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Who actually USED the available data? (Read 151 times)
justin_o_guy2
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Who actually USED the available data?
05/25/20 at 08:51:24
 
Why does it look like it was ignored? Were they wearing masks? NOPE, Social distancing? On a cruise ship,, with dining rooms,, and dance floors, and bars,,
And of the dead,, did they get the Zpack and zinc and everything availabe NOW? Nope,, So,, WHY is everything Not just Open, and everyone back at living life?

The real world example is the cruise ship with about 3,800 passengers trapped in a relatively small space with no real treatment at the time. Out of those 3,800 people, 702 came down with the virus and out of those 702 people, 7 died. Since the HCQ, zinc, z-pac protocol was not known at the time, you could say this group of people trapped on the cruise ship were a control group of test subjects. And the test showed that there was an approximately 20% infection rate and of the 702 people who got ill with the virus, a 1% fatality rate. That is no where near the Spanish Flu levels.
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #1 - 05/25/20 at 09:12:05
 
 I used it and presented in full every number I used to get there, with references.  You won't read it.

 Again:  It's not a direct mortality rate that was the concern.  It was the influx of patients entering limited capacity care centers in numbers that exceed their ability to provide treatment along with a circular recurrence as asymptomatic people spread it unknowingly to at-risk individuals.

 Overwhelming the system is the problem.  If your garbage news sources are saying millions will die, or that SARS-COV-2 is the worse pandemic in modern times, or that asymptomatic people are immune, or that Kohls was forced to close etc. then that is unfortunate for you.    

 Also I'd be interested in how you are managing to make a cruise ship a direct analogue for the entirety of the US as a whole.  It's like asking what the difference is between a Wal-Mart and a meat packing plant.  The differences far outweigh similarities, but it's much simpler to just say a disease should effect every building, airspace, person in the exact same way.
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #2 - 05/25/20 at 09:26:07
 
Aaaand,, hospitals werent over run,, Not only not overrun,, but that ship sent to NY was only used for about 20 beds,, Nothing like what was predicted happened. The available reports that mere mortals like myself had available were all bullshit. If you had accesss to better info,, good for you, bt America Got FUKKT,, and lied to
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Eegore
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #3 - 05/25/20 at 10:17:07
 
 I'd be interested in how you are managing to make a cruise ship a direct analogue for the entirety of the US as a whole.

 As I have said before.  Absolutely anyone can take today's information and tell someone else what they should have done.
 
 Did it kill anyone putting Mercy on a US dock to help US citizens if they needed it?  Nope.  Now that doesn't mean other restrictions were the best choice, but specifically and only the topic with the exclusion of all other topics, what damage did putting a US Navy medical ship on a US dock do?
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #4 - 05/25/20 at 11:00:56
 
Eegore wrote on 05/25/20 at 09:12:05:
"...  If your garbage news sources are saying millions will die, or that SARS-COV-2 is the worse pandemic in modern times, or that asymptomatic people are immune, or that Kohls was forced to close etc. then that is unfortunate for you.  ..."

That IS what, the "Officials", (CDC and like), the Government/s, the controlled, "Media", (which includes the UL FDS Progressive Socialist Media) SAID !

Interesting, now you are saying, 'Officials', 'Government/s', 'Major Media' are;
"...garbage news sources ..."
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Ben Franklin once said: "If you give up a freedom, for the sake of security, you will have neither".
Which is More TRUE, today, than yesterday.('06, S-40, Stock) well, mostly .
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Eegore
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #5 - 05/25/20 at 11:23:59
 
 That IS what, the "Officials", (CDC and like), the Government/s, the controlled, "Media", (which includes the UL FDS Progressive Socialist Media) SAID !


 Can you point me to one report from the CDC that predicted millions of deaths?  I am aware of some used, and released by the White house that the CDC pointed out was not to be used as they were demonstrative.  


 "Major Media" is garbage resource, I've been saying that on here since I've been posting.  They very obviously alter coverage to appeal to their consumers for ad revenue incentive.  

 "Officials" that can/will not provide their sources are garbage resources.  "Governments" is a huge pool of collective resource, any that can/will not provide their sources are garbage resources.

 Websites that cut apart quoted from different occasions, cite losing court cases as precedent, leave out sections of reports, etc. etc. are also garbage news.  Facebook checklists are garbage resources.  YouTube physicians that "decline respectfully" to provide the source material they got their numbers from are garbage resources.

 There's a lot of garbage.  I prefer garbage that at least provides me enough information to replicate that garbage myself and not ones that just say stuff I like to hear.
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #6 - 05/25/20 at 13:00:26
 
Eegore wrote on 05/25/20 at 10:17:07:
 I'd be interested in how you are managing to make a cruise ship a direct analogue for the entirety of the US as a whole.

 As I have said before.  Absolutely anyone can take today's information and tell someone else what they should have done.
 
 Did it kill anyone putting Mercy on a US dock to help US citizens if they needed it?  Nope.  Now that doesn't mean other restrictions were the best choice, but specifically and only the topic with the exclusion of all other topics, what damage did putting a US Navy medical ship on a US dock do?



I didnt say it Did damage
I said it was hardly used
Which is an indictment of the Big Scary Numbers that someone was was producing, OR,, That ship wouldnt have been sent there..
Models WROng,,

And how do you NOT use the cruise ship as at least useful data? It obviously isnt 100% accurate, BUT Its Actual DATA,, nit death from alcohol poisoning Called CV..

There was a Carrier,, and sailors,, and That data was used How? And I think a second cruise ship, I never saw anyone actually discuss how those numbers were being used in projecting,,
WHO made the models? Ive seen a guys name come up, several times,, Cat temember it, But,, a few details stuck,, He had been involved in other little pandemic moments,, ALL OF HIS MODELS were not wrong, but Embarrassingly WRONG,, and, because he has a degree,, he keeps a job, and is an EXPERT,, and Mere mortals MUST do as Exoerts SAY, or get arrested,,

FUUK NO.. They can sukkadikk,,
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #7 - 05/25/20 at 13:01:23
 
I'd be interested in how you are managing to make a cruise ship a direct analogue for the entirety of the US as a whole.


Dont put words in my mouth
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srinath
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #8 - 05/25/20 at 20:19:14
 
I love the over reaction, the first day I need to go back in the office I'll make sure I cough and sneeze a lot. I really like working from home etc etc.
I have freaking lost 50% of my paltry 401K, the least the Chinese owe me is to WFH for ever and the other related perks.
Yea virus is a joke - even among old people who typically go on cruise ships its a low low low fatality rate.
Cool.
Srinath.
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Eegore
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #9 - 05/25/20 at 20:24:32
 
"And how do you NOT use the cruise ship as at least useful data? It obviously isnt 100% accurate, BUT Its Actual DATA,, nit death from alcohol poisoning Called CV.."

 I did, as did the CDC.  I presented the information on here in full.  Every number, every justification.  Cruise ship is there.  But you aren't going to read it, and also keep claiming it wasn't used.

 You asked about the AZ models, I presented information about their accuracy and now that's forgotten.  CO modeling is very close to real numbers, and CO is actively remunerating the UCOD numbers to account for the CDC coding for those models.  We need to elucidate the information metrics for different models then average them. When a prediction of census is an increase of 39% and we get 34% that's pretty darn close.

 Millions of deaths in the US, where?  Where did the CDC claim this?

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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #10 - 05/26/20 at 06:34:11
 
CO modeling is very close to real numbers, and CO is actively remunerating the UCOD numbers to account for the CDC coding for those models.

engrish pleeze
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #11 - 05/26/20 at 06:38:08
 

 Some CO models try to account for underlying cause of death (UCOD) so everyone that dies in the next week aren't in the SARS-COV-2 primary mortality rate.

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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #12 - 05/26/20 at 08:04:57
 
Eegore wrote on 05/26/20 at 06:38:08:
 Some CO models try to account for underlying cause of death (UCOD) so everyone that dies in the next week aren't in the SARS-COV-2 primary mortality rate.  

OK, 'Some',
and, 'the next week'.

So now, CO models are now totally up to Par ????

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Ben Franklin once said: "If you give up a freedom, for the sake of security, you will have neither".
Which is More TRUE, today, than yesterday.('06, S-40, Stock) well, mostly .
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #13 - 05/26/20 at 10:46:53
 
I totally dont get it
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Eegore
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Re: Who actually USED the available data?
Reply #14 - 05/26/20 at 11:51:21
 

OK, 'Some'

Yes.  There is more than one model type and many parameters.  

 
and, 'the next week'.

 Yes.  As in the 7 days following each model prediction.  A prediction is made for percentages 7 days out, and that would make it the next week.  "Some" models do this but not all.  For instance a monthly model would not use a 7 day review.


"So now, CO models are now totally up to Par ????"

 I can send you all the available numbers and you can look them over and tell me when they were not.  When they are asked to go to DC to demonstrate how they are building the metrics I can only hope it is not as an example of what not to do.

 Bottom line is we make a prediction percentage and then check that prediction with actual numbers within medical centers.  Those numbers historically are very close, within single digits.
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