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Tariffs: The Data is In (Read 383 times)
WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #60 - 03/08/19 at 06:06:49
 
This may be true, but verifiable data concludes, through multiple sources, that at this time it is defeat.

That's not necessarily true. We jus saw yesterday record employment in small business. We currently are sitting on the lowest unemployment records along with a host of other positive economic news. Are you saying it's IMPOSSIBLE there is any correlation between the two? That not a single business shifted to changes in the market (and a tariff is a change to the market) and actually came out ahead? I find that hard to believe.

When in actuality all the numbers are saying is that the current implementation of tariffs have had certain specific results.

When measured by specific criteria, that is true. As mentioned before, the economy is composed of countless variables.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #61 - 03/08/19 at 06:07:45
 
You only wish I hadn't read it.

You didn't read it until after I said you hadn't read it. Guaranteed fact.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #62 - 03/08/19 at 06:30:37
 

"Are you saying it's IMPOSSIBLE there is any correlation between the two?"

 No, I never said that.  There businesses that have come out ahead, the reference paper indicates this, but its not about one business it's about global average.  This further proves my point, pro-Trump will focus on the good.

 I said that the empirical evidence provided here can, and has, been verified by means of multiple sources.  

 Anyone can pull up countering information, and I would be glad to look it over, but in most cases its opinion without study and the source material doesn't show the method of how they reached their numbers.  

 So with the actual, as in useable, verifiable information that is currently available, Trump or no Trump, those numbers show tariffs have had negative impact that require adjustment to become profitable.

 Anti-Trump hears "tariffs are bad"  Pro-Trump hears "needs adjustment"
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #63 - 03/08/19 at 09:41:36
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/08/19 at 06:07:45:
You only wish I hadn't read it.

You didn't read it until after I said you hadn't read it. Guaranteed fact.


Really?

Prove it.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #64 - 03/08/19 at 09:42:49
 
Eegore wrote on 03/08/19 at 06:30:37:
"Are you saying it's IMPOSSIBLE there is any correlation between the two?"

 No, I never said that.  There businesses that have come out ahead, the reference paper indicates this, but its not about one business it's about global average.  This further proves my point, pro-Trump will focus on the good.

 I said that the empirical evidence provided here can, and has, been verified by means of multiple sources.  

 Anyone can pull up countering information, and I would be glad to look it over, but in most cases its opinion without study and the source material doesn't show the method of how they reached their numbers.  

 So with the actual, as in useable, verifiable information that is currently available, Trump or no Trump, those numbers show tariffs have had negative impact that require adjustment to become profitable.

 Anti-Trump hears "tariffs are bad"  Pro-Trump hears "needs adjustment"    


As always Eegore - very well put!
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #65 - 03/08/19 at 09:44:16
 
yes I read the article
how can a 25% cost increase to YOU and ME be of any value
it is just  another form of taxation on US the consumer
check the "made in" labeling on the products you purchase
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WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #66 - 03/08/19 at 10:01:01
 
You're looking at the hair loss and tiredness of a chemo patient and declaring the treatment a failure.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #67 - 03/08/19 at 10:09:16
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/08/19 at 10:01:01:
You're looking at the hair loss and tiredness of a chemo patient and declaring the treatment a failure.


there is none so blind than he who refuses to see
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #68 - 03/08/19 at 10:13:42
 
"You're looking at the hair loss and tiredness of a chemo patient and declaring the treatment a failure. "


 Isn't that the same as saying:

You're looking at the hair loss and tiredness of a chemo patient and declaring the treatment a success.

 None of those symptoms can provide enough information to say success or failure, but in this case it's not symptom but verifiable data that is being analyzed - not symptoms.

 So would it be more accurate to say:

"You're looking at the verifiable data recording malignant cancerous cell growth of the patient and declaring the treatment a failure."


 That could be similar to saying you are willing to acknowledge that the patient is in "Remission" but not acknowledging that remission can mean zero reduction.  Remission only means no growth or expansion of cancerous cells, yet because you like the Oncologist treating the patient the prospective treatment is good.

 Remission is good, but treatment prospective is at 0% effectiveness according to verifiable data.

 The numbers say 0% effective no matter who the Oncologist is.  So should we spend time associating care with the Oncologist we like, or the numbers that provide evidence that can be used for future treatment?

 As it stands now the numbers say the patient has had an increase in cancerous growth.  That's it.  Yet we argue about the prospective outcome based off of our preference for the treating Oncologist.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #69 - 03/08/19 at 14:58:59
 
As it stands now the numbers say the patient has had an increase in cancerous growth.  That's it.  Yet we argue about the prospective outcome based off of our preference for the treating Oncologist.

No, I know the growth is a temporary by-product of the cure (if we want to keep this analogy going) China's worried. That's good. That's an indication we're making progress. Fact is someone had to do something, pu$$y boy Obama wasn't going to, neither did Bush. Couldn't just sit back and keep getting $hit on.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #70 - 03/08/19 at 16:38:58
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/08/19 at 14:58:59:
As it stands now the numbers say the patient has had an increase in cancerous growth.  That's it.  Yet we argue about the prospective outcome based off of our preference for the treating Oncologist.

No, I know the growth is a temporary by-product of the cure (if we want to keep this analogy going) China's worried. That's good. That's an indication we're making progress. Fact is someone had to do something, pu$$y boy Obama wasn't going to, neither did Bush. Couldn't just sit back and keep getting $hit on.



Face it mark - you've lost this battle.

Eegore is far and away more versed in this than you.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #71 - 03/08/19 at 17:00:54
 
"by-product of the cure"

 This is where I have issue, you have already decided the "treatment" is a "cure".  How would you know with such a small sampling of treatment that the patient will be cured?  It is because you have already decided that the cure method works so all numbers after is simply a process towards victory.

 Math doesn't care about victory, or cures, or death.

 If a cancer patient presents with 50% cancer growth at 1% non-exponential (to avoid calculating mass and displacement of tissue for convenience) every week and we evaluate one month of a 12-month treatment program it should be safe to say we are looking at 8.34% of a total treatment program intended to eliminate not just growth but malignant cells altogether.

 8.34 x 12 = 100.08  

 If the patient after 1 month presents with 54% total cancer growth it can be assumed that in 51 weeks they will reach 100.08% malignant cells and die.  Is there any other way that math - given the time sample - can possibly present another outcome?

 Unless of course adjustments are made to treatment, or the body adjusts to the cancer.  

 Insisting that a cure is going to work with 8.34% of total data is no different than insisting that the cure won't work.

 Insisting that there isn't enough information about tariff results to say they won't work is no different than saying there isn't enough information about tariff results to say they will.  Unless some factor, like Trump, alters the concept.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #72 - 03/09/19 at 05:55:15
 
You're making the mistake that economis is a science. It's not, or at the very least, the variables are so numerous as to be akin to quantum mechanics.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #73 - 03/09/19 at 08:21:50
 
"You're making the mistake that economis is a science. It's not, or at the very least, the variables are so numerous as to be akin to quantum mechanics."

 I agree but you are removing the possibility for failure.  You say that its incorrect for anyone to say tariffs are bad because the sample is too small (short time horizon) but you can also say that the tariffs are good and just part of the cure.  With the exact, same, timeframe.

 I mean you don't think cancer treatment is a science, yet with tremendous variables?  

 You are Pro-Trump so the verifiable math that shows a drop is just part of the process to improvement.

 Others that are Anti-Trump say that the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process of failure.

 I don't care who implemented the tariffs so I say the verifiable math that shows a drop is part of the process.  That's it.

 The math shows given the time sample that tariffs, at this time, are not productive on the global average for the US.  At this time. If this trend continues the US consumer will pay more than standard inflation trends over time.

 I think the issue is Pro-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may not work, and the Anti-Trump will refuse to accept that the tariffs as they are now may succeed.  So instead of looking at empirical evidence for what it is and using it productively they argue about the evidence when they are really arguing over Trump.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #74 - 03/10/19 at 15:39:28
 
Game, set and match to Eegore.
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