WebsterMark
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And this is why….
A top pollster is breaking from the political industry’s establishment, revealing what he calls a dangerous collapse in American polling — one that has warped election expectations across the Trump era.
“For the third consecutive election cycle, [polling] has reflected not the electorate as it is, but as the political class wishes it to be,” Jason Corley of Quantus Insights wrote. His new report lays out what he calls a “fingerprint of bias,” showing that since 2016, polls have consistently overestimated Democratic performance by an average of 4.2 points in battleground states.
These are not isolated misses. They are consistent, directional, and embedded in the structure of how modern polls are conducted,” he said.
Corley points to the pattern: President Donald Trump’s victories in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016, Joe Biden’s closer-than-expected margins in 2020, and Kamala Harris’s losses in 2024, despite leading in major polls. In Iowa, the gold-standard Des Moines Register had Harris ahead by three points. Trump won the state by thirteen.
“This isn’t random error. It’s a fingerprint of bias,” Corley said.
The issue isn’t last-minute voter swings. According to Quantus Insights, it’s structural. “Response rates have collapsed—from 20% in 2000 to just 5% in 2024. The Americans still answering surveys are more urban, more educated, and more institutionally trusting than the electorate as a whole.”
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