WebsterMark wrote on 12/06/19 at 08:10:55:Details below but huge job gains last month, 3.5% unemployment, 3.1% wage growth.
There's been a lot of analysis of such numbers, including a view of economic trends since the economic collapse of 2007.
The unemployment figure must be considered in light of what it represents- a shrinking workforce, as a considerable portion of the workforce has left the market. As with any trend statistic, by curtailing the period, most any narrative can be advanced. The Labor Force Participation Rate is about 3% lower than the pre-rescission stabilized rate, and 4% under the 2000 high. Of those employed, At-Will employment laws have combined with dynamic staffing practices, resulting in work insecurity and the requirement for multiple employment sources.
The year's wage growth started on target, reaching 4% in the second quarter- then falling over a full point before being buoyed by tepid holiday hiring. Keep in mind wage growth lags far below the pre-recession trend line; combined with inflation, this amounts to effective purchase power loss- especially for the bottom half of earners, subject to radically inflating rents, and priced out of the housing market.
That said, the Trump Administration is only fractionally responsible for these outcomes, good and bad. The tax cut stimulus proportionately impacted the highest earners, who mostly used the opportunity to buy back stock instead of capital investments; the consumer spending bump was transient. Coupled with trade war losses, adjustment of what a previous Fed Chair once labeled "irrational exuberance", and growing policy liabilities, the direction of Administrative impact is uncertain.
Markets aren't big on uncertainty, as this week's response to Trump's suggestion that his Trade War with China will likely drag out beyond his first term testifies.
The Democrats are going to impeach the current President of this economy because he held up millions of dollars in aid destined for a corrupt country like Ukraine for a couple of weeks...The preview of articles of impeachment include obstruction of justice in the Independent Counsel Inquiry, and bribery, among others. Aid to Ukraine was only released after the plot was discovered. Review of testimony and record before Congress has demonstrated clear violations of the US Constitution by the President. The details are beyond the scope of easy address in a post such as this.
...because former VP Biden's son was making millions in an industry which he didn't know $hit about, was clearly hired for access to Biden and in a country where the entire Russian collusion BS had it's origins?According to US intelligence, Putin was the motive force behind Russian interference in our elections. The Ukrainian Conspiracy Theory has been thoroughly debunked, also by our intelligence agencies, with reports at the disposal of the President.
Without doubt, the employment of Hunter Biden was entirely about access to or currying favor with former Vice President Joe Biden. The practice should be illegal; sadly, it is not. Were there basis in law for taking action against the Bidens, the FBI would have been deployed to investigate, charges would have been filed. There was not. The President's acts- personally, and via his personal agents -were a violation of law and the Constitution, and are subject to impeachment and prosecution.
The total labor force participation was nearly unchanged at 63.2%, just a hair below October’s 63.3%, which had reflected the largest share of the working population employed or looking for work since 2013.Examination of the zig-zaging Labor Participation Rate shows a mean level in close proximity of where it stabilized around late 2013- which was the bottom of a very long decent; while the peeks and troughs are still within less than half of a percent of that level, the recent high has been followed by the beginning of another lean down, and should be expected to continue as pre-Christmas highers leave the workforce.
The argument that voters should only care about impeachment based on their transient economic comfort estimates that we US citizens are willing to sell our democracy, Constitution and all- and is one we all should reject. Clearly a portion of the Republican Party are banking on the electorate opting into complicity with Trump administration crimes, while others are leaving the party in disgust. The Democrats have eschewed your calculus, Mark, putting the Republic above Party- and putting their faith in the integrity of the majority of the citizenry. For all our sake, I hope they are right. If they are wrong, you will be that much closer to your expressed desire to see our Union fall.