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Trump's likely re-election odds (Read 161 times)
WebsterMark
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Trump's likely re-election odds
07/09/19 at 08:32:07
 
...just went even higher.

Biden apologized to pressure from the Leftist wing of the Democratic party. This improves Trump's odds because:

1) More likely than ever Biden will drop out. Being a senator all those years as well as a vice president means there are countless actions and statements he made that are potential targets for the radical wing. He's essentially poked a hole in his boat and he won't be able to bail that water fast enough. He's sunk.
2) This implicates Sanders as well.
3) The more power the radical leftist exhibits, the fewer older, moderate voters will turn out. I know older Dems like this. No way they're voting for reparations, free housing based on race, cancelled health insurance from work, higher taxes and essentially taking a risk when the economy is going so well. They ain't gonna do that. They won't vote for Trump, but they won't vote.
4) The longer Biden stays in, the better for Trump, but even if by some miracle he survives, Trump still comes out ahead. There's a percentage of Biden supporters and Harris or Warren supporters that are not compatible. If Biden stays around and wins, many of nutjobs Dems won't vote for an old white guy no matter what. If he drops out, many of Biden's supporters won't vote for a leftist like Harris or Warren. What percentage that ends up being is the $64k question but the Sanders/Hilary fiasco didn't help Hilary at all. It cost her votes. I think that duplicates itself in 2020.

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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #1 - 07/09/19 at 09:19:54
 
I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich.  He himself hasn't delivered.  No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval.  That in itself says a lot.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates.  Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on.  He's going to constantly be on the defensive.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts.  That's it.  Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.



Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.


And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #2 - 07/09/19 at 09:28:14
 
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #3 - 07/09/19 at 11:36:41
 
The left misses the big picture yet again.  The moment I saw every last person at the debate raise their hand and support giving illegals health care before Americans, I knew Trump would get re-elected.


The left ceded the middle ground to Trump voluntarily.  20 years down the road that point of view may be well received.  If the Democratic Party, as its alternative to Trump, decides to run on this radical new agenda, America will punish that hubris with a second term for Trump.

Best regards,
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #4 - 07/09/19 at 12:20:25
 
BET founder Robert Johnson praises Trump, says Democratic Party 'moved too far to the left'

Ok, no biggie, just one guy, just one vote......
However, his wealth is derived from the Black community, can't see him wanting to jeopardize that income to just to pal with a white rich dude.....

It might explain as well something I called a long time ago, there has to be a reason the libs are pandering so hard to the Black vote, and if you couple this with what Al Sharpton said recently about the democrats taking the Black vote, lumping them all together.....for granted.

Something is most assuredly up......

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/bet-founder-robert-johnson-says-democra...
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OK.... so what's the
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #5 - 07/09/19 at 12:43:47
 
Yup,.. I bet Trump has dozens of black supporters...  Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #6 - 07/09/19 at 12:56:24
 
What were those things that Johnson Said ?

"...“The party in my opinion, for me personally, has moved too far to the left,” ..."

"... the Democratic Party has become too liberal to defeat President Trump in 2020..."

"...the party has become so liberal, he isn’t supporting a particular 2020 candidate at this time..."

"...The message of some of the programs that Democrats are pushing are not resonating with the majority of the American people..."

"...The BET founder, who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, even praised some of Trump’s recent accomplishments...."

"...the economy is doing great, and it’s particularly reaching populations that heretofore had very bad problems in terms of jobs and employments and the opportunities that come with employment,” Johnson said. “African-American unemployment is at its lowest level…  I give the president a lot of credit for moving the economy in a positive direction that’s benefiting a large amount of Americans..."

"...Johnson said he gives Trump an “A+” for the economy..."

As quoted in above.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #7 - 07/09/19 at 12:57:39
 
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 12:43:47:
Yup,.. I bet Trump has dozens of black supporters...  Grin Grin Grin

Na, you confusing that with the DSA people.


(This DRIVE BY, brought to you by ...)
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #8 - 07/09/19 at 15:02:22
 
From RealClearPolitics. The average of 9 major polls.

Immediately prior to the 2016 election:
RCP Average  Favorable 37.5  Unfavorable 58.5

As of today:
RCP Average   Approve: 44.6      Disapprove: 52.1

Now the polling asked one question prior to the election which was the favorable vs unfavorable question. While in office, the question is Approve or disapprove

What you should consider is what relationship is there between the two questions and secondly should it concern you that his approval rating is essentially higher than immediately preceding the election?

From there the question to consider is: assuming everything this time next year is the same as it is today, (economy, job & wage growth etc...) would those several hundred thousand people who made the difference in the 2016 election switch to vote for Kamala Harris or Joe Biden?
That's one critical question. There are others, but why would enough of those people in those five key states switch? You can't give the standard answer; "Trump is an awful person" because based on his approval numbers, people aren't agreeing with you. It appears he's gained in that area. So tell me why he isn't going to be reelected?
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #9 - 07/09/19 at 15:03:55
 
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.


58.5% thought that just before the election and he won.
Not sure where your 65% comes from as the more likely number is 52.1%
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #10 - 07/09/19 at 15:09:47
 
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:19:54:
I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.
Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich.  He himself hasn't delivered.  No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval.  That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates.  Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on.  He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts.  That's it.  Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.


Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.
And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #11 - 07/09/19 at 15:09:52
 
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.   Grin
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #12 - 07/09/19 at 15:15:12
 
verslagen1 wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:52:
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.   Grin


65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.
  Exactly correct. Well put.
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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #13 - 07/09/19 at 15:26:39
 
WebsterMark wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:47:
T And T Garage wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:19:54:
I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true.  It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base.  But it's never been more than 45%.  Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich.  He himself hasn't delivered.  No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval.  That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was.  Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates.  Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on.  He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now.  His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts.  That's it.  Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that.  However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office.  The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's.  He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms.  He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K.  Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him.  He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

He is his own worst enemy.


And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.


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Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Reply #14 - 07/09/19 at 15:27:31
 
verslagen1 wrote on 07/09/19 at 15:09:52:
Serowbot wrote on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14:
I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary.   Grin



That's actually a great way to put it.

trump didn't so much win the election, Hillary lost it.
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