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NTK. (Read 161 times)
zevenenergie
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Re: NTK.
Reply #15 - Yesterday at 10:24:51
 
WebsterMark wrote on Yesterday at 09:49:20:
zevenenergie wrote on Yesterday at 06:34:11:
WebsterMark wrote on Yesterday at 05:17:09:
The petrodollar is in danger if Iran wins this conflict, because then it can dominate the other oil-producing countries in the Middle East. And the fall of the petrodollar is a major item on the agenda of China and Russia.

I ask again, WTF are you talking about? Iran has no Air Force left, they have no Navy left. They have no way to block the Straights. The other Middle Eastern countries are not going to sacrifice themselves for Iran’s sake. All Iran can do is lob what few missiles they have left at Israel and rely on the left wing of American to do what they do best which is displayed their antisemitism and try to damage Trump even if it harms America.




It seems to me that you are poorly informed.

If what you say is correct,
then why is Trump asking for NATO help regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and why has the American force withdrawn so far away due to incoming missiles against which they could hardly defend themselves? Then why are neighboring countries still being attacked with missiles and drones?

Iran has managed to disable the American radar systems in the military bases, making defense against missiles and drones no longer effective.
Israel is keeping the media channels silent because they have suffered significant damage from Iranian missiles.


Talk about misinformed. Missile attacks are down to just a couple per day.  As our drone attacks. That’s not to say they still don’t have a few left and there may be casualties in Israel but it’s like 90 to 95% less. They have not disabled our radar system.

On this topic, you makes about as much sense as Needles does on any topic. Disappointing,





I understand your disappointment, but I am not here to conform to your or anyone else's point of view. Even though the left tries to beat the right over the head with everything at their disposal.

I think that in America, people have become too accustomed to the image of America as invincible.
I have always doubted that; Vietnam and Afghanistan were good examples of this, and why would Iran be any different?
America can strike hard and fast, but that won't bring Iran down. And I hear once again that you are not correctly informed.

Our viewpoints clash, but do not do so with the aim of engaging in confrontation.
A political forum is for engaging in honest and civilized discussion as far as that is possible, but not for dismissing each other as crazy or idiotic, or for pigeonholing someone to avoid the discussion.

Today, we read in the news that Europe and England do not intend to step in and get involved in this war. And they see no benefit in protecting the Strait of Hormuz.
If the strong American Navy cannot do this, why would they be able to, is their argument.And it is not a NATO task. America started this war itself.


Perhaps this answers your question:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/us-says-it-has-destroyed-iran-missil...
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Reply #16 - Yesterday at 11:32:40
 

The moment America withdraws, Iran holds Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates hostage, and they are forced to sell in other currencies or gold, because they will not release the Strait of Hormuz. This dissolves the petrodollar.

 Ok this pretty much explains it.  You believe in some alternate outcome that is highly unrealistic.  

 Again, Jiang is far less than 100% accurate, and the outcome you describe is proof, and will be further proof once it does not happen.

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Reply #17 - Yesterday at 11:55:58
 
It,s already happening.

The countries negotiating with Iran to let their ships through are told that this is possible if they not pay for the oil whit dollars.

I'm not making this up, it's in our news.

How many billions does America want to spend to stop Iran? How many ground troops does America want to lose?

They couldn't stop the Houthis in Yemen already, and they are Shiites.
Iran has approximately 90 million inhabitants. The majority of that population is Shiite.

And you have just killed their spiritual leader.

Your 19-year-old boys who are currently watching OnlyFans and playing video games are being called up for conscription and will soon have to fight against religious fanatics. How much political readiness do you think they have?
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Reply #18 - Yesterday at 12:13:35
 

 That won't result in a collapse of the US economy.  It certainly won't result with Iran invading the US.

 Jiang is inaccurate in many of his assessments and predictions.  he is far from 100% accurate.
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Reply #19 - Yesterday at 12:25:25
 
There are many economists and experts in England, Germany, and France who contradict you.

I can post some links if you are interested.

Jiang is not my only source and he encourages critical thinking, he is not someone who imposes his opinion.
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Reply #20 - Yesterday at 12:33:08
 

There are many economists and experts in England, Germany, and France who contradict you.

 Yes I would like to see those.  I haven't seen any analysis from experts that say the US will collapse or Iran will invade it.



Jiang is not my only source and he encourages critical thinking, he is not someone who imposes his opinion.

 He is also not 100% accurate as you claim.
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Reply #21 - Yesterday at 12:41:51
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7U5-_sdthI&t=16s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htykncIO480

He is also not 100% accurate as you claim.
That is true, but he has a high degree of accuracy with his predictions. But that is not what our discussion is about right now.
It is about whether the American economy is in danger even if America withdraws, right?

Do you have studies showing that that is nonsense? Or is that just your opinion?
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Reply #22 - Yesterday at 15:42:57
 
 While I appreciate the videos I don't consider single source podcast to be "experts" in the field.

 The US has a long way to go to be solely dependent on Iran for the US economy to exist.  This argument relies on oil, and only oil that Iran has the ability to create a long-term restriction on.

 The US economy however is quite flexible in regard to independence.  There is no reason to think that the US infrastructure would collapse in upon itself due to a dependency on foreign oil.

 Below is an example of data collected and analyzed by hundreds of economists.  I choose their assessments over the podcast viewpoints of a few people.  

https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/power-and-energy/foreign-oil-dependence

https://profession.americangeosciences.org/society/intersections/faq/how-much...

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

 
 As you can see about 3% of US utilized oil goes through the Straight of Hormuz.  Iranian impact has more to do with trying to leverage Asian/Middle East markets, without including USD as the medium of purchase.  But the US can still get oil to those locations.  

 Also the US economy exports and imports more than oil, which should be the obvious reason why the closing of one waterway could not possibly end the US economy plummeting it into dissolution ready for Iran to invade.  That's nonsense.
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Reply #23 - Today at 01:36:09
 
I note that your links are primarily about American dependence on domestically produced oil and oil from abroad, and indeed a small part comes from the Strait of Hormuz. So the blockade does not have that much effect on America that way.

But.... there is such a thing as the petrol dollar, and that is where the crux lies.

If the petrodollar system were to truly disappear, it would not have an “instant crash” effect, but rather major slow shifts in the world order.
However.... the war in Iran is a catalyst; Iran has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz.And only wants to let ships through if the oil is not paid for in dollars.  SmileyTongue

There is little that America can do to counter that; after all, we are seeing that now, so that is a fact.  Smiley]

America therefore cannot withdraw, because then Iran would hold its neighboring countries hostage. And then all payments in the middel east would no longer be made in dollars. Smiley



If the petrodollar system weakens at an accelerated rate due to developments in the Middle East, this has several disadvantages for the US:

1#First, demand for the dollar decreases because countries need less USD to buy oil. As a result, central banks may reduce their dollar reserves, putting pressure on the value of the dollar.

2#Additionally, it becomes more expensive for the US to finance debt. Foreign parties then buy fewer US government bonds, forcing interest rates to rise to attract investors.

3#A weaker dollar also leads to higher inflation in the US because imports (such as energy and goods) become more expensive. This directly affects consumers.

4#Furthermore, the US loses geopolitical power. Sanctions and financial pressure tactics work less effectively when the world is less dependent on the dollar.

5#The so-called “exorbitant privilege” also partially disappears: the ability of the US to finance large deficits relatively cheaply and easily.

6#At the same time, increased competition from other currencies, such as China's, arises, and regional trade blocs may emerge without the use of the dollar. Finally, it can lead to more instability in financial markets, because there is less constant capital inflow into the US.
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Re: NTK.
Reply #24 - Today at 04:05:29
 
zevenenergie wrote on Today at 01:36:09:
I note that your links are primarily about American dependence on domestically produced oil and oil from abroad, and indeed a small part comes from the Strait of Hormuz. So the blockade does not have that much effect on America that way.

But.... there is such a thing as the petrol dollar, and that is where the crux lies.

If the petrodollar system were to truly disappear, it would not have an “instant crash” effect, but rather major slow shifts in the world order.
However.... the war in Iran is a catalyst; Iran has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz.And only wants to let ships through if the oil is not paid for in dollars.  SmileyTongue

There is little that America can do to counter that; after all, we are seeing that now, so that is a fact.  Smiley]

America therefore cannot withdraw, because then Iran would hold its neighboring countries hostage. And then all payments in the middel east would no longer be made in dollars. Smiley



If the petrodollar system weakens at an accelerated rate due to developments in the Middle East, this has several disadvantages for the US:

1#First, demand for the dollar decreases because countries need less USD to buy oil. As a result, central banks may reduce their dollar reserves, putting pressure on the value of the dollar.

2#Additionally, it becomes more expensive for the US to finance debt. Foreign parties then buy fewer US government bonds, forcing interest rates to rise to attract investors.

3#A weaker dollar also leads to higher inflation in the US because imports (such as energy and goods) become more expensive. This directly affects consumers.

4#Furthermore, the US loses geopolitical power. Sanctions and financial pressure tactics work less effectively when the world is less dependent on the dollar.

5#The so-called “exorbitant privilege” also partially disappears: the ability of the US to finance large deficits relatively cheaply and easily.

6#At the same time, increased competition from other currencies, such as China's, arises, and regional trade blocs may emerge without the use of the dollar. Finally, it can lead to more instability in financial markets, because there is less constant capital inflow into the US.


I don’t understand you zeven. I remember numerous times you’ve highlighted the likelihood of one calamity occurring due to an alignment of events yet so far, none of these doomsday predictions have occurred. And it’s not just that they haven’t occurred, they’ve not even been remotely close.

Yet you’re doing it again. Why? Ask yourself why.  

Assuming all six of those things begin to occur, do you think that US isn’t going to respond in someway? Do you think the citizens of the US (which are the de facto engine behind the economy) aren’t going to adjust in someway to mitigate any consequence? The price of gas has increased recently, but there’s no significant difference in every day life here.

You’re assuming the economy is like a game of chess. You trap someone and it appears they have no space to move to, but this isn’t chess. The economy, the people behind the economy, have an almost unlimited number of moves, but you can’t see the spaces.

In fact, it’s better to think of it as if the spaces have never even been created yet. People think up new spaces as they go along and they move there. Economics are alive, and moving in ways that don’t follow patterns.

Challenge yourself to think broader, you’ve narrowed your vision.
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Reply #25 - Today at 05:42:59
 
I don’t understand you zeven. I remember numerous times you’ve highlighted the likelihood of one calamity occurring due to an alignment of events yet so far, none of these doomsday predictions have occurred. And it’s not just that they haven’t occurred, they’ve not even been remotely close.

Yet you’re doing it again. Why? Ask yourself why.  


 
 It doesn't appear so.  Of course a ton of his information comes, as we can see, from YouTube where there is zero consequence for completely incorrect information.  Whereas the economic information many use is by humans that actually have to be accurate to retain job positions or leadership positions.

 Sort of like the difference between a Preacher for a Church predicting the end of the world versus an economic analyst predicting the sales lineup for a major corporation.

 One can just change their story and the other crippples a business and loses their job.  

 I agree that most of the nonsense about Iran being able to cripple the US economically and invade the mainland is dependent on the US population simply sitting still as we are now and just letting it happen.  
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Reply #26 - Today at 06:02:45
 
To web.

Speaking of narrow, the section where tankers with a large draft can pass through is only 4.4 miles wide.
In normal circumstances, the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was already grim; it is always a bit foggy there, and death threats came in constantly over the ship's radio. Speedboats would sail right up to you; you were not safe as a crew member. Now, with modern warfare, underwater missiles, and drones and sea mines on the water, in the water, and on the seabed, passage is impossible.

I come from a family of sailors, and you have no idea how easy a target you are. That is why Iran can hit the world economy so easily. It doesn't matter how many warships you station there. Trump was completely unaware of this.

I have spoken before about the Great Shaking and the Parivartan, the shift in consciousness. The Great Shaking is not a sudden earthquake or anything like that. It is the escalation of conflicts in the world and the outbreak of wars. We see the unrest in the world growing annually.

It is caused by the fact that we are trapped in our thinking; I have explained this many times. We bring it upon ourselves and cause it ourselves.

It has already happened to many civilizations on Earth; just look at the pyramids, which were not built by the Egyptians.
However, this time in time and space, it is different.

The situation will only worsen. What is needed to make you doubt your thinking? You can say that Muslims are religious fanatics, but we all cling to thinking in an even more fanatical way.

This fanatical belief in thoughts goes so far that people even want genocide and actively preach this as the best method.I have been to Auschwitz and seen what that looked like and where identified thinking can lead. extermination camps larger than you can see with the naked eye.

These are not just your thoughts alone. Many people think this, and this creates an enormously powerful field. What you see happening in Iran now is a direct consequence of it, as you may have noticed. The vast majority of humanity is completely unaware of an alternative. But it definitely exists, and that is why I always talked about it.

I stopped doing that recently, because it was drawn into discussion.
And the "alternative" is not something to debate.
I was trying to inspire. That it does not work and that people misinterpret it as a prophecy of doom is understandable.

On the other hand, you only have to look at the news to see that things don't look good.

Doing business and political intervention are already being enforced militarily.

I was 100% certain that Trump would become president again, and I’ve only known Jiang on YouTube for about half a year or so.
I am also certain that unrest in the world will increase; how far that will go depends on the spiritual evolution of humanity.

How do I know that? I knew an enlightened woman; I spent a lot of time with her. She was American; I once shared a YouTube video of hers here. And I believe it was you who thought it was all incoherent drivel. I can assure you that she was a very wise and profound soul, a yogi who never said anything without purpose, and she always spoke from love.

I am becoming a bit wiser myself, if you understand what I mean. Wink
Maybe it was out of spiritual arrogance that I shared it, who knows?
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Reply #27 - Today at 06:49:38
 
Eegore wrote on Today at 05:42:59:
I don’t understand you zeven. I remember numerous times you’ve highlighted the likelihood of one calamity occurring due to an alignment of events yet so far, none of these doomsday predictions have occurred. And it’s not just that they haven’t occurred, they’ve not even been remotely close.

Yet you’re doing it again. Why? Ask yourself why.  


 
 It doesn't appear so.  Of course a ton of his information comes, as we can see, from YouTube where there is zero consequence for completely incorrect information.  Whereas the economic information many use is by humans that actually have to be accurate to retain job positions or leadership positions.

 Sort of like the difference between a Preacher for a Church predicting the end of the world versus an economic analyst predicting the sales lineup for a major corporation.

 One can just change their story and the other crippples a business and loses their job.  

 I agree that most of the nonsense about Iran being able to cripple the US economically and invade the mainland is dependen on the US population simply sitting still as we are now and just letting it happen.  



I think you’re focusing too much on the platform rather than the content.

Information isn’t automatically unreliable just because it’s on YouTube, it depends on the source, the evidence, and how it’s verified. There are experts who share valuable insights there, just as there are professionals who get things wrong.

The same applies to academia and business: people can be biased, limited by incentives, or simply mistaken. No source is automatically correct.

What matters is critical thinking, comparing sources, checking evidence, and questioning assumptions. That’s what I try to do.

If you think something I said is incorrect, point it out specifically so we can discuss it.
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Reply #28 - Today at 07:10:09
 

I think you’re focusing too much on the platform rather than the content.

Information isn’t automatically unreliable just because it’s on YouTube, it depends on the source, the evidence, and how it’s verified. There are experts who share valuable insights there, just as there are professionals who get things wrong.


 I agree.  which is why I use large data sets as I have shown here for years.

 There is nothing wrong with YouTube in general.  I am specifically saying the information you are providinf, like Jiang, is literally a zero consequence environment.  Which is why Jiang and others can be wrong over and over and nobody cares.



If you think something I said is incorrect, point it out specifically so we can discuss it.

 Jiang is highly accurate.  He isn't.  He provides an ambiguous approach to outcomes.  

 
There is no exit strategy, because there is simply no way back. This is not Iraq, Venezuela, or Libya; this is a full scale war that America must win.

 I disagree.  I think the US can disengage without ending the petrodollar USD resulting in the economic collapse of the US where Iran takes over.

 The US will adjust, just as it did when the apocalyptic predictions of US manufacturing going overseas.  The US dollar was going to disappear then, we were going to be a 3rd world country and Mexico was going to take over.  


   


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Reply #29 - Today at 07:22:41
 
I think this is a more reasonable point, but it cuts both ways.

Jiang doesn’t present himself as a precise forecaster, his approach is structural and scenario based. That will always look “ambiguous” compared to hard data models.

But large data sets aren’t neutral either, they depend on assumptions, inputs, and interpretation. They can miss structural shifts entirely, especially in geopolitics.

So the real question isn’t “who is always right,” but which framework explains reality better over time.

If you think Jiang is wrong, that’s fine, but then the argument should be about where his reasoning fails, not just that he operates in a low consequence space.

Because ultimately, both analysts and commentators can be wrong, the difference is how we evaluate the reasoning behind their conclusions.



The US will adjust, just as it did when the apocalyptic predictions of US manufacturing going overseas came true. The US dollar was going to disappear then, we were going to be a third-world country, and Mexico was going to take over.

Of course, I am not talking about a reunification of America, but about major changes and geopolitical power shifts.
And I follow many YouTube channels about CNC manufacturing, and there are major concerns in the industry about whether we can achieve and maintain high technology in the US, so that we don't see that production disappear abroad as well; that is still an issue. Because China is making great strides.


With AI, it has recently become possible to take over a lot of programming work, and there is a great deal of programming work involved in CNC production. So, at the same time, more knowledge is required and much specialized work becomes simpler.

This transformation ore change is not yet seen in the CNC world in America, and China is taking its lead there, which is worrying. Because the software for that is available. So you can't just sit back as you say, but it is happening.
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