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AMD & others --- Intel dominance in 2022 (Read 9739 times)
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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #210 - 07/17/21 at 20:42:16
 

My Goodness, Intel has really messed this little ranking up by renaming all their processes and their part families without actually improving anything.   This whole chart has just now (a week after it was written) become completely trashed by a billowing cloud of brown Intel BS vapor blowing over it .........

https://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/cpu-hierarchy,4312.html

And Tom's Hardware had just retested everything using Intel and MS's latest released software tweeks (tweeks that make the hidden Intel AI work a little better, in essence).

Rankings didn't change anything position wise, but the stair steps went up a little bit.   There is a presumption here that Intel doesn't have another AI trick up its sleeve, or yet another "missile lake" of some sort to spring on us.

This is the final ranking before AMD releases their next lithography shift and announces all their new products.

Intel has to wait for new TSMC produced (internally cooled processor) 3nm products to have any chance of a top rated product.
1-2 years from now, huh?    It is sad that Intel depends on a breakthrough in processor cooling to try to become competitive again ........

It is also noted that most of the software tweeks mentioned up post actually were apparently SPECIFICALLY DONE TO CHEAT ON A SPECIFIC BENCHMARK TEST with the goal being to show at least one Intel chipset product up in the top two or three in every test that is commonly used.

None of which changes a GEOMEAN ranking much at all ....... Tom's did a good job making a cheat proof set of benchmarks to stop Intel's little mickey mouse games.

However, Intel is still hooting & hollering and claiming this and claiming that, all of which would be a lot more real if their stuff didn't throttle itself to death inside the first 2 minutes of real use.

If Intel had a better cooling system then their results would be a lot more real than they are right now .......

The crushing pace of AMD real advancements continues, wave after wave of improvements are already contracted at TSMC and will be be produced late this year and early next year.    Intel can bump up AMD's release schedule by putting out something compelling, but the odds of this happening go down month by month.

AMD is putting out 5nm sample products to their OEM partners so everybody can get ready for the next waves of AMD stuff ......

Reminder, because of AMD prodding Intel with AMD progress, computers in general are 3 times faster than they used to be ........

Both vendors are still needed to supply the Very Large consumer demand for new PCs.  

AMD and Intel can both sell all that they can make right now.
, but demand is going to drop off soon due to Covid ending (but back to school is picking up to counteract this relief).



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« Last Edit: 08/05/21 at 20:16:48 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #211 - 07/26/21 at 14:59:59
 

Today, Intel tosses it all up in the air, calling their old stuff 10nm & 7nm & 4nm & 3nm and saying they are as accurate in doing this as Samsung is with their current chip lithography destinations.   This is blatantly false, and when the Intel news embargo ends the counter blasts from the computer press will begin.

Roll Eyes

Some of the positive outcomes of this blasting controversy may be the forced development of an impartial universal nomenclature that is based on current draw per CPU thread.  

The hard fact is that Intel is losing currently on all fronts and desperately needs to reset the discussion into new terms they can lie better at.    I have said previously that Intel is simply driving very hard to become "unknowable" so as to appear to be competitive when they certainly are NOT COMPETITIVE AT ALL.
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« Last Edit: 07/31/21 at 02:51:19 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #212 - 07/26/21 at 15:09:54
 


Intel tosses it all up in the air, saying their old 14nm stuff is now 10nm Superfin (of two different varieties no less with some being called 7nm now) and renaming their failed 7nm stuff as 4nm & 3nm and 2nm and less.  Intel is saying they are being as accurate in doing that as Samsung is with their current chip lithography destinations.    BULLSHITE    ALSO NOTE:   Intel is using "embargoed information" discussion shut downs to stop people from calling Intel out for their rank utter BS nonsense.

Roll Eyes

Some of the positive outcomes of this blasting current controversy may actually be development of an impartial industry wide universal nomenclature that is based on current draw per data unit measured at post throttle levels, a metric that has some real meaning and is easily measured and reported.   Intel will fight this change hard as they really suck at it, greatly.

Until then, expect Intel to lie a whole lot and shoot out massive clouds of brown BS vapor to try to confuse all issues on all fronts while still claiming to be better than everybody else.

The hard fact is that Intel is losing BADLY currently on all fronts and Intel desperately needs to reset the discussion into some sort of new terms they can lie more convincingly about.

I have said last week that Intel is simply driving very hard to become "unknowable" so as to better appear to be competitive when they certainly are NOT COMPETITIVE AT ALL.

RECOMMENDATION:    BUY AMD AS YOU CAN STILL GET REPORTED MEASUREMENTS FROM AMD THAT STILL HAVE REAL MEANING, produced using the stock AMD heat sinks that AMD puts right in the retail box with the processor.

Some specious Intel 10nm new stuff requires some form of super liquid cooler to get their Intel advertised results, a cooler that simply does not exist right now in reality.




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« Last Edit: 08/10/21 at 17:22:31 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #213 - 07/27/21 at 01:00:48
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PD7IJgbuWs

This is a calm relatively factual relatively unbiased YouTube video attempt to analyze what Intel is doing, with this analysis being done by a lesser level tech reporter.   Pay close attention to the fact that all Intel 14nm and 10nm changes are immediately tossed under the bus according to this reviewer with the simple notation that Intel must actually execute this plan before he (the reviewer) will try to talk about it any further.   Nobody wants to play "what if games" with a company like Intel that never brings what it promises to market at the same very broken level as Intel has done lately.

Simply put, it is all BS until Intel actually manages to DO something to change something.   Until then, it is rated as yet more Intel brown vapor BS and intentional confusion.

Intel has supposedly hinted that it intends to buy a whole lot of brand new ASML machines at the real 3-2 nm range, but Intel simply hasn't ordered nor paid for any of these new scanners yet.   The time to place these orders has come and gone just recently .......  

There is a two year long waiting line to buy these things and Intel isn't in that line yet.

Intel has no large state of the art "build it for me" orders lined up at TSMC at this time at any existing TSMC fab either.  However, after embargo ends tomorrow Intel will begin magically naming their old stuff down at these reduced numerical levels according to the "numbers that have no meaning" approach that Intel is currently taking.

Needless to say, for PC processors BUY AMD instead of Intel ........  buy the current modern state of the art and know what you are buying, for Heaven's sake.

Also, if Chromebooking, buy a Mediatek Dimensity 1300 instead of Intel for a lower cost better performing chipset that has known operating characteristics.......

I CANNOT RECOMMEND BUYING ANYTHING FROM INTEL SIMPLY BECAUSE THE NAMING OF THE PROCESSORS HAS NO MEANING ANY MORE AND CAN BE FLIPPED AROUND FAST LIKE A FAST WAGGING PUPPY TAIL.  

Intel is no longer a trustworthy source for your electronics since LYING TO EVERYBODY is apparently their NEW secret superpower.

Next, Intel has now ruptured the deal they had going with Samsung, split it WIDE open at the waistline so to speak.   Busted a trust gut wide open Intel did  .......     So now Intel is claiming to be close to QUALCOMM now and will be supposedly building Qualcomm's PC lite processors instead of Samsung or TSMC building them as has been in years past.

For Qualcomm's sake, I hope this is not true.   Don't believe Intel when they say they can build an ARM like SOC at low lithography levels, Intel never has been able to do this before now, ever, now have they?

I think Qualcomm is simply due a hard sharp lesson on why nobody deals with Intel in any kind of close, reciprocal relationship ---- not for long, anyway.   Intel screws their business partners over regularly, leaving them holding the bills for the high Intel scrap rates and other inherently high Intel project monetary costs.

Here is another tough one,  Apple has recently doubled down on their 5nm and 3nm orders at TSMC with Apple intending to take more x86 market share using this mass of processors.   Yeah, Apple, the ones that paid TSMC to develop the new equipment to build this new stuff way way back then --- this development leaves very little state of the art processing space currently available for Intel as AMD was second in line to Apple at TSMC and TSMC does not willingly default on existing published agreements.   AMD will get some super modern chipsets as per that agreement.   Apple and AMD may get very tight on these TSMC new chip supplies, but TSMC will take care of these long term TSMC partners.

Why?   Both major players also list Samsung as alternate suppliers and if the two major players both have to pick up on these alternate options at Samsung that leaves NOTHING for Qualcomm and Intel except "So Solly, Charlie".


The general effects of the worldwide chip shortage just grind on and on and on finer and finer, don't they?
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« Last Edit: 07/31/21 at 18:52:36 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #214 - 07/28/21 at 07:34:04
 

The computer industry roils some more due to TSMC's limited state of the art capacity being simply unable to permit all of their old customers to all grow at the same time.   Some customers will have to wait a bit as other customers are going first.

These guys will lose market share to the customers who can get some TSMC chipsets.

EXAMPLE:   Apple still has most of TSMC 5nm and 3nm locked up with massive massive orders.   Apple states they intend to use these orders to take market share away from other players.

Intel and Samsung seem to be separating again on their on again off again relationship.

Qualcomm and TSMC and Samsung seem to be sorting each other out in light of Intel's announcement that Intel will be building Qualcomm's PC chipsets going forward.   NOTE:   This Intel announcement is not verified by Qualcomm at this time .......

Mediatek has announced two new serious Dimensity 1300 heavy duty chipsets that can do a light PC duty very well, and would be simply kickass as Chromebook chipsets.   These will be built at the TSMC 4nm level.   First lots are now built and shipped to machine builders, so this is not just a rumor.

Qualcomm is simply not competitive to Taiwan based Mediatek when taking the long view any longer.   This takes down Microsoft's PC lite efforts and may well be what is firing off the shift to Intel by Qualcomm, IF this indeed happening.

Qualcomm and Microsoft are primarily aimed at the American market, which is no longer the big growth leader for buying lots of tech stuff any longer.    

The really large phone based growth markets are now covered by Mediatek and Xiaomi as Huawei has been cut off from use by all American technologies by the Trump and Biden administrations.
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« Last Edit: 07/31/21 at 18:51:00 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #215 - 07/28/21 at 18:48:15
 

https://9to5mac.com/2021/07/28/tsmc-2nm-production-set-for-2023/

https://gizmodo.com/tsmc-will-start-making-2nm-chips-as-intel-tries-to-catc-1...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Intel-sets-2025-goal-to-...

More announcements from Intel, with Intel speaking out of their arse "for TSMC" about Intel's plans to do this and that "to beat TSMC" using chipsets built at TSMC until Intel can build their own new process lines in America proper using Biden's money.

Big Issue is that Intel's plans take an additional two years just to get into 2nm production compared to TSMC's plans that were announced SEPARATELY today.    TSMC has plenty of time to over-run Intel's plans using not yet invented progress in chip building technology.

Apple will insist on using this new tech starting next year ........

Furthermore, the Taiwanese government itself today gave gov. approval to TSMC to expedite both their 3nm and their 2nm facilities, actually moving them forward by one full year.   Land is there, facilities hookup is there, slab is poured already.   Walls going up soon.

Intel has just likely ended their chance to get their Intel products run at TSMC's new facilities by acting such a fool about the whole thing.    Or worse yet, TSMC may hold Intel to their illicit, unauthorized "for TSMC" announcement and just delay giving Intel any 3nm or 2nm production allocations for one additional full year's worth of delay as per Intel's illicit announcement dated today.      Cheesy       Yeah baby, teach them stupid suckers to talk your confidential top secret stuff out of school ......

Intel, you are either a trustworthy customer or a blabbermouth competitor Fab, so pick one ----- soon TSMC will stop telling you things and letting you play the fool and embarrassing them by you announcing TSMC's secrets that do not belong to you as you have just done.
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« Last Edit: 08/04/21 at 13:49:16 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #216 - 07/30/21 at 17:48:12
 

https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/everything-amd-new-am5-socket-reveals...

     Which would you rather have?


Early mock ups of the next gen AMD and Intel chipset match up.   And yes, because of AMD's tighter lithography and AMD's use of chiplets and "complete inside the chipset communications wiring" the AM5 socketed AMD unit is indeed smaller and simpler to connect up to a motherboard.

Intel requires many additional components on the back of their chipset and has to have nearly twice as many CPU connections and twice as many traces to their motherboard (leading to still more sub-component set ups and required support items).   Intel simply costs a whole lot more to implement and their motherboard costs reflect this much higher cost posture.



 

===================================================


Market Segregation by price

Premium end buyers don't want Intel right now.   AMD is supplying that entire upper end market at some serious premium+ price points.   AMD is getting the very best bang for their TSMC chiplet allocations by supplying mainframe and high end & workstations first, then letting Intel supply all the bottom end chipsets using their lies and older lithography when the monthly AMD TSMC chiplet allocations run dry.

Sad thing is Intel wants to lie about just about everything now, about what they are supplying and the lithography that is used inside it......  and Intel is charging a lot of ++ money ++ for a lot of relabeled older processors right now ........

Buy Intel and YOU ABSOLUTELY DON'T KNOW ABSOLUTELY WHAT THE HECK YOU ARE ACTUALLY GETTING FOR YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY RIGHT NOW.
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« Last Edit: 08/17/21 at 19:23:24 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #217 - 08/01/21 at 16:02:06
 

We got us a new inflection point, courtesy of Mediatek.   The AMD Ryzen 3 chipset's throughput specs has been overcome by the 4nm 8 core Mediatek Dimensiity 1200 and 1300T chipsets.

Yes, upper end cheap ARM based Mediatek tablet and Chromebook chipsets have exceeded the existing lower end Ryzen 3 performance.

We will see more of this sort of low end overlap action in the next several years as the Mediatek ARM based chipsets get better but still sell for far far less than the existing Ryzen 3 chipsets.    AMD has paid zero attention to this low end area as they do not have chiplet wafer allocations right now to use their chiplets to support Ryzen 3 properly right now.

BTW, Chromebooks are going to continue to get cheaper and better, too ----- the low end Intel Chromebook chipsets are many, but are quite weak comparatively.


=================================================


Looks like the Chinese regulators are simply never going to act on the NVIDIA attempt to buy ARM, and by doing so will quietly exercise their veto power.   This leaves ARM open to doing an IPO to raise some buy out capital, or by agreeing to a joint customer buy out from their many many customers.

This sounds familiar to us all, because ARM Holdings was nothing but an earlier customer consortium buy out of ACORN, the original ARM chipset organization.

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« Last Edit: 08/18/21 at 22:04:24 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #218 - 08/02/21 at 10:23:36
 

https://www.wired.com/story/google-tensor-pixel-6-pro/

https://liliputing.com/2021/08/lilbits-google-pixel-6-with-tensor-processor-s...

https://media.wired.com/clips/61044e27f5d5b47a960fd94b/360p/pass/Google%2520T...   it is a video, click on it

Google built a tech called Tensor Flo to do their heavy duty learned AI processing, which they called Tensor Processing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor_Processing_Unit#Fourth_generation_TPU

Google used these processors in Google rack farms to do all their expansion over the last 4 years.    Once allowed to learn a task, each tensor processor was good for 20-90+ terra ops per second.      (not mega, not giga,  terra ops per second)    A very very fast, very very LOTS & LOTS of processing power.

                                    TPUv1      TPUv2      TPUv3      TPUv4      
Date Introduced              2016        2017       2018        2021      
Process Node                     28 nm      16 nm      16 nm      7 nm      
Die Size (mm2)                331      < 625      < 700      < 400      
On chip memory (MiB)      28      32      32      144      
Clock Speed (MHz)        700      700      940      1050      
Memory (GB)           8GB DDR3      16GB HBM      32GB HBM      +0      98
TDP(W)                                  75      280             450             175
TOPS                                   23           45           90        ?


Then Google learned how to plug this into the net to access this sort of terra level rack farm processing power per second in real time using a cell phone.    Suddenly foreign languages instantly self-translated to English, and other amazing sorts of things started to happen on Pixel phones.

Google has begun just now making and shipping early samples of their own "in the phone" Tensor processing chipsets for Pixel cell phones and tablets, and it is called Tensor silicon.

It isn't plane Jane ARM, it isn't x86, it isn't Apple, it isn't RISC-V.    

It is Tensor   (something new)

Gen 1 Tensor will be being analyzed by the computer press very shortly.

Google is not pumping this Tensor stuff up wildly like Intel does their latest and greatest, they simply say it is a different way of designing a processor, it WORKS differently and it can be revolutionary in both speed and in greater graphic accuracy and greater data crunching usefulness.

We will learn a lot more about Tensor this fall when it ships in the new Google Pixel phones .......

The Google Pixel 6 and Pixel 6 Pro are coming this fall and they’ll feature a brand new design with a large camera bar across the back of the phones and upgraded camera hardware including new sensors and lenses. But the biggest chance, Google says, is under the hood.

Google’s Pixel 6 series phones will be the first to ship with a new system-on-a-chip called “Tensor.” It’s a Google-designed system-on-a-chip with enhanced AI capabilities that will enable better photography, improved video (with HDR applied to every single frame), and other features for advanced voice processing for dictation, translation, and captions. Google hasn’t announced pricing yet, but the company other details on social media, through its website, and with journalists.



While Google has a track record with making its phones stand out through AI-assisted software (Pixel phones have long had a reputation for taking stellar photos, largely due to Google’s software-based camera features), I’ll be curious to see how much of a difference Tensor really makes in real-world performance… and whether any apps that aren’t made by Google will tap into its features.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hEPj13PUGc     This dude went to Google's release presentation and he went to the workshops that followed.
Tensor is a 4nm Samsung produced piece of custom Google silicon that has some Samsung  Exynos ARM tech inside it.

He makes some good points and tells us what to watch for as far as new Tensor functions.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9SHUSP_LJ8&list=RDCMUCRjSO-juFtngAeJGJRMdIZw...

Gary from Gary Explains really isn't impressed with Tensor as we currently understand it, mainly because Google Tensor isn't being transparent for much at all at this point in time.    

In short, Gary Can't Explain Tensor and he doesn't care for that particular fact for very much .......
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« Last Edit: 08/06/21 at 22:29:29 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #219 - 08/03/21 at 08:39:12
 

More Minor news also happening today .........

Intel has just lost their "largest chipmaker in the world" crown to Samsung.   This was predicted to take place next year, but it came early as more customers have actively dumped off Intel lately than were anticipated.

Samsung in turn has lost its world's biggest cell phone supplier crown, this crown goes to Xiaomi as they roll into Huawei's old markets.

I have covered the "why" ongoing over the last year, but Apple, Google, and lots of oriental companies (like Mediatek who is starting to take over Chromebook space) have all added up to some quite large market share losses for Intel.

Or, let me state it this way.   The compute world has grown 14% just this past quarter and Intel hasn't moved upwards for years now --- Intel actually shrank 4% last month in real terms (-14% in relative terms to all of Intel's competitors).  

All of this caught up with Intel's industry ranking this month.

Going forward, Intel ships "mostly" old 14nm tech Core i3 and i5 now days.    Mediatek has started taking over the Core i3 from the bottom up, killing the various Atoms, and the other lower market segments (Chromebooks and below).  

So Intel is simply in a world of low end hurt right now.     Intel will make a lot of noise about shipping "more product than ever before" and they really are numerically doing that, but this is mostly due to AMD basically abandoning the bottom of the i3 range while Intel is still busy shipping out large numbers of technically moldy low end chipsets from their warehouse stocks.

But with Mediatek coming on strong in these same ranges this situation will not last.    Intel will have to put out better low end stuff or Mediatek will take that business.

Intel losing out to Mediatek is completely absurd --- Intel has products above this range to move down into a "compete and win" range with Mediatek.   Issue is the selling price to compete with Mediatek is too low for a competitive Intel upper something to make any real money competing against Mediatek.   Intel will have to sell at a loss to keep a market segment that they really do not want and that they cannot possibly keep.

Next gen AMD  Ryzen 3 (AMD 5000 6000) is apparently going to overlap up into Intel Core i5  range by the end of these next AMD product generations and AMD 5000-6000 could wind up being a good bit cheaper too (this being mostly dependent on the TSMC wafer supply's abundance, actually.)

AMD can take whatever market share that they have the wafer supply to handle.   Apple currently has the TSMC major wafer supply flowing to them, so Apple will take the most short term market share away from Intel instead of AMD.

Now do you begin to understand WHY Intel is driving so hard to increase all levels of confusion about exactly what the heck they are actually selling and how good it actually is ?????   Intel is fighting 3 battles at once right now using obsolete lithography and a high cost position.   If they focus on one competitor the other two rip out a mouthful and swallow it while Intel contests with the third .......

........ blood and squid ink in the water, boys and girls, lots & lots of murky Intel squid ink and more and more blood ........




You do realize this will signal Intel's Board of Directors to take out their little small caliber pistols and inject 90 grains of hot lead into another minor Intel manager's cranium, right?

Somebody has got to pay for this huge huge loss of Intel face after all .........

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« Last Edit: 08/17/21 at 19:26:24 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #220 - 08/06/21 at 23:00:35
 

Big picture time .......

TSMC has already started enough new production facilities to get the world back into the technically current chipsets supply levels that it needs.   Much of the shortage seen was people cancelling orders with TSMC due to Covid and finding out the hard way that TSMC had lots of other customers in line waiting to take that allocation space.

Companies had forfeited their place in a multi-year long line, in other words.

Right now TSMC is making up a huge glut of chipsets up for the entire world, chips that will be paid for up front then shipped when ready .........    and the various companies involved will still have to learn how to schedule their chipset production lots in a constant and timely flow fashion and how not to panic all the time.

TSMC and Samsung will completely FINISH their USA plants and run them at rate for a year before Intel finishes the first of their two new plants.    If Intel does like Intel generally does, they will dump off on their too late construction efforts and leave someone else (Biden Administration) holding the construction bag.

Intel should not be allowed to buy Global Foundry with Biden's bail out money, Global Foundry was an obsolete run down turd last year and it smells even worse today.


===================================================


OK, so Intel picked up a moderate  bump in sales in the i3 segment, but lost share big-time everywhere else.

Then Mediatek moved in on that low end i3 segment that Intel was doing well at and is killing it completely.

AMD is picking up some additional wafer supply from TSMC and is using that wafer supply to take more market share away from Intel.

Apple is getting TONS of wafers of M1 and M2 out of TSMC and Apple is taking a whole market direction shift out of Intel's arse at this point in time.

Several different players are sifting through Intel's remaining market share, looking for any good bits.

Apple, AMD, Mediatek, Amazon (AWS ARM Graviton Servers)   ........ not much is going good for Intel at the moment.

INTEL IS STILL MAKING MONEY, but the market share loss will hurt again this fall and again next year during Intel fiscal reporting.

Can Intel sell everything they make still?    Yes, but at a reduced price and reduced gross profit margin.
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« Last Edit: 08/17/21 at 13:13:16 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #221 - 08/12/21 at 20:57:20
 

https://www.techradar.com/news/intel-locks-down-all-remaining-tsmc-3nm-produc...



Intel locks down all remaining TSMC 3nm production capacity, boxing out AMD and Apple

By John Loeffler - Computing Staff Writer about 9 hours ago

Intel's 3nm orders include a new GPU and three server chips    NOTE: THIS WAS A HOAX


Intel may have pulled a fast one on its industry rivals by buying up a majority of the 3nm node capacity at TSMC in order to fabricate its new GPU and a number of server chips, something that could inhibit AMD and Apple from ramping up production of their own next-gen chips in 2022.

Production with the 3nm node is expected to start in Q2 2022, with mass production expected to start in mid 2022, according to Wccftech. Production capacity would reach about 4,000 in May of next year, with mass production capacity ramping up to 10,000 wafers a month.

Intel, unlike AMD or Apple, has its own fabrication plants that it uses for most of its chip production, though it has struggled in recent years to hit its own development roadmap targets. None of the 3nm node process orders will be for its consumer market processors, namely Raptor Lake, which is expected to launch in mid-to-late 2022.

Instead, reports indicate that the product lines in the order will coming out of its graphics and server units, specifically a new GPU and three new server processors, most likely next-gen Xeon processors meant for data centers.

Analysis: Is the Intel Iris Xe graphics card finally making it to production?
We don't know much about any of these chips yet, though the GPU could be the long-awaited Intel discrete graphics card based on the company's Iris graphics processor.

The Intel Iris Xe graphics card has been in the works for a long time now, but we've yet to ever really see it beyond some prototypes and presentation material. If Intel is making a substantial investment in its graphics unit however – and eating up a substantial chunk of TSMC's 3nm node capacity in the process – then we certainly hope this is an indication that Intel's discrete graphics card is on its way to customers.

While we're not expecting it to immediately dethrone AMD and Nvidia in the graphics card space, turning things into a three-way fight rather than a head-to-head matchup will push the three companies to innovate even more. This can only be good for gamers and other PC enthusiasts in the end, assuming we're ever able to get our hands on any of these graphics cards in the first place.


Note the words "locked down the remaining 3nm capacity" applies to only one TSMC facility.   TSMC has multiple 3nm facilities being built at this time.

This implies Apple and AMD got their first pick of production allocations and had left some on the table for Intel to scoop up and Intel took all of what remained.

Intel is doing some graphics cards and three workstation chipsets with this allocation ---- this is not a broad across the board Intel wide implementation.    

Intel will do those on their own home made lithographic equipment when they finally get that upgraded equipment ready.

Intel is also known for dropping out on their long term commitments on far off TSMC production lots when these far off TSMC production lots get overcome by events.

There are also some known nagging issues with TSMC 3nm long fin finFET ---  it is suspected to be the very last of the finFET levels before ribbon based gate all around takes over completely industry wide at 2nm.  

Samsung (supported by IBM) is the best at gate all around that exists right now, having a working 2nm gate all around production equipment and a good product design system all at the same time.

AMD and Samsung are tight at the moment, sharing graphics tech and production space with each other.


It will be good to see some REALLY NEW tech coming out of Intel that is actually up at the forefront of things again.   It will spur everyone else to do better and to do it faster.


===================================================


A counter rumor has surfaced saying that Intel did NOT lock down any 3nm capacity at any single TSMC plant, but only placed some TSMC 3nm orders with a selective start and stop range.


This counter rumor has been verified twice now, so the original Intel sourced rumor about Intel getting any form of lock on TSMC production is now considered a pure Intel brown vapor intentional hoax.   This sort of shite coming from a competing Fab (Intel) this should be actionable by EU regulatory bodies that are aware and actually doing their jobs ......

https://www.hardwaretimes.com/amd-reportedly-books-5nm-and-3nm-capacity-with-...



https://www.hardwaretimes.com/apple-to-be-tmscs-only-3nm-client-in-2022-follo...


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« Last Edit: 08/27/21 at 21:31:35 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #222 - 08/16/21 at 21:28:26
 


Dis-associative reality and "wishful thinking"  is a danger in the computer press right now.   Intel is seen by this wishful thinking Intel booster crew as still being in spitting range of the very best AMD has put together to date.   Intel is behind, but fairly close on everything except temperature and current draw (which Intel sucks at, BTW).   But Intel is seen as "fairly close" and almost competitive by the friendly computer press who blindly believes whatever lies Intel tells them in their press kits.

This will change when Ryzen 6000 comes out next year.   Between now and then there will be 2 large advancements made by AMD.

The first advancement will be structural, plugging in a large layer of memory tied direct to the chiplets through brass VIA tech as patented by TSMC.   This will be a ~20%~ advancement by itself.

The next will be a lithography shrink to 5nm or 6nm, both sizes will be used ongoing until 3nm rolls out in Q3 2022.   This will be good for another up to 30% improvement.

The last item is a new TSMC "inside the chipset high performance liquid cooling system" which is under development that will make both Intel and AMD processors work better by removing much of the current overheating problems at the source.   Intel will attempt to keep this trick "Intel specific" in popular reporting, but it will be a generic TSMC technology which will wind up being offered to everybody and it will be widely used as it has become needed by everybody.

AMD will need the "inside the chipset high performance liquid cooling system" too when they start putting graphics cores and AI cores distributed inside every chiplet they make.

AMD will rack up layer after layer of real progress and AMD will make real processing improvements while moving to 3nm by stages.   Ditto for Apple and Huawei who will move down the TSMC pathway one step at a time.

Intel will attempt to counter with still higher watts of current draw and some improved cooling and a few new AI tricks.   And lots and lots of Intel lies and brown vaporous marketing BS ........

Intel says it is going to go to use 3nm TSMC on a limited number of specific processors, which will be designed and built using TSMC supplied processor design tools and technology.  

HOWEVER, Intel will stay stuck overall at native Intel 14nm and at 10nm until this actually happens.   Intel has indeed already renamed their lithography levels on everything starting right now, but this basic "no real progress" truth still remains no matter what Intel calls their stuff this week.

Intel will continue to lose real market share to both Apple and to AMD and to Huawei in the mean time ........



Can Intel make a come back?    Heck yes, if they have the money and the time to do so.   And I think Pat Gelsinger has the motivation and the management skills to run Intel going out into the future.  

The biggest issue Intel has right now is that they have so many new direct competitors that are doing things so very well at the moment.   While Intel focuses on the current main competitor, two more smaller competitors take out a bite of hamburger and swallow it.

Next biggest risk for Intel is Joe Biden --- Dopey Joe hasn't got the breadth of mind to even understand what he is doing much less what he asks folks like Gelsinger to run out and go do for him with our technical base.

Next, Joe Biden has just in essence told the Chinese they can come in and invade Taiwan whenever they want to, the recent Afghanistan complete bungling has sent this message out to the entire world --- American Military isn't able to keep up with Dopey Joe as he fumbles around so ineptly.

Lastly, Intel has gone off into their own brown marketing BS cloud breathing so deeply now they don't seem to understand the difference between everyday reality and Intel's own wishful thinking propaganda any further.   Suddenly having all their old stuff be instantly "7nm and below" is a leap too far, and Intel's tweeking of their internal financial metrics to be in alignment with their new tweeked marketing reality will shortly run afoul of Wall Street in a very big way.

Lying about money does not fly on Wall Street, the Street has no sense of humor at all.

Joe Biden is self-delusional, if he exports this mental illness into Gelsinger's already loosely reality based Intel management group or gets them involved in some sort of marketing fur ball in Europe, well, then both Joe Biden and Intel could fly their planes into the ground still wing to wing with Intel still following Joe Biden's shaky lead.

Dis-associative reality is a real danger for Joe Biden's close friends right now.


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« Last Edit: 08/22/21 at 18:23:03 by Oldfeller--FSO »  

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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #223 - 08/19/21 at 19:41:29
 

Intel has a pattern that they follow when AMD announces and then ships something good.

Go out really really far in the future and announce something to be equally good or better.   Go out so far in the future that folks will have forgotten the announced details way before you fail to do them.

Announce a bogus new standard of some sort to make AMD's version of something good "not fit the new standard".

Publish bogus test results from a little custom test house claiming Intel does better, but do it on a thing you have no plans of ever releasing so you can't get quickly caught out in your lies.

Feed false information to some tame reviewers, but only the ones that slavishly trust your press packets and will just reflexively report it as fact.   Let them destroy their own credibility and then deny whatever you told them in private "confidential" meetings ever took place.

But do still remember to print their bogus information on all your boxes and cartons ........




I am not alone in seeing a pattern of BS from Intel marketing.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/302408-tsmc-wafer-wars-intel...

The big fake news last week came from a report out of China stating that TSMC won a big Intel order for 3nm wafers. We have been talking about this for some time on SemiWiki so this is nothing new. Unfortunately, the article mentioned wafer and delivery date estimates that are unconfirmed and from what I know, completely out of line. From there the media created a frenzy pitting Intel against Apple and AMD in a war of wafers as a desperate attempt to get cheap clicks:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/intel-locks-down-all-remaining-tsmc...

https://wccftech.com/intel-grabs-majority-tsmc-3nm-capacity-4-server-graphics...

https://hothardware.com/news/intel-tsmc-3nm-chip-capacity-next-gen-xeon-gpu-d...

https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/08/16/apple-secure-majority-tsmc-3nm-over-intel/



And now we have the wanna be influencers on Seeking Alpha and LinkedIn repeating this false narrative ad nauseum on purpose just to generate some clicks.



HERE ARE THE FACTS:

I first heard word of Intel having the TSMC N3 PDK in the first part of 2020 which was a bit of a surprise. Intel is a long time TSMC customer due to acquisitions but not for native Intel products. I confirmed it with multiple sources inside the ecosystem and started writing about it shortly thereafter.

What I was told later is that Bob Swan signed the N3 deal with TSMC due to the delays in Intel 10nm and 7nm to motivate Intel manufacturing to get those processes out as planned due to Intel's various internal problems. TSMC then increased their own CAPEX to build the additional N3 capacity required to satisfy the signed Intel wafer agreement.

To be clear, wafer agreements are signed 2-3 years before the chip makes it into HVM and TSMC can build fabs faster than that so there will be no N3 shortages for anyone who signed a wafer agreement (apple, AMD, NVIDIA, QCOM, etc…) and actually paid the agreement costs. If they need more chips than what they signed up for, which happens, there may be shortages.  If you need more, you sign a new agreement for the extra wafers.   This is how TSMC and the foundry business works. It’s all about the wafer agreements.
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Re: AMD & others --- post AMD dominance in 202
Reply #224 - 08/21/21 at 14:14:24
 
 
Why is AMD still on Pcie4 instead of Pcie5 like Intel claims to be?    

No Pcie5 drives and stuff are out there yet, there are no shipped "fully enabled" Pcie5 Intel motherboards from Intel yet to our knowledge either.   Intel claims it is all eminent, but not quite here yet.  

Why should AMD rush into blowing bunches of money at this gnarled up Pcie5 situation until Pcie5 works itself out into a "simple reality", something that generally happens when Pcie6 gets announced sometimes next year.    The gnarly parts of Pcie5 will get overtaken by Pcie6 and get a new chance to actually make it into reality.

AMD for one likes to be able to re-use their old motherboards for as long as possible.    Intel will have required 2-3 new motherboards be purchased during this same time span before AMD goes over to Pcie5 when it finally becomes a firm real working standard.

Intel prefers for their Intel fanboys to have to buy lots & lots of new stuff with every new Intel generation whether it works well or not.   "Forced motherboard churn" is an Intel thing after all.   AMD prefers to let you drop in your new processor in your old socket and reuse all your old stuff for as long as possible ......

So AMD will stay at Pcie4 until a motherboard shift to Pcie5 is REQUIRED by something real, then they will announce the organized Pcie5 changeover complete with all the bits and pieces it requires at some logical point.  

One would think the AM5 socket processor introduction could be such a point, but we are not the ones in charge of AMD's buying of all these bits and pieces.    AMD will hold off on Pcie5 a bit longer until the shortage situation gets better on Pcie5 parts and all the bits and pieces are freely available at a reasonable cost.  

These pieces may actually wind up being Pcie6 pieces if this gnarled up mess holds on long enough.

Yup, there is even some talk about combining Pcie5 and Pcie6 as the new standard comes out this year as Pcie5 really hasn't actually done very much in the industry yet, with a lot of key players holding off on Pcie5 due to Covid waves, shutdowns and and various chip shortages subside.




Qualcomm is "excited" for what Intel promises, and Qualcomm will get Intel to quote on their new phone and small laptop stuff going forward in addition to TSMC and Samsung.   That's all the commitment Intel has from Qualcomm, really, the chance to quote once Intel actually builds the plants.    Then, remember, Qualcomm will keep their TSMC wafer allocation going and just add Intel as a secondary source until such time Intel can supply the entire amount at a winning price point (a never ever will take place event).

It is funny that the tech that gets Qualcomm excited actually belongs to TSMC and to AMD instead belonging to Qualcomm or Intel --- funny about that little factoid, isn't it?

Intel's higher pricing isn't going to win Intel very much of anything especially if TSMC actually WANTS to retain that business ........


===================================================


Intel has taken a contract from the US Military to build a plant to make sub-1.8 nm sized stuff for them in year 2025.

Intel says they can do this with help from IBM as IBM is currently at the state of the art in ribbon FET technology.    IBM has made the up the pre-production 2nm ribbon FET that Samsung is getting ready to produce some chipsets off of.

Lots of stuff to work through on this one and Intel does not have the tech base for this super fine EUV that Samsung has developed with ASML and ARM over the years.  Not even IBM has any real production level tech at this level, they currently only have a single ASML sampling machine that is capable of running the parts we are talking about, and that only at a very slow rate.

Intel thinks they can modify the stuff they already own to do this job, in essence making up their own processes like they have done in years past ....... smoking their own brown vapor marketing dope again I see.

I wish Intel lots & lots of luck.   DARPA is their primary contracting customer for this 120 Billion dollar project and if you defraud the American Military they got a deluxe cell jest a waiting for you in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

NOTE:   Please don't try to build this complex in the deep desert south west ---- Arizona, New Mexico and Texas have all totally run out of water this summer.   Chip plants need LOTS & LOTS of water ongoing all year long .......  and once that water is used and reused at the plant a time or two it picks up too much heavy metal contaminates to be sent downstream to be mixed in with somebody downstream's drinking water or veggie plant water.
 

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