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Tariffs: The Data is In (Read 383 times)
WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #75 - 03/11/19 at 06:27:42
 
"You're making the mistake that economis is a science. It's not, or at the very least, the variables are so numerous as to be akin to quantum mechanics."

I agree but you are removing the possibility for failure.  You say that its incorrect for anyone to say tariffs are bad because the sample is too small (short time horizon) but you can also say that the tariffs are good and just part of the cure.  With the exact, same, timeframe.

I mean you don't think cancer treatment is a science, yet with tremendous variables?  

You are Pro-Trump so the verifiable math that shows a drop is just part of the process to improvement.

Others that are Anti-Trump say that the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process of failure.

I don't care who implemented the tariffs so I say the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process.  That's it.

The math shows given the time sample that tariffs, at this time, are not productive on the global average for the US.  At this time. If this trend continues the US consumer will pay more than standard inflation trends over time.

I think the issue is Pro-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may not work, and the Anti-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may succeed.  So instead of looking at empirical evidence for what it is and using it productively they argue about the evidence when they are really arguing over Trump.

I don't think it's true that pro-Trump supporters will refuse to accept bad outcomes. Look at Ann Coulter's attacks on Trump for his failure to deliver on his central campaign promise, building a wall.

However, I'm not turning on Trump because I see no downside to his Presidency at the moment. Unlike Ann, I think Trump has pushed the wall issue appropriately. He's facing a situation where leftist are willing to cut off their nose (loose their country) to spite their face (claim a Trump defeat).   The tariffs had an impact on my company's business. Not much, but a slight negative impact. Regardless, our senior management is looking at the long term benefit if it's successful which is why we aren't judging its success yet.

I hired Trump to slow the advance of Democratic liberalism which he's done.  I don't see any major mistakes Trump has made. When/if he does, I'll be the first to call him on it. He's had minor hiccups; the idea of a big military parade was stupid and I have not heard anything else since. I don't like the idea of a big July 4th thing in DC.

Now, will the Trump haters ever admit in the future tariffs worked? Never. I read this morning wage growth has hit a 10 year high along with dozens of other record economic measurements. Fools like TT will still claim this is in spite of Trump.

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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #76 - 03/11/19 at 06:40:48
 

 So would you be willing to accept that the current tariff system has verifiable data that shows, at this time, that they are not productive on the global average for the US.  Also if this trend continues the US consumer will pay more than standard inflation trends over time?

 You have indicated so far the current tariff system is going to be successful, but have not provided any verifiable information about how you have come to this conclusion.  

 Even though you say that people shouldn't claim tariffs are a failure due to the minimal timeframe of study, you can say they are going to be a success with the same information.

 To me the only reason this argument exists is because of who initiated the tariffs, Trump.  Simply because nobody is arguing over the algorithms, or the multi-source inputs, or the numbers in general, they are arguing over potential outcome.  I mean you won't even read the paper, but you know the long-term outcome?  How?
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #77 - 03/11/19 at 07:03:39
 
"I read this morning wage growth has hit a 10 year high along with dozens of other record economic measurements."

 I did too, also I read 17 of the monthly labor reports over the past two days.  Also its one of the worst months of employment placement and job growth, so its all in what we want to look at.  

Personally I verify with labor statistics:

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National):

Data pulled on March 11, 2019 (9:58:56 AM)
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t25.htm

 So is it good we have wage growth, which includes the influx of returning Federal workers by the way, or is it bad we have only added 20,000 jobs this past month instead of the well over 200,000 average from 2018?

 Depends on what math you want to look at, or possibly if you like Trump or not.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #78 - 03/11/19 at 10:25:37
 

So would you be willing to accept that the current tariff system has verifiable data that shows, at this time, that they are not productive on the global average for the US.  Yes. Also if this trend continues the US consumer will pay more than standard inflation trends over time? Yes.



You have indicated so far the current tariff system is going to be successful, but have not provided any verifiable information about how you have come to this conclusion.  
I believe I did. I said China had made statements the tariff situation had caused them to downgrade their projections and I believe they lowered a borrowing rate to incentivize expansion. Not 100% positive about the details of either, but they were partly in response to the tariff's impact on their economy.  

Even though you say that people shouldn't claim tariffs are a failure due to the minimal timeframe of study, you can say they are going to be a success with the same information.

To me the only reason this argument exists is because of who initiated the tariffs, Trump.  Simply because nobody is arguing over the algorithms, or the multi-source inputs, or the numbers in general, they are arguing over potential outcome.  I mean you won't even read the paper, but you know the long-term outcome?  How?
I don't know the long term outlook with certainty. It make sense to me that while we are in a strong position and growing, we should hit our trade enemy when he is slightly off his game. The old saying, always kick a man when he's down, never when he's up.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #79 - 03/11/19 at 10:30:03
 
So is it good we have wage growth, which includes the influx of returning Federal workers by the way, or is it bad we have only added 20,000 jobs this past month instead of the well over 200,000 average from 2018?

I don't know. I read a lot was weather related. Our overall February sales were down (actually not down, just not as much growth as expected) as was my specific segment. The fluctuation in our product sales numbers can be weather related. How much of that had to do with job growth nationally? Not sure. We'll see what March brings.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #80 - 03/11/19 at 11:32:08
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/11/19 at 06:27:42:
"You're making the mistake that economis is a science. It's not, or at the very least, the variables are so numerous as to be akin to quantum mechanics."

I agree but you are removing the possibility for failure.  You say that its incorrect for anyone to say tariffs are bad because the sample is too small (short time horizon) but you can also say that the tariffs are good and just part of the cure.  With the exact, same, timeframe.

I mean you don't think cancer treatment is a science, yet with tremendous variables?  

You are Pro-Trump so the verifiable math that shows a drop is just part of the process to improvement.

Others that are Anti-Trump say that the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process of failure.

I don't care who implemented the tariffs so I say the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process.  That's it.

The math shows given the time sample that tariffs, at this time, are not productive on the global average for the US.  At this time. If this trend continues the US consumer will pay more than standard inflation trends over time.

I think the issue is Pro-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may not work, and the Anti-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may succeed.  So instead of looking at empirical evidence for what it is and using it productively they argue about the evidence when they are really arguing over Trump.

I don't think it's true that pro-Trump supporters will refuse to accept bad outcomes. Look at Ann Coulter's attacks on Trump for his failure to deliver on his central campaign promise, building a wall.

However, I'm not turning on Trump because I see no downside to his Presidency at the moment. Unlike Ann, I think Trump has pushed the wall issue appropriately. He's facing a situation where leftist are willing to cut off their nose (loose their country) to spite their face (claim a Trump defeat).   The tariffs had an impact on my company's business. Not much, but a slight negative impact. Regardless, our senior management is looking at the long term benefit if it's successful which is why we aren't judging its success yet.

I hired Trump to slow the advance of Democratic liberalism which he's done.  I don't see any major mistakes Trump has made. When/if he does, I'll be the first to call him on it. He's had minor hiccups; the idea of a big military parade was stupid and I have not heard anything else since. I don't like the idea of a big July 4th thing in DC.

Now, will the Trump haters ever admit in the future tariffs worked? Never. I read this morning wage growth has hit a 10 year high along with dozens of other record economic measurements. Fools like TT will still claim this is in spite of Trump.


There you go - ASSuming once again mark.

As it stands right now - and you yourself have admitted to it - the tariffs have had a net negative effect on the country.

If - and only if - this should turn around, then I'll be happy to admit that they are working.

But be mindful of this, mark - the trump administration is already considering revising the tariffs.  Why?  Are his economic advisors "acting too fast"?  Shouldn't they be the smartest people in the room?

It's easy to see why you haven't, and probably will never, turn on trump.

You hate liberals that much.  Just own it and be done already.  No one is buying the trump love...
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MnSpring
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #81 - 03/11/19 at 15:51:39
 
T And T Garage wrote on 03/11/19 at 11:32:08:
 Just own it and be done already.  

The fact that Ilhan Omar has proven,
(many times, many ways)
her pattern of anti-Semitic comments.
(As well as the fact that she is a complete LIER.  
concerning her Cab ride in D.C.)
And I say: "So deal with it".

It is countered  with a very, Very, VERY, lame, 'So then you have no proof?'

Can you say the word, hypocrisy?

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


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Ben Franklin once said: "If you give up a freedom, for the sake of security, you will have neither".
Which is More TRUE, today, than yesterday.('06, S-40, Stock) well, mostly .
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T And T Garage
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #82 - 03/12/19 at 08:38:16
 
MnSpring wrote on 03/11/19 at 15:51:39:
T And T Garage wrote on 03/11/19 at 11:32:08:
 Just own it and be done already.  

The fact that Ilhan Omar has proven,
(many times, many ways)
her pattern of anti-Semitic comments.
(As well as the fact that she is a complete LIER.  
concerning her Cab ride in D.C.)

So... no proof yet, huh mn?

And I say: "So deal with it".

It is countered  with a very, Very, VERY, lame, 'So then you have no proof?'

Can you say the word, hypocrisy?

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


Well mn, you're the one making the claim that she's anti-semitic.  Therefore, the onus is on you to prove it.
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MnSpring
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #83 - 03/12/19 at 09:08:42
 
T And T Garage wrote on 03/12/19 at 08:38:16:
Well mn, you're the one making the claim that she's anti-semitic.  Therefore, the onus is on you to prove it.

WOW, Troll 101  !!!!!

It is apparent that you are to LAZY to check out what is WELL Known.

Here is a bit more of a challenge for you.
Check out her LIES, about her DC cab ride.
With THREE, different versions of events.
(If they have not been taken down by now by the UL media)


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Ben Franklin once said: "If you give up a freedom, for the sake of security, you will have neither".
Which is More TRUE, today, than yesterday.('06, S-40, Stock) well, mostly .
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T And T Garage
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #84 - 03/12/19 at 09:21:03
 
MnSpring wrote on 03/12/19 at 09:08:42:
T And T Garage wrote on 03/12/19 at 08:38:16:
Well mn, you're the one making the claim that she's anti-semitic.  Therefore, the onus is on you to prove it.

WOW, Troll 101  !!!!!

It is apparent that you are to LAZY to check out what is WELL Known.

Here is a bit more of a challenge for you.
Check out her LIES, about her DC cab ride.
With THREE, different versions of events.
(If they have not been taken down by now by the UL media)


I don't know squat about her cab ride.

That's not what I'm talking about.

You said she was anti-semitic.

You have to prove it.

Otherwise, well, you're lying.
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MnSpring
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #85 - 03/12/19 at 09:58:08
 
T And T Garage wrote on 03/12/19 at 09:21:03:
You said she was anti-semitic.

Nop, I just repeated the numerous UL reports
of what, SHE  did/said,
which is very well documented.

You are just to lazy to look yourself !


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Ben Franklin once said: "If you give up a freedom, for the sake of security, you will have neither".
Which is More TRUE, today, than yesterday.('06, S-40, Stock) well, mostly .
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T And T Garage
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #86 - 03/12/19 at 10:07:59
 
MnSpring wrote on 03/12/19 at 09:58:08:
T And T Garage wrote on 03/12/19 at 09:21:03:
You said she was anti-semitic.

Nop, I just repeated the numerous UL reports
of what, SHE  did/said,
which is very well documented.

You are just to lazy to look yourself !


LOL - no, you didn't.

I asked you to show me the quote.  You didn't/can't.

You're the one making the accusation.

You have no proof of it. (kinda sounds like someone else I know).

Tell you what - start a new thread, let's stop hijacking this one.

You go ahead and provide the quote that you think is anti-semitic and we'll dabate it there.

If not, well, maybe you should consider being quiet.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #87 - 03/12/19 at 16:33:33
 
In the original NYT article this was one of the reader's comments...

Germany has a GDP of about $4 Trillion.

They have a modest trade surplus of around $14 Billion.

They have unemployment of about 3.4%.

And they have faced the same globalization we have.

They also don't have the poverty we have.

They have good schools for the working class.

They help with trade school or college.

They have universal health care.

We have parts of the US with infant mortality of a second world country - 12 to 14 / 100,000.

After 35 years of trickle-down Reaganomics, we got an opioid crisis.
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