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Tariffs: The Data is In (Read 383 times)
T And T Garage
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #15 - 03/05/19 at 15:51:19
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/05/19 at 14:55:14:
The fact you never read it before you made your post is more solid a truth than anything Krugman said about the article. Now, you may have read it since, but you hadn’t before. You and I both know that to be true.

LMAO - mark, do you have any idea how dumb you sound?

Let me ask you this - what makes you think I didn't read it?

Are you following me?????

Face it mark - you're wrong, I read it, you didn't - yet you tell me that I didn't.  Seriously, who the hell do you think you are??

Are the figures in the article facts? I don’t know and neither do you. I instantly suspect them because Krugman like you, has a severe case of TDS.

Well mark, the numbers are garnered from the Fed, professors of economics and CEPR.

If you're too lazy to read it, that's your fault.  Don't project that on me.

My guess is when I get home later this week, I could find another set of facts that don’t support this set of facts. Again, economics is less a science and more statistics manipulated as spin.


My guess is that you won't.  Since you're too lazy to read this paper, why the hell would you read another?  (oh, wait - you'll read one that is in favor of the tariffs and doesn't report the truth... right?).

Tell you what - go ask the farmers how well they like these tariffs.  Go talk to the rust belt.  Go to Lordstown OH and ask the last 1500 left there how well they like these tariffs....(though not the only reason they got fired, but it sure ain't helpin')

SMH
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WebsterMark
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #16 - 03/05/19 at 19:08:11
 
You didn't read it because it's 41 pages of very dry, technical language with economic formulas only a geek would read for recreation. You might be a lot of things, but a math, economy geek ain't one of them.

I didn't read it because 1) if Krugman cited it, I suspect it and 2) I'm outta town working.

Only one of us is being honest.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #17 - 03/05/19 at 19:46:53
 
 I read it and have some issue with the NY Times article but the math presented in the actual paper appears sound.  Besides on more than one occasion on this forum it has been brought up that the "source" is to be considered irrelevant if the "information" is correct.

 Initially when they assumed that the U.S. Government uses the tariff revenue to generate social welfare benefits equal to the tax burden I was wondering how that could be verified, but it can.

 So without presenting the opposing assumption, and using the algorithms in the paper I was able to come up with an outcome that is in other sources as well, prior to looking them up.  The predicted number was almost exact (12.298 billion) to the actual verifiable data of 12.3 billion.

 I'd put the full breakdown here but I doubt anyone would use it.  I put the actual WTO tariff breakdowns in another thread and those weren't used either.  
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #18 - 03/05/19 at 19:56:30
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/05/19 at 19:08:11:
You didn't read it because it's 41 pages of very dry, technical language with economic formulas only a geek would read for recreation. You might be a lot of things, but a math, economy geek ain't one of them.

I didn't read it because 1) if Krugman cited it, I suspect it and 2) I'm outta town working.

Only one of us is being honest.


So sorry for you mark - but you are just a sad, bitter person that projects your discontent on others.

I read the report.  You refuse to believe it for the reasons I state above.

Give it up - you don't know me.  You have no idea what I do.  You only want to project your ideas of who I am.

That only resides in your head.  No in real life.

Check yourself before you wreck yourself.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #19 - 03/05/19 at 19:59:00
 
Eegore wrote on 03/05/19 at 19:46:53:
 I read it and have some issue with the NY Times article but the math presented in the actual paper appears sound.  Besides on more than one occasion on this forum it has been brought up that the "source" is to be considered irrelevant if the "information" is correct.

Agreed - to a degree.  The NYT article is an op-ed, so yeah, I can see why web might be pissy about it.

But like you said, the numbers are what they are.

 Initially when they assumed that the U.S. Government uses the tariff revenue to generate social welfare benefits equal to the tax burden I was wondering how that could be verified, but it can.

 So without presenting the opposing assumption, and using the algorithms in the paper I was able to come up with an outcome that is in other sources as well, prior to looking them up.  The predicted number was almost exact (12.298 billion) to the actual verifiable data of 12.3 billion.

 I'd put the full breakdown here but I doubt anyone would use it.  I put the actual WTO tariff breakdowns in another thread and those weren't used either.  

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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #20 - 03/06/19 at 04:42:56
 
BS. You didn't read it when you said you did.
I believe Eeg read it. You? No way.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #21 - 03/06/19 at 04:51:45
 
Eegore wrote on 03/05/19 at 19:46:53:
 I read it and have some issue with the NY Times article but the math presented in the actual paper appears sound.  Besides on more than one occasion on this forum it has been brought up that the "source" is to be considered irrelevant if the "information" is correct.

 Initially when they assumed that the U.S. Government uses the tariff revenue to generate social welfare benefits equal to the tax burden I was wondering how that could be verified, but it can.

 So without presenting the opposing assumption, and using the algorithms in the paper I was able to come up with an outcome that is in other sources as well, prior to looking them up.  The predicted number was almost exact (12.298 billion) to the actual verifiable data of 12.3 billion.

 I'd put the full breakdown here but I doubt anyone would use it.  I put the actual WTO tariff breakdowns in another thread and those weren't used either.  


I've got other stuff to do today so I'll be honest and say I won't read it. Probably won't read it when I bet home either. It's just not that interesting to me and judgments on the effectiveness of Trump's tariff  is premature. And again, if it "costs" to hurt China, then let's decide if it's worth the cost.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #22 - 03/06/19 at 05:38:01
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/06/19 at 04:42:56:
BS. You didn't read it when you said you did.
I believe Eeg read it. You? No way.



LOL - whatever helps you sleep at night mark.  But, just like everything you've written to/about me - you're wrong.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #23 - 03/06/19 at 07:21:29
 

"It's just not that interesting to me and judgments on the effectiveness of Trump's tariff  is premature."

 Incidentally that is mentioned in the paper as they indicate that the "horizon timeline" is considerably shorter than standard since the tariff implementation has been so recent.

 So the effects should be considered part of the initial reaction phase, and I believe the assessment and math in the paper is correct at this time, tariffs are costing the US more, however I don't think we have enough information to know what the adjustments phase will end up doing.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #24 - 03/06/19 at 10:07:06
 
Gee..... wonder why my friend TT didn't mention that important point. It's almost like he didn't read it.........

I'm not the first one to use the 'big ship trying to turn' analogy for the US economy. There are too many moving parts to accurately predict cause/effect.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #25 - 03/06/19 at 12:01:39
 
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-beijing-cuts-growth-tar...

Assume for a moment this is correct and the tariffs force China to make an adjustment to their policys that in the end are a net gain for us.
Everyone gonna be happy then?
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #26 - 03/06/19 at 13:22:18
 
"Assume for a moment this is correct and the tariffs force China to make an adjustment to their policys that in the end are a net gain for us."

 There's little actual evidence to support this.  The article itself references one official source prediction, and weighs the rest on one person's viewpoint.  The survey information is state supplied from a well known provider of inaccurate information.  

 Would we be happy if these predictions were accurate?  I would hope so.

 Is the source material for the opinion anywhere close to the information used in the other article?  Not at all.

 I prefer to make my decisions based off of economic data vs economic opinion.  
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #27 - 03/06/19 at 14:47:53
 
Economics IS opinion from data.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #28 - 03/06/19 at 16:00:24
 
"Economics IS opinion from data."

 I think economics is more of a study than an opinion by definition.  I can study things and not formulate an opinion.  I can also form an opinion without study.  Economics requires study to provide an accurate opinion, and I want accuracy more than I want ideas.

 To clarify:

 I prefer when formulating a strategy involving my personal application  of fund allocation, implementation and usage to utilize opinions that provide verifiable data versus ones that do not.  Specifically empirical data that can be verified through replication of results over opinions that have no, or minimal empirical data and can not be replicated.

 My personal assessment of "economic opinion" sits in the category of opinion with little or no study, or empirical data.

 My personal assessment of "economic data" is the collection of  empirical information specific to the economy being studied with opinion being optional.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #29 - 03/06/19 at 17:06:34
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/06/19 at 10:07:06:
Gee..... wonder why my friend TT didn't mention that important point. It's almost like he didn't read it.........

First of all - I'm not your friend.

Second, you certainly are holding fast to your imagination - with no proof whatsoever.

Not my fault you don't like facts.

Sleep well mark.


I'm not the first one to use the 'big ship trying to turn' analogy for the US economy. There are too many moving parts to accurately predict cause/effect.

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