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Trump's likely re-election odds (Read 161 times)
verslagen1
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #15 - 07/09/19 at 15:37:18
 
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:27:31:
verslagen1 wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:52:
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.   Grin



That's actually a great way to put it.

trump didn't so much win the election, Hillary lost it.


I think  the DNC lost it when they did the back room deal to favor her over Bernie.
And I'm not much in favor of the "superdelegates" either.

I also think Biden blew his chance.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #16 - 07/09/19 at 15:49:15
 
There will be a new batch of 18 year olds voting and they are a majority pro gun control, pro-choice, pro LBGT, pro healthcare for all,... they believe in Climate Change.  They want their future to be healthy and safe, peaceful and racially equal.
There will be an aging population of Republicans under ground in boxes.

70k votes?...  more Pub's than that died off last month...
How do Republicans fight the tide?...
Youth is progressive,... and it will always win in the end.
Now , add in the workers affected by tariffs, farmers hurt, coal miners that didn't get what was promised, Vet's insulted by Trump's abuse of McCain, and Gold Star families... parents worried about children's pre-existing conditions and LBGT children, blacks and Hispanics worried about the "good people" on the other side.  Attempts at a Muslim ban,... Women that have been assaulted but were afraid to come forward.
Republican women that have had abortions but never told their husbands or parents.
Fathers, mothers, children, spouses, uncles, aunts, cousins, friends , of people that have been killed in mass shootings and seen Republicans do nothing but send prayers.
70k was hair's breadth... and it's long gone.


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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #17 - 07/09/19 at 15:49:23
 
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:26:39:
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:47:
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:19:54:
I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true.  It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base.  But it's never been more than 45%.  Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.
Gloating doesn't matter however. Electoral College Votes do.  

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich.  He himself hasn't delivered.  No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

This is from the link. Most did get a cut. The Time story presents it as if people didn't but most everyone I know got a tax cut. I did. My kids did.

But an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this month showed that just 17 percent of Americans believe their taxes have been cut. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 21 percent thought their taxes were lowered.

That’s despite an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center that two out of three taxpayers would see their taxes go down. The biggest benefits, though, go to the top 1 percent, who are projected to receive an average tax break of $62,000 in 2018, while the middle one-fifth of income earners got an average tax cut of $1,090 — about $20 per biweekly paycheck.


Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval.  That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was.  Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates.  Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on.  He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now.  His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts.  That's it.  Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that.  However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office.  The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's.  He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

The current President gets the credit or the blame. That's how it has always been. No one's gonna listen to the "This is Obama's economy" because it isn't.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms.  He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K.  Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him.  He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

[color=#ff0000]He's also the only President to be attacked non-stop 24/7 by the main stream media from day one. No one's faced that except Trump. Certainly that has an impact in those polls.

He is his own worst enemy.[/color]

And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.



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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #18 - 07/09/19 at 15:55:42
 
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:49:15:
There will be a new batch of 18 year olds voting and they are a majority pro gun control, pro-choice, pro LBGT, pro healthcare for all,... they believe in Climate Change.  They want their future to be healthy and safe, peaceful and racially equal.
There will be an aging population of Republicans under ground in boxes.

70k votes?...  more Pub's than that died off last month...
How do Republicans fight the tide?...
Youth is progressive,... and it will always win in the end.
Now , add in the workers affected by tariffs, farmers hurt, coal miners that didn't get what was promised, Vet's insulted by Trump's abuse of McCain, and Gold Star families... parents worried about children's pre-existing conditions and LBGT children, blacks and Hispanics worried about the "good people" on the other side.  Attempts at a Muslim ban,... Women that have been assaulted but were afraid to come forward.
Republican women that have had abortions but never told their husbands or parents.
Fathers, mothers, children, spouses, uncles, aunts, cousins, friends , of people that have been killed in mass shootings and seen Republicans do nothing but send prayers.
70k was hair's breadth... and it's long gone.


That's all opinion and I could say the exact same on the other side. For example, the Democratic Candidates care more about illegals breaking in the county to steal resources than the Americans who live here. See how that works?
And the 70k does not appear to be gone. In fact, if anything, it's grown.
That's my point. Trump is not losing any ground.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #19 - 07/09/19 at 15:57:50
 

I think  the DNC lost it when they did the back room deal to favor her over Bernie.
And I'm not much in favor of the "superdelegates" either.

I also think Biden blew his chance.


And that coupled with an intense dislike of Hillary as a person caused a lot of Dems to stay home. Here's my point, when Biden drops out and the eventually winner is a far left Leftist, will moderate Democrats stay home in numbers equal to or greater than they did in 2016? I think that answer is mostly yes.
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OK.... so what's the
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #20 - 07/09/19 at 16:08:46
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:55:42:
That's my point. Trump is not losing any ground.

How many people turned 18 in the last 3-4 years?
How many people died?
What's the ratio of Right to Left?
Did you choose to ignore that part?

In the race of birthdays vs funerals,... birthdays will win.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #21 - 07/09/19 at 16:23:12
 
Enough in those key states? California and New York don’t matter.

Look it up.
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OK.... so what's the
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #22 - 07/09/19 at 16:31:12
 
You look it up.
I'm comfortable enough knowing that the trend leans in one direction.
You need to worry about how far and how fast you can hold back the tide.
One direction, every day... this tide never goes out.
Blame Climate Change... Grin


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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #23 - 07/09/19 at 16:36:29
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:49:23:
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:26:39:
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:47:
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:19:54:
I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true.  It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base.  But it's never been more than 45%.  Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.
Gloating doesn't matter however. Electoral College Votes do.  

True - and that's why he's in trouble.

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich.  He himself hasn't delivered.  No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

This is from the link. Most did get a cut. The Time story presents it as if people didn't but most everyone I know got a tax cut. I did. My kids did.

But an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this month showed that just 17 percent of Americans believe their taxes have been cut. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 21 percent thought their taxes were lowered.

That’s despite an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center that two out of three taxpayers would see their taxes go down. The biggest benefits, though, go to the top 1 percent, who are projected to receive an average tax break of $62,000 in 2018, while the middle one-fifth of income earners got an average tax cut of $1,090 — about $20 per biweekly paycheck.
- Like I said....

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval.  That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was.  Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates.  Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on.  He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now.  His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts.  That's it.  Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that.  However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office.  The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's.  He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

The current President gets the credit or the blame. That's how it has always been. No one's gonna listen to the "This is Obama's economy" because it isn't.

You can think what you want, but anyone/everyone can see that what trump took over was vastly improved over what Obama did.  And again, looking at jobs, Obama's record was better than trump's in the first 3 years.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms.  He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K.  Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him.  He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

He's also the only President to be attacked non-stop 24/7 by the main stream media from day one. No one's faced that except Trump. Certainly that has an impact in those polls.

No one is more deserving of it than trump.  He's on record lying constantly.  His administration has been a revolving door and has been under investigation from day one.  He meets in secret with putin.  He takes the word of kim jong over our own intelligence.  He's so thinned-skinned it's pathetic.  And then go back to his harassment of Obama.  The golfing, the teleprompter, etc.  Pretty much everything trump called Obama out on, he's doing even worse.

He deserves his ridicule.  But hey, at least he never wore a tan suit, huh?



And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.




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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #24 - 07/09/19 at 16:44:57
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:57:50:

I think  the DNC lost it when they did the back room deal to favor her over Bernie.
And I'm not much in favor of the "superdelegates" either.

I also think Biden blew his chance.


And that coupled with an intense dislike of Hillary as a person caused a lot of Dems to stay home. Here's my point, when Biden drops out and the eventually winner is a far left Leftist, will moderate Democrats stay home in numbers equal to or greater than they did in 2016? I think that answer is mostly yes.


I think that answer is mostly no.  Much like 2016 - voters in 2020 who are unsure will vote against trump and for the other guy/gal.

His reputation precedes him and it's not a good one.

Yes, Hillary was genuinely unlikeable.  But trump takes the cake.  Like I keep saying, how terrible do you have to be to hover in the low 40s (approval-wise) sitting on this economy?  (turns out, trump terrible)

Here's the only strategy that will work for him.

Stop tweeting and stop talking off prompter.

We all know how likely that is....
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #25 - 07/09/19 at 17:12:39
 
verslagen1 wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:52:
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.   Grin


PERFECT  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #26 - 07/10/19 at 04:49:50
 
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 16:31:12:
You look it up.
I'm comfortable enough knowing that the trend leans in one direction.
You need to worry about how far and how fast you can hold back the tide.
One direction, every day... this tide never goes out.
Blame Climate Change... Grin



Here's the critical thing; you're assuming the trend is leaning in your direction but there's no proof that's true. Trump's poll numbers are higher now that when he was elected. The economy is growing and doing well. Every Democratic candidate said they would give free healthcare to illegals, that's not going to sit well with a lot of people. Many if not all of the candidates would give college tuition support to illegals, Warren is talking about paying off student debt.

I think you're underestimating the amount of people, young people included, who find those ideas repugnant.

Another key thing; Trump's midterm losses were much, much smaller than what a mid-term President typically looes. I believe that Obama, Bush and Clinton lost more at their midterm but still won a second term.

Sure, Trump could lose, but I see the odds in his favor. Neither you nor TT have  provided much solid information that puts dents in that prediction.  

But as I've always said, you're right, you will ultimately win. But Trump is a 4 or 8 year break against the tide. Right now, I say it's an 8 year break.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #27 - 07/10/19 at 06:46:39
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/10/19 at 04:49:50:
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 16:31:12:
You look it up.
I'm comfortable enough knowing that the trend leans in one direction.
You need to worry about how far and how fast you can hold back the tide.
One direction, every day... this tide never goes out.
Blame Climate Change... Grin



Here's the critical thing; you're assuming the trend is leaning in your direction but there's no proof that's true. Trump's poll numbers are higher now that when he was elected. The economy is growing and doing well. Every Democratic candidate said they would give free healthcare to illegals, that's not going to sit well with a lot of people. Many if not all of the candidates would give college tuition support to illegals, Warren is talking about paying off student debt.

I think you're underestimating the amount of people, young people included, who find those ideas repugnant.

Another key thing; Trump's midterm losses were much, much smaller than what a mid-term President typically looes. I believe that Obama, Bush and Clinton lost more at their midterm but still won a second term.

When you take into consideration the number of local democratic wins, governorships, etc., the wins were much deeper.

Sure, Trump could lose, but I see the odds in his favor. Neither you nor TT have  provided much solid information that puts dents in that prediction.  

But as I've always said, you're right, you will ultimately win. But Trump is a 4 or 8 year break against the tide. Right now, I say it's an 8 year break.


I've seen no "solid information" from the right either.

So, consider this:

76% of Americans believe that global warming is a serious threat
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1198a1Global-Warming.pdf

65-70% of Americans want some sort of Medicare for All.
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/15/poll_medicare_for_all_su...

77% of Americans agree that money should be taken out of politics.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/08/most-americans-want-to-limit-...


America’s Political Mood Is Now the ‘Most Liberal Ever Recorded’

htt://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/americas-political-mood-is-now-most-libera
l-ever-recorded.html
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #28 - 07/10/19 at 14:29:52
 
76% of Americans believe that global warming is a serious threat
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1198a1Global-Warming.pdf

Impossible that's true. 76 out of 100 people think global warming is a serious threat yet it shows up at the bottom of polls asking voters to list what their concerns are, the best selling vehicles are pickup trucks, houses are larger than before, ocean front property still maintains high value despite the fact its the most impacted by climate change supposedly....  Sorry, but there's simply no way that's true. Ask the people on SuzukiSavage and see if 75% say climate change is a serious threat.

65-70% of Americans want some sort of Medicare for All.
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-...

Nope. Ask them this question. Are you in favor of losing your current health insurance plan that covers your spouse and children to replace it with the same management style that covers VA hospitals?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/15/poll_medicare_for_all_su...

77% of Americans agree that money should be taken out of politics.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/08/most-americans-want-to-limit-...

Sure, they say that now. However, let's say some wacho congressmen decides he wants to outlaw motorcycles in order to save money on the government's medicare for all plan. So all us motorcyclist band together and use the AMA to lobby others in the government to stop that crazy idea. But sorry, it's illegal now so bye-bye motorcycles.....   All of a sudden, money in politics when its for something you want, is a good idea....

America’s Political Mood Is Now the ‘Most Liberal Ever Recorded’

I agree. The nation will eventually die because of leftist. You will win the war.

htt://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/americas-political-mood-is-now-most-libera

l-ever-recorded.html
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #29 - 07/10/19 at 14:43:28
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/10/19 at 14:29:52:
76% of Americans believe that global warming is a serious threat
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1198a1Global-Warming.pdf

Impossible that's true. 76 out of 100 people think global warming is a serious threat yet it shows up at the bottom of polls asking voters to list what their concerns are, the best selling vehicles are pickup trucks, houses are larger than before, ocean front property still maintains high value despite the fact its the most impacted by climate change supposedly....  Sorry, but there's simply no way that's true. Ask the people on SuzukiSavage and see if 75% say climate change is a serious threat.

Just because you don't like the result, doesn't make it untrue.  Sorry mark.

65-70% of Americans want some sort of Medicare for All.
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-...

Nope. Ask them this question. Are you in favor of losing your current health insurance plan that covers your spouse and children to replace it with the same management style that covers VA hospitals?

If you ask that question then the support drops, of course.  But to say that it'd be the same system as the VA is a lie.

I'll counter your point however, look how "popular" it is to repeal Obamacare. (hint - it ain't)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/15/poll_medicare_for_all_su...

77% of Americans agree that money should be taken out of politics.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/08/most-americans-want-to-limit-...

Sure, they say that now. However, let's say some wacho congressmen decides he wants to outlaw motorcycles in order to save money on the government's medicare for all plan. So all us motorcyclist band together and use the AMA to lobby others in the government to stop that crazy idea. But sorry, it's illegal now so bye-bye motorcycles.....   All of a sudden, money in politics when its for something you want, is a good idea....

LOL - that's a straw-man.  First off, how the hell would that save money?  Secondly, if there were some wacko congressman out there to do that, he/she would never have the support of Congress and you know it.  That kind of thing is a perfect example of how a grass-roots gathering would work.

The constituency is who the reps work for, not corporations.  Thus, unlimited money in politics corrupts.

You think orange-guy is gonna listen to someone who donated $20 over someone who donated $200,000?  No way in hell.


America’s Political Mood Is Now the ‘Most Liberal Ever Recorded’

I agree. The nation will eventually die because of leftist. You will win the war.

Yeah, they said that about Social Security and Medicare, so.... (ever see the anti New Deal buttons?)

htt://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/americas-political-mood-is-now-most-libera

l-ever-recorded.html

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