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Tariffs: The Data is In (Read 383 times)
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Tariffs: The Data is In
03/04/19 at 13:09:22
 
On Saturday economists from Columbia, Princeton, and the New York Federal Reserve released a paper, “The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare,” that used detailed import data to assess the tariffs’ impact. (The paper, by the way, is a beautiful piece of work.) The conclusion: to a first approximation, foreigners paid none of the bill, U.S. companies and consumers paid all of it. And the losses to U.S. consumers exceeded the revenue from the new tariffs, so the tariffs made America poorer overall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/opinion/how-goes-the-trade-war.html
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #1 - 03/04/19 at 14:48:15
 
Beginning to think MAGA can't possibly mean what he says it does...  Huh
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Ludicrous Speed !... ... Huh...
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #2 - 03/04/19 at 15:21:25
 
Anything from Paul Krugman is likely flat out wrong or distorted due to his coke bottle sized TDS glasses. This is no different.

The only important line out of the whole thing is:
Now, the numbers aren’t that big. The new paper puts the net welfare loss at $1.4 billion a month, or $17 billion a year; that’s less than 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP.
Yea, .1%......  That's makes for a beautiful piece of work alright.....

oh, and there's this very technical scientific term called 'probably' used in this sentence:
By the way, in practice any manufacturing jobs added by the Trump tariffs are probably offset by losses of other manufacturing jobs.

Krugman is famous for being wrong on virtually everything because his politics cloud his vision. Why don't you find a 3rd grader, give him crayons and tell him to write you an article on economics. Your odds of the kid getting closer to the truth than Krugman would be pretty good.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #3 - 03/04/19 at 15:21:43
 
Serowbot wrote on 03/04/19 at 14:48:15:
Beginning to think MAGA can't possibly mean what he says it does...  Huh



Make America Gag Aloud
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #4 - 03/04/19 at 15:28:33
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/04/19 at 15:21:25:
Anything from Paul Krugman is likely flat out wrong or distorted due to his coke bottle sized TDS glasses. This is no different.

The only important line out of the whole thing is:
Now, the numbers aren’t that big. The new paper puts the net welfare loss at $1.4 billion a month, or $17 billion a year; that’s less than 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP.
Yea, .1%......  That's makes for a beautiful piece of work alright.....

oh, and there's this very technical scientific term called 'probably' used in this sentence:
By the way, in practice any manufacturing jobs added by the Trump tariffs are probably offset by losses of other manufacturing jobs.

Krugman is famous for being wrong on virtually everything because his politics cloud his vision. Why don't you find a 3rd grader, give him crayons and tell him to write you an article on economics. Your odds of the kid getting closer to the truth than Krugman would be pretty good.


What exactly are you disputing, the numbers or the guy who reported them?

Because the numbers are facts.  Your opinion of Kruger doesn't enter into it or change them.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #5 - 03/04/19 at 16:11:31
 
Given, any tax is passed onto the consumer.  But tariffs are meant to equalize the cost of imported goods to domestic and he proves it so what is his point?  The rest is pure conjecture.
And where are you grammar natzies?
And I don't get how producing something domestically does harm?  Let's layoff all those minorities that just found jobs. Pure BS.

Quote:
Consider the following example: pre-tariff, the U.S. imports some good from China that costs $100. Then the Trump administration imposes a 25% tariff, raising the price to consumers to $125. If we just keep importing that good from China, consumers lose $25 per unit purchased – but the government raises an extra $25 in taxes, leaving overall national income unchanged.

Suppose, however, that importers shift to a more expensive source that isn’t subject to the tariff; suppose, for example, that they can buy the good from Vietnam for $115. Then consumers only lose $15 – but there is no tariff revenue, so that $15 is a loss for the nation as a whole.

But what if they turn to a domestic supplier – say, a U.S. company that will sell the product for $120. How does this change the story?

Here the crucial thing is that producing a good domestically has an opportunity cost. The U.S. is near full employment, so the $120 in resources used to produce that good could and would have been employed producing something else in the absence of the tariff. Diverting them into producing what we used to import means a net loss of $20, with no revenue offset.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #6 - 03/04/19 at 16:18:10
 
T And T Garage wrote on 03/04/19 at 15:28:33:
What exactly are you disputing, the numbers or the guy who reported them?


Same answer if you ask was Jim Jordon attacking Cohen's character, or disputing the facts?
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #7 - 03/05/19 at 04:38:37
 
What exactly are you disputing, the numbers or the guy who reported them?

Because the numbers are facts.  Your opinion of Kruger doesn't enter into it or change them.


There's a reason why economics is not a science in the sense of chemistry or physics for example. There are too many variables and  one of those variables, people, make different decisions faced with the exact same circumstances. Economics becomes fodder for political spin.

Face it, you might have read the Krugman article, but you didn't read the report so you have no idea what it really says now do you? No, you don't. You read what a liberal, Democratic columnist wrote who loathes Donald Trump and yet you believe it as if it's Gospel. And this is why we are where we are.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #8 - 03/05/19 at 04:46:24
 
verslagen1 wrote on 03/04/19 at 16:11:31:
Given, any tax is passed onto the consumer.  But tariffs are meant to equalize the cost of imported goods to domestic and he proves it so what is his point?  The rest is pure conjecture.
And where are you grammar natzies?
And I don't get how producing something domestically does harm?  Let's layoff all those minorities that just found jobs. Pure BS.

Quote:
Consider the following example: pre-tariff, the U.S. imports some good from China that costs $100. Then the Trump administration imposes a 25% tariff, raising the price to consumers to $125. If we just keep importing that good from China, consumers lose $25 per unit purchased – but the government raises an extra $25 in taxes, leaving overall national income unchanged.

Suppose, however, that importers shift to a more expensive source that isn’t subject to the tariff; suppose, for example, that they can buy the good from Vietnam for $115. Then consumers only lose $15 – but there is no tariff revenue, so that $15 is a loss for the nation as a whole.

But what if they turn to a domestic supplier – say, a U.S. company that will sell the product for $120. How does this change the story?

Here the crucial thing is that producing a good domestically has an opportunity cost. The U.S. is near full employment, so the $120 in resources used to produce that good could and would have been employed producing something else in the absence of the tariff. Diverting them into producing what we used to import means a net loss of $20, with no revenue offset.


Here's the problem Vers; in your example, you list a couple of possibilities, but certainly not all the possibilities. And tracking the positive and negative ramifications from an importer switching suppliers from a foreign one or perhaps sourcing a domestic one is difficult. I mentioned before economics is not an exact science for a lot of reasons and how different importers address changes in the marketplace is one reason for that.  

From 40,000 feet, the economy is doing great. If the tariff has a negative impact, it seems to be tiny. What's not being discussed is its slow negative impact on China. That's good for the US. So perhaps you could say we are in a good position to take on China even if it harms us, apparently a tiny, tiny .01%.

But a good topic to discuss. I have to head out but worth exploring more.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #9 - 03/05/19 at 07:18:06
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/05/19 at 04:38:37:
What exactly are you disputing, the numbers or the guy who reported them?

Because the numbers are facts.  Your opinion of Kruger doesn't enter into it or change them.


There's a reason why economics is not a science in the sense of chemistry or physics for example. There are too many variables and  one of those variables, people, make different decisions faced with the exact same circumstances. Economics becomes fodder for political spin.

Face it, you might have read the Krugman article, but you didn't read the report so you have no idea what it really says now do you? No, you don't. You read what a liberal, Democratic columnist wrote who loathes Donald Trump and yet you believe it as if it's Gospel. And this is why we are where we are.


My, my, my you like to assume, don't you?

When something doesn't fit your narrative you impose your will upon it.

I DID read the paper - here you go, you should too:
http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/papers/CEPR-DP13564.pdf

The fact is mark - these numbers are facts.

Now, you face it mark - your boy trump is in way over his head.  His "great business skills" are bankrupting farmers, increasing costs, driving up inflation and putting more burden on the middle class.  Oh, but he did give that great big tax breaks to the 1% - so there's that... smh.

It's funny - you tout your salesman prowess, yet don't seem to grasp the fundamental fact of how these tariffs are doing more harm than good.
 Well, then again, you continue to support trump, so....
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #10 - 03/05/19 at 11:30:56
 
You did not read that report.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #11 - 03/05/19 at 12:15:27
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/05/19 at 11:30:56:
You did not read that report.


LOL what is it with you and assumptions?  Are you omnipotent???

Yes, I did.

Did you?
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #12 - 03/05/19 at 12:42:15
 
No.
And neither did you.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #13 - 03/05/19 at 12:55:30
 
WebsterMark wrote on 03/05/19 at 12:42:15:
No.
And neither did you.


You didn't read it, yet you make assumptions?

Boy oh boy mark - didn't anyone ever tell you what happens when you ASSume?

Well, I guess I can't expect much from a fervent trump supporter.  I should know better.  Oh well, I tried.

Tell you what - read it and get back to me.

Or don't.  It makes no difference to me.  I'm not the one making accusations.
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Re: Tariffs: The Data is In
Reply #14 - 03/05/19 at 14:55:14
 
The fact you never read it before you made your post is more solid a truth than anything Krugman said about the article. Now, you may have read it since, but you hadn’t before. You and I both know that to be true.

Are the figures in the article facts? I don’t know and neither do you. I instantly suspect them because Krugman like you, has a severe case of TDS.

My guess is when I get home later this week, I could find another set of facts that don’t support this set of facts. Again, economics is less a science and more statistics manipulated as spin.
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