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Good argument (Read 30 times)
WebsterMark
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Good argument
Today at 07:07:34
 
“ Iran was trying to use the North Korean model to get a nuke: create sufficient conventional deterrence so you won’t be challenged in acquiring one (it’s called the Seoul Hostage Problem).

This has been explained over and over since day one.

Everyone claiming shifting goalposts or no imminent threat has been lying.

The reason North Korea was allowed to get nukes is because Seoul (and its 10 million inhabitants) is within artillery and rocket range of North Korea.

During the 1994 nuclear crisis, the Clinton administration seriously considered airstrikes on North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor but backed off precisely because of the artillery threat to Seoul.

Iran was trying to accomplish the same by stockpiling missiles and drones which would have had the same deterrent effect. The proof is what Iran has been doing in the past month: attacking all its neighbors in order to pressure the US to stop attacking it

Beyond this, they were building medium-range ballistic missiles that could reach Paris and London, meaning all of Europe could be held hostage as they built a nuclear bomb.

The reason Iran has not built a nuclear weapon until now is not because it couldn’t, but because it knew it would be attacked and denied this capability.

So by allowing them to continue developing this conventional deterrence, you would be allowing Iran to get a nuclear weapon.

And unlike North Korea, Iran is led by an eschatological death cult

Reagan saw nuclear mutually assured destruction (MAD) as both morally bankrupt (because of the innocent-body-count problem) and dangerously fragile because it assumed flawless rationality between adversaries…this means it only takes one irrational actor to destroy the world.

Working backwards from the conclusion that Iran’s Islamist regime must never have a nuclear weapon, it was necessary for the US to attack Iran to deny it the conventional capacity to hold the entire eastern hemisphere hostage.

Every European leader knows this and behind the scenes praises the US for this action. But they are cowards, held hostage by their own internal Muslim populations, and so adopt these ridiculous public positions.

This was never about Israel. And if your argument is that Iran should be allowed to get a nuclear weapon then you are a fool and a traitor to western civilization…you’re a useful idiot.”
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zevenenergie
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Re: Good argument
Reply #1 - Today at 07:31:15
 
You are mixing a few real facts with a lot of assumptions here and presenting it as if it is one coherent story.

Yes, North Korea and Seoul are a well-known example of deterrence. But that does not mean there is a simple handbook that Iran simply follows. Those situations are totally different.

Furthermore, you present things as facts that are not. For example, the claim that Iran “could have built a nuclear weapon long ago” has not been proven. In fact, there has been discussion and inspection regarding that for years.

Also, the statement that “Europe could be held hostage” is mostly rhetoric. It sounds threatening, but it is not a sober analysis. And it is not perceived as a serious threat here either.

What stands out most: anyone who disagrees with you is “lying” or is a “traitor.” That is not an argument; that is simply shutting down the conversation.

If your point were strong, you wouldn't need that kind of language.
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Re: Good argument
Reply #2 - Today at 07:39:13
 
Mark, maybe they used the same method to acquiring these weapons but I think for different reason.

Those in Iran believe it is their duty to bring the entire world into their theocracy, which, much like God and Noah, required the mass destruction of the world, do to it being unsalvageable with such sin and corruption.  

I believe those who wrote our Constitution saw the reality of what a theocracy is capable of, and included the separation of church and state.

But sadly folks interpret it to their own likings today.....  Embarrassed  
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“The biggest big business in America is not steel, automobiles, or television. It is the manufacture, refinement and distribution of anxiety.”—Eric Sevareid (1964)
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zevenenergie
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Re: Good argument
Reply #3 - Today at 09:26:59
 
You’re jumping from geopolitics to theology and treating that as if it explains state behavior.

Iran is a state with competing interests, factions and strategic goals, not a single religious mind trying to “destroy the world”. That’s a massive oversimplification.

Using biblical analogies like Noah doesn’t really prove anything about actual policy or military decisions. It just adds a moral layer without evidence.

Also, bringing in the Constitution and separation of church and state is more about your own framework than about Iran’s strategy.

I think you are used to living in the strongest nation in the world.
Militarily speaking, you can enforce anything, and that has been done gloriously in the past. But you are no longer the largest economy, and the petroleum dollar, the pillar of your economy, is also waning. Your army appears to have a huge limitation; it is extremely expensive.

Actually, at this moment, the roles are reversed; you are the perpetrator and the threat. We in Europe are not afraid of a bomb; it is not pleasant, but it does not instill fear here.
The fact that Iran could reach us with a nuclear bomb does not make us consider attacking Iran and, in doing so, the entire world economy.

It shouldn't have to be for you either. And if Iran were to have a nuclear bomb, it would be suicide to use it.
Because then Iran would be atomized back to the Stone Age within half an hour. But you keep looking for a good reason to justify this war. But for the reason, you have to look towards Israel.
And guess what, it wouldn't make you antisemitic.

I don't want to accuse or attack you; I think that many people in America don't realize yet what is going on.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Good argument
Reply #4 - Today at 10:33:05
 
zevenenergie wrote on Today at 07:31:15:
You are mixing a few real facts with a lot of assumptions here and presenting it as if it is one coherent story.

Yes, North Korea and Seoul are a well-known example of deterrence. But that does not mean there is a simple handbook that Iran simply follows. Those situations are totally different.

Furthermore, you present things as facts that are not. For example, the claim that Iran “could have built a nuclear weapon long ago” has not been proven. In fact, there has been discussion and inspection regarding that for years.

Also, the statement that “Europe could be held hostage” is mostly rhetoric. It sounds threatening, but it is not a sober analysis. And it is not perceived as a serious threat here either.

What stands out most: anyone who disagrees with you is “lying” or is a “traitor.” That is not an argument; that is simply shutting down the conversation.

If your point were strong, you wouldn't need that kind of language.


First off, I didn’t write this, I posted it from elsewhere.

But I stand by the point which is to imagine the difference if Iran had a nuke? Every President says Iran can’t be allowed to become a nuclear power for a reason.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Good argument
Reply #5 - Today at 10:36:44
 
Actually, at this moment, the roles are reversed; you are the perpetrator and the threat. We in Europe are not afraid of a bomb; it is not pleasant, but it does not instill fear here.
The fact that Iran could reach us with a nuclear bomb does not make us consider attacking Iran and, in doing so, the entire world economy.


If Europe is not afraid of Iran with a nuke then Europe is crazy.

That fact that Iran can’t reach you with a nuke RIGHT NOW is why you attack them RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Good argument
Reply #6 - Today at 12:24:26
 
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zevenenergie
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Re: Good argument
Reply #7 - Today at 13:38:09
 
Once upon a time, there was an enlightened man who gave daily sermons to his followers who wanted to reach his state of being.

They always came with their personal problems, the difficulties they had experienced, their fears ext. He began all his sermons with "All is well," every single day, until they would grasp it.

One day, they were all sitting in the meditation room waiting for his arrival. But he did not show up. Nor the next day. Nor the day after that. After a month of waiting in vain, it dawned on them. He had left. "All is well" was too difficult for them.

They wanted solutions to their problems, but those problems stemmed from their ignorance about "all is well." For "all is well" does not mean that circumstances must be perfect to have no problems, but that there is something other than that mental layer. A neural quality that can sometimes be felt so strongly during a full moon on an evening walk. And that walk can be in Tehran or in Huston. It does not matter. All is well, regardless of the circumstances.

Even if Iran has a nuclear bomb, all is well. America is full of opposites, and their president has gone overboard and has 5,000 nuclear weapons at his disposal. All is well. The war in Iran, all is well.

But don't misinterpret it, because the mind is cunning and takes advantage of everything. All is well.

But when do you want to awaken to "That"? When is the great shaking hard enough for you to awaken to "That"?

Do you sense "All is well"? Or is the veil to dense?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ozj3HDB-9bw
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