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Puerto Rico storm studt (Read 72 times)
WebsterMark
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Puerto Rico storm studt
09/15/18 at 04:31:06
 
So I'm reading up on the study done that shows a few thousand died rather than 64. What's being reported in only a few places (surprise, surprise) is the study specifically included deaths long after the storm due to the damaged infrastructure and energy systems. From what I can find so far, the immediate death toll during the storm is not really disputed. What is disputed is deaths in the weeks, months afterward.

My problem is university researchers from most social science fields of study overwhelmingly lean liberal. That's not debatable. Now add in the TDS factor and it seems you have a recipe for over estimating.

Put it another way for those of you infected with TDS,  if FOX news had published a study showing thousands of deaths attributed to Hurricane Sandy, what would have been your response?
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #1 - 09/15/18 at 05:43:30
 
 If they used the term "aftermath" or "attributed" then I would consider deaths caused in the immediate aftermath or attributed in some way, such as a hospital not having power, as part of the death toll.

 If the term aftermath or attributed is not used then I would not consider deaths that happened in the immediate aftermath or attributed sub-storm in the estimated total.

 I don't use FOX news, or any news outlet for reliable information in these matters.  I would use FEMA, CDC, Puerto Rico HaHS and other official sources.  Funeral home activity is a good indicator in these events as well since a lot of people won't appear in public records.
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« Last Edit: 09/15/18 at 10:12:29 by Eegore »  
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Serowbot
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OK.... so what's the
speed of dark?

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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #2 - 09/15/18 at 07:05:58
 
The 64 deaths during the storm probably weren't preventable...
The thousands afterward,...
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Ludicrous Speed !... ... Huh...
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oldNslow
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #3 - 09/15/18 at 14:13:36
 
Serowbot wrote on 09/15/18 at 07:05:58:
The 64 deaths during the storm probably weren't preventable...
The thousands afterward,...


Maybe. If the storm had hit Miami, Daytona Beach, or, if you want to toss an island in there, Hawaii. But this storm hit Puerto Rico.

Quite often natural catastrophes in third world, Latin American countries produce staggering numbers of deaths, property damage, and infrastructure devastation far greater that the immediate effects of the event. And the repairs take years, if they are accomplished at all. Despite the fact that PR is a US territory, and the people are legally US citizens, it is still essentially a third world Latin American country with the culture of government corruption and incompetence that that implies. I don't understand why the mess down there surprises anyone.


i really don't blame Trump for taking exception to the implication that all those dead folks - if in fact the number is accurate - are somehow dead because of HIS incompetence.

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justin_o_guy2
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What happened?

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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #4 - 09/15/18 at 15:37:39
 
The woman running that place hates Trump.
Water still waiting to be distributed.

Would she choose to not do her best with the resources at hand in order to be able to blame Trump?

Are the numbers even accurate?
I doubt it.
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The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion.- Edmund Burke.
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #5 - 09/15/18 at 16:41:03
 

 I don't think "the woman running that place" has enough leverage there to stop aid from being distributed in large numbers.

 Almost all of the procurement, transport and distribution is contracted and audited.  The stuff I sent over is tracked extensively, and while we aren't in direct control of it anymore, I do know where it is and if it ends up being stored or destroyed.

 I think its easy to say she would kill thousands of her own citizens in order to make people upset with President Trump from the goold ol' USA, but waterlogged dead babies being carried to your place of work is hard to describe unless you see and smell it for yourself.  

 Trump isn't important enough to kill children is pretty much the vibe I got, but I could be wrong.

 I have no data or references, this post reflects my observations and personal activities in Puerto Rico that when compiled into this post reflects my opinion.
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justin_o_guy2
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #6 - 09/15/18 at 17:31:20
 
I don't trust the numbers.

I didn't say she intentionally killed anyone.

I don't have a problem believing she drag her feet where she could in order to lay blame on Orange One.
As if the response was all on him.

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The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion.- Edmund Burke.
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #7 - 09/15/18 at 21:08:22
 

 I haven't seen any officials from Puerto Rico that have said it is entirely Trump's fault.  Not that it matters because no matter what they say, and what the news reports, only the people on the ground doing something are actually credible sources.

 All I know of is complaining, from both sides about each other, but nothing about results being any one person's fault.  I find it hard to imagine given the circumstances there that 64 people was the maximum death toll for the actual storm, and the aftermath.

 I do know when I see resource requests for over 1200 coffins I believe there may be a need for up to an estimated 1200 dead humans.  This is not from FEMA, P.R. officials or any news source, this is from people who live there and work in sanitation and safety.  A lot of dead people is a safety concern.  

 I have no data or references, this post reflects my observations and personal activities in Puerto Rico that when compiled into this post reflects my opinion.
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WebsterMark
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #8 - 09/16/18 at 05:52:51
 
The implication is its Trump's fault, just like the implication that Katrina deaths were Bush's fault despite the fact that local crooked politicians played with infrastructure money for years.

I'd like to see the same after storm death study done on Hurricane Sandy.

I read the news today about this Hurricane. Included in the current death toll of 16 is an 85 year old who fell and hit his head while packing to evacuate.

If you're evaluating statistics from an emergency preparedness point of view for future situations, is that a valid storm related death? The woman and baby killed when the tree fell on their house? Sure, that's a direct storm related death and warnings against old trees close to homes makes sense to publish. But do we include this death so that we can publish recommendations that older people should have a bug out bag prepared well in advance so the don't fall and hit their head while packing while the storm is approaching? What if they fall on a quiet day while packing up? Would we "hold" that death and include it in the next storm?
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #9 - 09/16/18 at 09:38:37
 

"What if they fall on a quiet day while packing up? Would we "hold" that death and include it in the next storm?"


 No.  Accidents within a specific timeframe are acceptable, if related to specific criteria.  Also comparing averaged data.

 For instance if funeral homes on average have 10 clients a day and for 2 weeks after a storm hits land they average 30 a day then it would be feasible to consider the storm a contributing factor to a higher death toll since funeral homes do not deal in living clients.  

 In Puerto Rico where exactly did all those dead bodies in that short time frame come from?
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WebsterMark
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #10 - 09/16/18 at 13:32:46
 
If that's where their info came from, I would say that's a valid point. I'm not sure that's all. If it were, that would be relatively simple to calculate. Why all these studies and why such dramatically differnumbers.
That's one point, second, should be easy to do that for Sandy as well.
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #11 - 09/16/18 at 14:55:21
 
 It isn't easy as the parameters are not universal.

 Not everyone is registered, not everyone that is unaccounted for is missing or dead.  If we had an absolutely accurate count before the event then the calculations would be simpler, but the pre-event numbers are inaccurate.  Aid work is not easy, especially in post-event locations with less infrastructure and essentially no command structure.  

 I feel more studies were done in Puerto Rico because total death toll count was stated as 64 initially.  That's incredibly low considering the location and damage, and more than 64 families have had to go to funeral homes, with remains in their possession.  

 I have no data or references, this represents my personal observations while working with people and providing aid in disaster areas, when compiled and posted represents my opinion.
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #12 - 09/17/18 at 06:17:19
 
I think everyone has missed the point.

trump is the one touting success after those numbers came out.

He's the one saying it's a lie.  I've only seen people throwing this up in his face AFTER he tweeted his "success"

Once again, all he had to do is shut his little butthole mouth and move on.

Nope, he's just not that smart (obviously).
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WebsterMark
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #13 - 09/17/18 at 06:37:51
 
I feel more studies were done in Puerto Rico because total death toll count was stated as 64 initially

I feel the studies were done because it was an opportunity to attack Trump yet again. He and the officials in PR had a running feud which made it a juicy target.

Bottom line, if that's how we're gonna count storm deaths going forward, fine. I don't care.

Just don't start counting them differently now solely because its an opportunity for more Trump bashing, which is what I think primarily motivated these studies.
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Eegore
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Re: Puerto Rico storm studt
Reply #14 - 09/17/18 at 07:13:30
 
 I could see some of the studies being used that way, however I feel that ones counting bodies for burial reasons, in Puerto Rico for Puerto Rican use are most likely being done for that reason.  Putting a loved one's body in the ground is pretty important, and typically less important than any President anywhere.

 Lets say that 64 total deaths are attributed to the storm, and it's aftermath.  If this is accurate then wouldn't it be prudent to conduct a comprehensive study as to how such a success happened, and how to implement that strategy into future response efforts?

 The first step to creating such a strategy would be verifying the numbers.  So even Trump supporters would want to conduct this specific study event to provide an accurate numerical outcome goal.  
 
How mainstream media, or anyone else uses the information is more of the variable in my eyes.  

 I have no data or references, this represents my personal observations while working with people and providing aid in disaster areas, when compiled and posted represents my opinion.
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