WebsterMark wrote on 12/06/19 at 08:10:55:


There's been a lot of analysis of such numbers, including a view of economic trends since the economic collapse of 2007.  

The unemployment figure must be considered in light of what it represents- a shrinking workforce, as a considerable portion of the workforce has left the market.   As with any trend statistic, by curtailing the period, most any narrative can be advanced.   The Labor Force Participation Rate is about 3% lower than the pre-rescission stabilized rate, and 4% under the 2000 high.   Of those employed, At-Will employment laws have combined with dynamic staffing practices, resulting in work insecurity and the requirement for multiple employment sources.

The year's wage growth started on target, reaching 4% in the second quarter- then falling over a full point before being buoyed by tepid holiday hiring.   Keep in mind wage growth lags far below the pre-recession trend line; combined with inflation, this amounts to effective purchase power loss- especially for the bottom half of earners, subject to radically inflating rents, and priced out of the housing market.

That said, the Trump Administration is only fractionally responsible for these outcomes, good and bad.   The tax cut stimulus proportionately impacted the highest earners, who mostly used the opportunity to buy back stock instead of capital investments; the consumer spending bump was transient.   Coupled with trade war losses, adjustment of what a previous Fed Chair once labeled "irrational exuberance", and growing policy liabilities, the direction of Administrative impact is uncertain.

Markets aren't big on uncertainty, as this week's response to Trump's suggestion that his Trade War with China will likely drag out beyond his first term testifies.

The Democrats are going to impeach the current President of this economy because he held up millions of dollars in aid destined for a corrupt country like Ukraine for a couple of weeks...

The preview of articles of impeachment include obstruction of justice in the Independent Counsel Inquiry, and bribery, among others.   Aid to Ukraine was only released after the plot was discovered.   Review of testimony and record before Congress has demonstrated clear violations of the US Constitution by the President.   The details are beyond the scope of easy address in a post such as this.

...because former VP Biden's son was making millions in an industry which he didn't know $hit about, was clearly hired for access to Biden and in a country where the entire Russian collusion BS had it's origins?

According to US intelligence, Putin was the motive force behind Russian interference in our elections.   The Ukrainian Conspiracy Theory has been thoroughly debunked, also by our intelligence agencies, with reports at the disposal of the President.

Without doubt, the employment of Hunter Biden was entirely about access to or currying favor with former Vice President Joe Biden.   The practice should be illegal; sadly, it is not.   Were there basis in law for taking action against the Bidens, the FBI would have been deployed to investigate, charges would have been filed.   There was not.   The President's acts- personally, and via his personal agents -were a violation of law and the Constitution, and are subject to impeachment and prosecution.

The total labor force participation was nearly unchanged at 63.2%, just a hair below October’s 63.3%, which had reflected the largest share of the working population employed or looking for work since 2013.

Examination of the zig-zaging Labor Participation Rate shows a mean level in close proximity of where it stabilized around late 2013- which was the bottom of a very long decent; while the peeks and troughs are still within less than half of a percent of that level, the recent high has been followed by the beginning of another lean down, and should be expected to continue as pre-Christmas highers leave the workforce.

The argument that voters should only care about impeachment based on their transient economic comfort estimates that we US citizens are willing to sell our democracy, Constitution and all- and is one we all should reject.   Clearly a portion of the Republican Party are banking on the electorate opting into complicity with Trump administration crimes, while others are leaving the party in disgust.   The Democrats have eschewed your calculus, Mark, putting the Republic above Party- and putting their faith in the integrity of the majority of the citizenry.   For all our sake, I hope they are right.   If they are wrong, you will be that much closer to your expressed desire to see our Union fall.    

People aint feeling anxiety, people (Me) is busy beating down recruiters who're not offering up better terms and $$$. Just my observation, the H1 fraud and abuse being removed from the market = better job prospects for IT workers like me.
Cool.
Srinath.

Media is stupid. They cherry pick stuff all the time. The chicken factory in Missouri where a few 100 illegals got deported, classic example, several 1000 turned up for a job fair they held the weekend after and all of em said they applied to there, never got a response - NPR simply never aired it.

They think Junta is said as Hunta - sadly that means they are pretty much stupid, all you can learn from the news (any standard commercial station) if they mention a city - say Cleveland a few times and say factory closing a few times - get onto face book, youtube, craigslist and look for yourself. Maybe a meteor hit it, maybe a tidal wave, maybe a car called a tide and a car called a meteor hit each other in the middle of town.

Main stream media was called Lame stream media in 2006-7 for cheering on the housing bubble. Very good reason behind it. They're flakier than a bowl of cereal.

Cool.
Srinath.

"Job numbers are good because many people are working 2 and 3 jobs, often with no benefits or retirement."

 So this is a big issue that is repeatedly dodged when economists ask the White House about how they get their numbers.  The labor statistics support it, economists predicted it, people say they are actively doing it, but for some reason it just isn't in the "numbers" when job status is brought up.

 As for lack of job issued retirement, this is common even in very positive economic trends.  I would dodge pensions like there's no tomorrow.

As Spock would say: "Interesting....."

“I now recall speaking individually with Mr. Yermak [at the meeting], where I said that resumption of U.S. aid would likely not occur until Ukraine provided the public anti-corruption statement that we had been discussing for many weeks,” Sondland said in his revised testimony.

Yermak, however, told Time that he had no recollection of any such conversation.

“Gordon and I were never alone together. We bumped into each other in the hallway next to the escalator, as I was walking out,” he said on the Warsaw meeting. “I remember – everything is fine with my memory – we talked about how well the meeting went. That’s all we talked about.”

Biden just said he will not appear at a senate hearing on impeachment.....

Would that be obstruction......????

Serowbot wrote on 12/12/19 at 13:22:57:


This is why we need a senate trial, where they are all under oath, or refuse a subpoena, no more muckraking.....FACTS, or perjury, or obstruction......
The argument IS Trump was concerned about Hunters involvement in Ukraine, he never said, like Schiff said, "Find me dirt"
Therefore, it is a piece of the puzzle that needs to be investigated....
Regardless of what you, or I, think.......

I would love to see EVERYONE under oath, and answering questions from BOTH sides, even Trump.....

What are you afraid of?

I just listened to Alan Dershowitz, what a scholar......a life long democrat, Hillary supporter, and Obama voter, talk about this stuff....a brilliant man, I am sure you find fault with him too......