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Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right? (Read 1037 times)
Eegore
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #120 - 08/28/19 at 08:20:54
 
"I did too. I asked how agricultural modeling software took a fraction of a degree in temperature change and made recommendations to farmers."

 Weather models don't make recommendations, they model weather and make predictions based off of historical data.  Farmers can use these predictions or not, certain crops yield higher numbers in certain climate.  

'"What specific thing did farmers do to counteract the same impact from a small temp for increase? Were they told to plant earlier, later, were they told to water more, etc... Pretty simple question. "

 Simple question but there are thousands of crops, millions of yield numbers so it will take time to assess, but only after the weather models are evaluated, blindly, for accuracy.  Then each yield that was the result of an adjustment based off of weather model prediction needs to be categorized.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #121 - 08/28/19 at 09:40:03
 
Enough of the pointless back and forth......




Our Planet is on fukcing fire.  End of story.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #122 - 08/28/19 at 12:07:35
 
Eegore wrote on 08/28/19 at 08:20:54:
"I did too. I asked how agricultural modeling software took a fraction of a degree in temperature change and made recommendations to farmers."

 Weather models don't make recommendations, they model weather and make predictions based off of historical data.  Farmers can use these predictions or not, certain crops yield higher numbers in certain climate.  

'"What specific thing did farmers do to counteract the same impact from a small temp for increase? Were they told to plant earlier, later, were they told to water more, etc... Pretty simple question. "

 Simple question but there are thousands of crops, millions of yield numbers so it will take time to assess, but only after the weather models are evaluated, blindly, for accuracy.  Then each yield that was the result of an adjustment based off of weather model prediction needs to be categorized.


So at the end of the day, the bottom line is there is no way to determine if, while the changes were positive, any of them were necessary to counteract a minor temperature change.

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Eegore
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #123 - 08/28/19 at 12:46:32
 
"So at the end of the day, the bottom line is there is no way to determine if, while the changes were positive, any of them were necessary to counteract a minor temperature change."

 I don't know how you came to that conclusion based off what I've indicated as process.  Some have used climate change models and some have not.  Those have been compared.

 Weather models do not make recommendations, they make predictions.

 People use those predictions to gain, or lose yield advantage.

 A double blind study is done to see which weather models have presented the most accuracy.

 A comparison of highest percentage change based off of each weather model is conducted.

 A comparison of highest yield outcome based off of highest percentage change with highest yield from highest weather model accuracy percentage prediction is developed.

 Then, after that it can be revealed which ones calculated global climate changes, and at what rate, to see if the prediction, not recommendation, was useful or not.

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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #124 - 08/28/19 at 13:04:13
 
I'm surprised that no one has a calculator that will predict yield for a particular crop given the average temp, rain, and sun in a particular area since this has been going on before the pharaohs.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #125 - 08/28/19 at 13:05:54
 

 There is a number of those.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #126 - 08/28/19 at 13:10:46
 
Eegore wrote on 08/28/19 at 13:05:54:
 There is a number of those.  

Seems to me that would be the answer to webbies question.
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Eegore
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #127 - 08/28/19 at 13:23:20
 

 Right, a weather model is part of that calculation.

 The problem is none of those make recommendations, which he is requesting, they make predictions.

 The difference is he is asking if the weather models that calculate in global climate change are more accurate than ones that do not.  The only way to tell is to compare past results.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #128 - 08/28/19 at 15:58:45
 
If I recall, this whole thing started based on this statement:

For me the drastic changes in agriculture in my area, and the fact we can use predictive modeling, and have, to create more efficient crop structure is to me, a consequence and can be positively confirmed as records have been kept for decades.

I keyed on the word drastic because I think this whole climate change thing has turned into a money making industry for millions. Drastic is, well to put in mildly, a drastic word. I just asked what role a tiny increase in temperature played in the modeling. I find that the idea of a tiny increase having a drastic effect questionable. Especially since I would think the average temperature from one year to the next could vary by a full degree or two in some cases. Up or down. So how does .38c average increase factor in to the equations?
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #129 - 08/28/19 at 16:20:16
 
Stop playing dodge ball.
I said
All , and I mean ALL, of the
Models that they used to try to scare us into voluntarily changing our lives, paying carbon taxes, etc.
Have been, not just less than accurate, but horribly WRONG.
I seriously don't GAF about the short term WEATHER models that have been reasonably usable.
The POINT IS
EVERY model that we were told about that warned of the
Dire Consequences of inaction
Have been WRONG.
And Mr. Hockey Stick is paying the legal bills of the guy who beat him in court.
Because Mann Will Not release the data that he used to promote the LIE.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #130 - 08/29/19 at 15:35:19
 

"I seriously don't GAF about the short term WEATHER models that have been reasonably usable."

 They are long term.  Decades old.  If only I said that multiple times before.

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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #131 - 08/29/19 at 16:19:52
 
So WHAT??
Every, EVERY,dire warning for the last thirty years
HAS BEEN COMPLETE
BULLSHIT.

Show me a prediction that happened?
And it's Got to be
A Dire consequence.
You can't.
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #132 - 08/29/19 at 20:20:26
 
 Again I was just asking why the focus on the nonsense unusable models instead of the ones that are accurate and used.

 You said every weather model is wrong.

 I think that is incorrect based off of my research and the usage in my area.

 You clarified that you mean that the incorrect models are incorrect and continued to reference "short-term" weather models saying I am moving goalposts and playing a lousy game.  

"IDGAF about the short term WEATHER models farmers use.
And that was a lousy game to play."


"I seriously don't GAF about the short term WEATHER models that have been reasonably usable."

 I indicated I meant long-term, no matter how many times you say short-term.  I still meant long-term.  Why would you expect to call me out on a topic I wasn't even talking about and have me not try to re-clarify that I am not referencing the same thing you are.

 Type short-term in again and I will again attempt to clarify I mean long-term.  

 You keep saying short-term.  I am referencing long-term, I don't know what's so hard to understand.
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #133 - 08/29/19 at 21:33:31
 
Years of SKY IS FALLING
Warnings
Not ONE dire prediction has come TRUE.

Fukking BATTING AVERAGE matters.
Something to do with
Credibility.
That's why the wrong stuff matter
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Eegore
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Re: Yeah, It's A Hoax, Right?
Reply #134 - 08/30/19 at 07:14:02
 
Years of SKY IS FALLING
Warnings
Not ONE dire prediction has come TRUE.

 
 Yes.  Just as many doomsday weather predictions have come true as there have been predictions of government implementations of martial law, also the same number of times all our guns have been taken from us.  Not ONE.

 The NRA essentially relies on the propagation of doomsday government takeover predictions.  Every few years they are on the verge of disappearing... unless you donate.  Inaccurate predictions is part of business, but only if we continue to focus on it.

 Pick a topic, there will be inaccurate predictions.  Why keep focusing on the lies instead of the useable portions?
 
 
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