Confirmed Rumors (from Texas, supposedly)
TSMC is building a 5-3-2-1nm plant in Texas. Arkansas is mentioned as another TSMC site in some rumors.
Samsung is building a 5-3-2nm plant in Texas.
Both plants are to be complete inside 1.5 years with rolling updates to equipment planned going forward from there.
Both companies are bringing along their own favorite suppliers to support this move. Think of it as a glorified "Assembled in the USA" situation which is close enough to true.
Plant CapEx is around 11 billion dollars for each plant initially as the ASML lines in them are very expensive. Enough land was purchased for the growth and expansion of buildings.
Texas is offering the best incentive packages so Texas gets the plants we know about now. Arkansas was also mentioned as a potential location.
These plants are "any customer" plants (not dedicated).
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BTW, Intel has started saying this week that they now plan to make their own chipsets on their own Intel designed and built custom equipment in their own existing Intel facilities.
So far Intel gets sticker shock whenever they go to buy a processor built off somebody else's equipment. Pat Gelsinger finds it cheaper to use his own existing manufacturing line hardware and to hire back some of his old experts who knew how to make up the lines and how to run them (and how to tweek the processors to work on them).
Pat is also finding that Bob Swan had already burned all of Intel's "potential partner' bridges, so Pat has no choice but to go do it all on his own.
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......... speaking of getting sticker shock on processors ........
Why build the TSMC and Samsung low lithography plants right now? Avoiding the newest tariffs and taxes being put in place by our new political controllers will pay enough to make it worthwhile for all the parties concerned.
To make this game work, the incept date of the plants had to clearly precede the tariff legislation it was designed to avoid. So far this seems to be in alignment. Democrat run congress is busy chasing Trump at the moment ..... but they could swing back into tax & spend mode at any time.
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There is a new graph line for ARM computer processors
that is needed on all these graphs.Using Apple M1 for the sole contributor at this time, the ARM line takes 15-20% market share when folks finally pop the new ARM market share line into the rest of the future market share graphs. Apple M1 represents the first section of this green wave that hits starting this year. Apple is going to release the 12 core version of their chipset this year, covering all laptops and the lower side of Apple desktop PCs, with a 20 core version planned for later on.
Qualcomm and Huawei will contribute another smaller chunk this year and next, after that all the phone boys will be in there swinging their hockey sticks at Intel, AMD and at each other's heads ......
By then the market share hits landing on x86 will be larger and more noticeable.