WebsterMark
Serious Thumper
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Posted the below as a response to a quote but thought it was worthy of its own discussion.
Just finished the interesting article in The New Yorker from a guy named Stephen Kotkin. He’s written several books on Russia and understanding them is his career focus. Don’t have a link but you should be able to find it and it’s worth the time. Much of what he says seems more right than wrong.
One point he made I thought was very relevant which is it’s hard for normal people to get into the mind of someone like Putin. We can’t understand this quest for Ukraine and what seems to be the inevitable isolation of Russia once this is over.
I was talking to my brothers yesterday and told him this reminds me of the Iranian revolution and 79 in the embassy hostage situation. Iran has more or less been isolated since then. Face it, if they didn’t have oil nobody would care. But there’s far more to the Russian economy and the Russian people. For example, my St. Louis Blues NHL hockey team has three or four Russians on it. Do you think they wanna go back to Russia now? The talented businessman, athletes, artist etc. in Russia, how are they gonna get out into the world now? That’s going to leave a mark on the Russian people and I think eventually Putin will face the consequence. At least that’s one possibility.
The other key point this person may which I thought was good was that the future is just awfully hard to predict because it only takes a few small changes to shift the direction 180°. The president of Ukraine is now an international television star and he made an excellent point that in today’s world, being a star on Twitter, Facebook and the darling of NBC Nightly News could be the equivalent of 1000 tanks and a few more jets. And that’s true. His appeals have gotten other countries involved to help fight the war or at least supply them weapons.
This morning I read about missiles being fired into the Middle East and China coming out with a statement saying basically don’t fuxk with us if we decide to fuxk with Taiwan or you’ll be sorry.
The future is impossible to predict right now and I think there’s a distinct possibility that the way the world looks and works today won’t be the same a year from now. And we in the US could suffer far more than we have in a very long time. Regardless who the US President is or who controls the Congress. Obviously getting a mean, degrading, pathetic old man who laundered his families cash in Ukraine out of the decision-making is probably a good idea but there’s no guarantee whoever steps in is going to be more competent. Harris? Please.
There’s always been a debate about who’s actually making the decisions n the Biden administration and we don’t know who that is but with Harris it could be anybody. Personally I think Biden is making all the decisions because they’re mostly ridiculous. With Harris, I have to believe the other people would stand up and say wait a minute, you’re an idiot, say what we tell you to, but who would those people be?
And remember this very important point, even if they are the most competent person in the world, think about all the other variables and surprises that can pop up suddenly. And remember war is a competition and you’re going up against an opponent who seeks victory just as badly as you are and you can only guess how competent, and lucky) the people on his side are.
On the other hand, surprises happen. The wars the US have been involved in that we’ve won have turned on just a few simple episodes. Or even people. I guess the moral of the story is to buy is peanut butter, extended-shelf life foods and keep your powder dry. Maybe one or two 5 gallon jugs of gasoline hidden in your garage wouldn’t be a bad idea either.
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