Some of the best quotes;

"...In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns.
Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work.

School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates.
But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow,
if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more.

School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease...."

We don't have enough data, rolf. You don't even know the data that is freely available. First of all we have the data from China, where they tried to suppress the knowledge, then when they realised what they had i.e. a new SARS they initiated draconian measures, which is easier for them.

I was as amazed as Trump when it exploded in the US which is now the most infected country. What the experts in China knew was how this differed from other SARS and MERS, it may not be the most deadly but it spreads at an amazingly fast rate.

This is because unlike the other RS's it does not just infect the upper, or the lower repertory tract. The lower is more serious, the upper spreads faster and there might be no or almost no symtoms.

Then it drops down to the lower tract, and that's where the trouble starts. But it's not just about deaths, it's about the complete inundation of medical capacity. If 20% don't die but just need to be hospitalised, and they cannot be treated, not only they but all the other people who need hospital care.

The data so far is a couple of weeks ago Trumps said only 30 cases and it will probably be down to nothing soon. And we now know that the US has overtaken China with 85,000. So Fauci was exactly right and Trump wasted three weeks because, experts, shmexperts, eh?

For me I'm just watching it unfold. Fauci reckons 200,000 dead, in the US would be a lower estimate, could be 2 million if it's ignored. Personally I can't see 200k dead but Fauci is the world's number one expert.

Fauci also said, that there will be a second wave, and it's possible that it could be a permanent seasonal infection like influenza, which is a worry because it's so dangerous. The hope is that if it does become seasonal that it will become less virulent, which is the normal course.

I get a feeling that Fauci doesn't want to find out the hard way. I'm amazed that Trump's supporters don't care about anything. How many times has Trump gone bankrupt, thing is it's never his money, right now he's gambling with your money. They say you get the leaders you deserve. I'm not sure that's true, but there's some truth there.

JoG you quote John Ioannidis, apparently he's actually done nothing, but he's written some influential papers, pretty normal and ordinary stuff, everyone writes papers. Ionnidis has no serious credential, just letters after his name. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

Fauci on the other hand is an expert in this field, yeah but what has he done... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci

Fauci has made important scientific observations that contributed to the understanding of regulation of the human immune response, and is recognized for delineating the mechanisms whereby immunosuppressive agents adapt to that response.

He developed therapies for formerly fatal diseases such as polyarteritis nodosa, granulomatosis with polyangiitis, and lymphomatoid granulomatosis.

In a 1985 Stanford University Arthritis Center Survey of the American Rheumatism Association, membership ranked Fauci's work on the treatment of polyarteritis nodosa and granulomatosis with polyangiitis as one of the most important advances in patient management in rheumatology over the previous 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci

COVID-19

Fauci speaks to the White House press corps on COVID-19 in March 2020
Fauci is a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force established in late January 2020, under President Trump, to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.[13][14] He said that the final case fatality rate of those who are infected will likely be closer to 1% than the 2% initially estimated by the World Health Organization, which is still ten times the 0.1% reported rate for seasonal flu.[15][16][17]

Trump said, what's the biggie, 32,000 dies of seasonal flu. Which has a mortality rate of .1%, so at Fauci's 1% final estimate, it 10 times that of the flu. So if Covid19 becomes seasonal, then you can add 320,000 a year as normal.

Do you care? Or course you don't you're a persistent fool. The thing I wonder is, why? You're clearly able to analyses stuff when it comes to a bike, and you surely still defer to experts in other areas. What is your endgame, do you just feel stuck in defending Trump, do you identify with him so much that his credibility is your credibility? You should be angry at Trump for putting you in this conundrum.

Make no mistake, I'll put money on it that Trump is gone this election, he suckered the US and they know it. No one wants Biden, but they want someone who people will vote for, and that is Biden. Just like the best Trump had going for him was that he's not Hilary, so the best thing Biden has going for him is he's not Trump. Bernie's might be a better candidate, but he not better at beating Trump. Biden is a known quantity, that's why Trump already planned on taking him out with the help of Ukraine.

The whole of America almost knows Trump was a mistake and they don't want to take another chance, better the devil you know, that's why Biden is the only one. I see that now. Earlier I was looking for the best candidate, but that is not what the USA wants, they want this nightmare over.

That's my take and my reasoning.

I remember when the headphone jack was removed from the iPhone, and replaced with a $200 solution in the next breath. So just like Trump did nothing for 3 weeks and ignored the worlds experts. Apple was mercilessly mocked, and no one could see far enough ahead.

So who was right, Apple who are the experts, or everyone else.... I judge who knows what by their performance over time, and love them or hate them, that everyone mocks them then loses the market doesn't stop them.

They're stuck in a loop like the rabid Trumpists on here, they can't back down but they only lose face, where as the companies that mocked Apple lost an entire market, but they can't stop they mock then copy when its too late. Keyboard on a laptop close to the screen not the bottom, they mocked that then EVERYONE followed, they mocked the iPad, the iWatch, the iPhone, the notch, you name it. Hilarious.

And Fox follows, and just like Fox watcher are mainly Trumpists, they naturally don't take the virus seriously. When this is all over and they have the big statistics after a year, I think it would be a fascinating chart to show how many were infected and how many died, based on political affiliation.

If it turns out that if a statistically significant number of republican voters died compared to democrat voters, then we''ll see directly that Trump is killing Americans with his lies.

After a year there may not be any statistical significance because even die hard Trump voters are being bombarded with the truth in spite of Trump.


Eegore wrote on 03/27/20 at 03:58:45:

"Having CV and DYING doesn't mean you were killed BY CV.Co-morbidity factors aren't being included in the fatality rates."

 I agree with this but evidence worldwide indicates that even if you die from something other than SARS-CoV-2, it is SARS-CoV-2 that is putting a huge number of humans into lethal respiratory distress at a rate that exceeds the availability of care.  Let's say it isn't SARS-CoV-2 and everyone is wrong about that - there are still piles of dead bodies caused by something.

 This is already happening, not maybe happening.  I see no issue with preparing to have the same, or larger level of compromise immune systems than anywhere else on the planet.  Nothing presented so far leads me to believe the US will be exempt from the massive increase in medical demand.