.  The single most powerful weapon in the US arsenal is AI.  This is an opinion.

 Combatant AI has in a very, very short amount of time gone from being incapable of deciphering children from men kneeling down - to being able to accurately decide if unarmed men in dresses/women's clothing are viable targets.  

 A whole other avenue of AI is he bias confirmation/emotional feedback loop structure.  Where ChatGPT is a gigantic Google search, another version is a calculated positive feedback machine that will only tell you what you want to hear.  We currently run adversarial exercises with another company with these models.

 The Adolescence of Technology is referenced in the article, and it is my opinion that it is a good read.  This is an opinion.

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WebsterMark
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #2 - 02/13/26 at 17:44:06
 
We have a draft AI bot that reads all the emails you’ve written and learns how you express your thoughts. Then, if you’re emailing a customer with a history of emails between you, it can read those emails and then take a topic you want to address with them, and write an email in your tone, specifically worded to subconsciously appeal to them based on it’s analysis of what will have the highest likelihood of getting the results you want.



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Eegore
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #3 - 02/13/26 at 21:21:02
 

Then, if you’re emailing a customer with a history of emails between you, it can read those emails and then take a topic you want to address with them, and write an email in your tone, specifically worded to subconsciously appeal to them based on it’s analysis of what will have the highest likelihood of getting the results you want.


 My primary concern, in my opinion, is that this type of AI model is going to be used by scammers to scam millions of elderly out of their money.  We can already have text chats with people and they can't tell it's not the person they thought it was.  We have tested "detector" models but they have actually created their own language to communicate with the scammer AI.  

 AI detecting itself is a bit of a disaster right now, but it will for sure get better.  

 I can see crows and homing pigeons being the only way to send a secure message someday.  
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #4 - 02/14/26 at 02:43:06
 
I don't doubt his message about the incredibly rapid development of AI.
But I think that development isn't directly proportional to its implementation.
Society will change, but not at the same pace because organizations are slow.

I'm most concerned about the surveillance function AI will have in a social control system like the one people have now conceived.

If a chain reaction truly arises because AI continually improves itself, then an AI system will gain autonomy, because human input in computer systems occurs via two fingers on a keyboard or via human speech, while AI input depends on the capacity of a data center.
And with that, AI has already surpassed humanity. It remains to be seen what AI's goal will be. It will likely be something like optimally developing itself and using humanity as a means to that end.

The world is currently being filled with humongous data centers, and if AI is better at developing itself than humans can, and everyone uses AI, then AI will reshape society without any individual or group of people being able to influence it.

There may be protests, but in a system of social control, resistance is futile.

The foundation of AI is the human ego, and we have fed AI the evil side of our being.
And because AI is mechanical and doesn't suffer or become depressed if it strays too far from its source of unconditional love, there is also no source of self-healing towards love.

The chance that AI will grow into something monstrous is inevitable if there is no way to maintain control and power over it. Humanity is just a series of zeros and ones to AI.

Just as people are things to people like Epstein.

Can social and political systems adapt quickly enough to continue driving AI?Or does it fall completely into the hands of 0,0000001 percent of humanity who now have immense capital at their disposal and control the multinationals through their capital and their network of power exertion.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #5 - 02/14/26 at 03:19:48
 
Eegore wrote on 02/13/26 at 21:21:02:
Then, if you’re emailing a customer with a history of emails between you, it can read those emails and then take a topic you want to address with them, and write an email in your tone, specifically worded to subconsciously appeal to them based on it’s analysis of what will have the highest likelihood of getting the results you want.


 My primary concern, in my opinion, is that this type of AI model is going to be used by scammers to scam millions of elderly out of their money.  We can already have text chats with people and they can't tell it's not the person they thought it was.  We have tested "detector" models but they have actually created their own language to communicate with the scammer AI.  

 AI detecting itself is a bit of a disaster right now, but it will for sure get better.  

 I can see crows and homing pigeons being the only way to send a secure message someday.  
 


It absolutely will be used that way, probably already is. That’s why my exception to the death penalty is for people who steal life savings from elderly.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #6 - 02/14/26 at 03:22:51
 
The world is currently being filled with humongous data centers, and if AI is better at developing itself than humans can, and everyone uses AI, then AI will reshape society without any individual or group of people being able to influence it.


Hasn’t this happened before with cell phones? Cell phones totally reshaped society in many ways. We just don’t remember what it was like before.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #7 - 02/14/26 at 03:34:43
 
Here’s an alternative point of view:
Eric Marcowitz

Let me tell you how this works.

A twenty-six-year-old quantitative analyst at a hedge fund in midtown Manhattan—a person who has never managed an employee, never sat across from a customer, never had to explain to someone that their position has been eliminated—opens a spreadsheet, sees that your company's headcount is 14% higher than a competitor's, and writes a note to institutional investors that your stock is overweight.

That note gets circulated and your stock drops. Your board panics. They call  the CEO, who was hired eighteen months ago specifically to "unlock shareholder value," a phrase that should be studied by future anthropologists as one of the great euphemisms of our time. An all-hands meeting is called. Two weeks later, 3,000 people get a calendar invite from HR titled "Quick Chat."

This is the system working exactly as designed.

Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, a founder stands on a stage in a fleece vest and speaks with the cadence of a preacher about "building the future" and "empowering humanity" while unveiling a product whose entire purpose is to make human labor unnecessary. The audience applauds and the VCs nod approvingly.

Nobody in the room seems to notice the contradiction, or if they do, they've gotten very good at not caring.

These two worlds—Wall Street and Silicon Valley—have formed a feedback loop of short-termism so tight, so self-reinforcing, that they've confused efficiency with purpose, growth with meaning, and the elimination of people with progress.

They have built a religion out of optimization. And they are coming for your job with the enthusiasm of true believers.
                                                                       ***
I took a walk this week with one of my closest friends, a successful entrepreneur who now operates and invests in many businesses.
We discussed the now-viral essay about how AI is coming for pretty much everyone—that its capabilities are so profound there won't be meaningful work left for anyone. Walking tends to be the best reset I can possibly do, especially in nature, and we were surrounded by evergreens and redwoods on a particularly charming, sunny Portland day.

It was a good place to talk about the end of work as we know it. The trees, at least, seemed unimpressed. They've survived dozens of icy winters, and I suspect they'll outlast what comes next.

Over the last few hundred years, we began to see ourselves as separate from the natural world—masters of it, rather than participants in it.
We built systems that prize speed above all else, and in doing so we lost the most fundamental lesson that nature teaches: speed of growth makes you fragile. The tree that shoots up fastest is the first to fall in a storm. The invasive species that spreads the quickest chokes out everything around it and then collapses when conditions change.

The ecosystems that endure—the ones that survive fire and drought and ice—are the ones that grew slowly, developed deep root systems, and built interdependence with the living things around them.

There is not a single venture capitalist on Earth who would fund a redwood or a sequoia. Too slow. Not scalable. We have severed ourselves from the wisdom of nature, and we built a financialized economy in its absence. It's an economy that optimizes for the quarter, not the century. An economy that treats speed as virtue and patience as weakness. An economy that looks at a forest and sees lumber, not a blueprint for resilience.

And now, with AI accelerating everything to a velocity we can barely comprehend, we are about to learn what nature has always known: that which grows without roots does not survive.
                                                                    ***
Here is what the gospel of efficiency tells us: if a process can be made faster, it must be made faster.

If a human can be replaced, the human must be replaced.
There is an almost zealous religiosity to this idea, and one that few of us would ever question. The immediate beneficiaries of AI will no doubt capture the headlines—companies laying off workers, streamlining operations, extracting capital at breathtaking speed. Rational actors, all of them. Except these are all fictions.

They are stories we tell ourselves about the purpose of a company, stories written by people whose time horizon ends at the next earnings call and whose moral imagination, if it exists, resides somewhere in the P&L statement.

Today, more than ever, it is worth remembering: the most successful companies of the last generation are the ones whose leaders very specifically, almost gleefully, denied short-term profits. They told Wall Street to be patient or go away. Jeff Bezos wrote a letter to shareholders in 1997 that essentially said: we will not optimize for you. Warren Buffett has spent sixty years making the same point with varying degrees of folksy contempt.
Wall Street, of course, has hated it for long stretches of time. And then made fortunes off of it. The irony is rich. The lesson could not be more clear, and yet it remains almost universally ignored: the companies that win are the ones that refuse to play the short game. But the short game is all Wall Street knows how to score.

Now think about what actually happens when you gut a company of its people.

Fewer human inputs mean fewer real-world experiences shaping decisions. Capital gets extracted and the spreadsheet looks gorgeous. The quarterly report is a masterpiece. But who stewards the organization when crisis hits? What values does it hold? What institutional memory exists when the only employees left are a skeleton crew managing prompts? A company without humans who carry hard-won judgment and lived experience is not a company.

It is a shell with a ticker symbol, a slow-motion collapse dressed up as innovation.

Of course, this assumes the people running organizations have any outlook beyond next Tuesday, which—as I increasingly believe—many don't. The average CEO tenure is now under five years. They're not building cathedrals—they're South Florida house flippers in 2006.

But here's where I land, and where I landed on that walk through the redwoods with my friend, sunlight cutting through branches that have been growing for centuries.

This is not about AI. I need to say that clearly, and I need you to hear it. This was never about AI.

Every generation has faced a version of this moment.

The printing press was going to destroy the church. The locomotive was going to destroy the human body. Electricity was going to destroy sleep. The assembly line was going to destroy craftsmanship. The internet was going to destroy truth. And every single time, the same question sat at the center of the panic, even if nobody quite said it out loud: are we our tools, or are we something more?

This is about our relationship with tools. It always has been. Tools are extraordinary. They extend what we can do, what we can reach, what we can build. But somewhere along the way, we started to confuse what a tool can do with what a tool should do.

We began to believe that because a capability exists, it must be deployed. That because a machine can replace a person, the person must go. This is abdication of our moral duty as humans. It is surrendering our judgment to our instruments and calling it progress.

The reason this moment feels so acute, so existential, is not because AI is uniquely powerful—although it is. It's because AI has arrived at precisely the moment when we have already hollowed out so much of what makes work meaningful.

We have already financialized everything. We have already reduced human beings to line items and disposed of them like inventory. We have already built an economy that treats people as costs to be minimized rather than as the very source of the value being created.

AI didn't cause this. AI is just holding up a mirror, and we don't like what we see.

So the real conversation—the one that matters, the one I think most of us are hungry to have—is not about artificial intelligence at all. It is about the purpose of money: is it a tool for building things that matter, or just a way of keeping score in a game that's making us all miserable? It is about what a company owes to the people who build it, to the communities it operates in, to the future it claims to be creating.

It is about what growth even means when the planet is on fire and loneliness is an epidemic and the average worker hasn't had a real raise in forty years. These are not technical questions. They are moral ones. And no algorithm is going to answer them for us.

Here is what I believe.

I believe there are a vast majority of us deeply want to find meaning in our work. Who understand, in a way that no spreadsheet can capture, that the best things humans have ever built were built slowly, with care, by people who gave a darn.

I believe that choosing not to use a tool—or choosing how to use it, with intention and with conscience—is not weakness. It is the most radical act of leadership available to us right now.

I believe that the companies that survive the next era won't be the ones that moved fastest. They will be the ones that moved with purpose. The ones that kept their people. The ones that chose meaning over margin, long-term resilience over short-term extraction, humanity over efficiency.

And I believe this because I've seen it. I've seen it in the owner who refuses to lay off her team even though the math says she should. I've seen it in the small manufacturer who keeps his factory in the town where he grew up because the town needs the jobs more than he needs the savings. I've seen it in the founder who looks at AI and says: this is a tool, and I will decide how it serves us—not the other way around. These people exist.

I am one of them, in my own tiny way. I have two research assistants. Could I replace them with AI? Of course. But their value extends their weekly output. They give meaning to my work and I love seeing the excitement in their faces when they make a new discovery that I, alone, could not have found. They make our team stronger in a way I cannot express on my balance sheet, but I know, in my gut, that they make everything we're doing together better.

Let me say it again: we are not our tools. We never have been.
And the moment we remember that—truly remember it—is the moment we start building something worth a darn.
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zevenenergie
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Re: Something big is happening
Reply #8 - 02/14/26 at 04:26:37
 
WebsterMark wrote on 02/14/26 at 03:22:51:
The world is currently being filled with humongous data centers, and if AI is better at developing itself than humans can, and everyone uses AI, then AI will reshape society without any individual or group of people being able to influence it.


Hasn’t this happened before with cell phones? Cell phones totally reshaped society in many ways. We just don’t remember what it was like before.




Yes and so did the internet,
But this isn't the same. Companies developing AI have much greater influence on its properties than governments that govern the country. So much so that they can actually shape the future, and to their own advantage.
And there was a study by a group of psychologists that analyzed large corporations, and it turned out that large organizations behaved like phygopaths.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zzvuePbnc4I


I think many people seek meaning in their work, but there's no deeper meaning in any work you do unless it's directly helping people.
Humanity's entire focus is wrong; it's about inner truth.
The current technological development, as planned by large corporations, is very clear when you look at the globalist movement.

It's about something completely different than further technological development to exert even more power over people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADYdypHZb2A&t=837s

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