During the run up to the 2016 election, I predicted a Trump victory chiefly on the basis of three pieces of anecdotal evidence I witnessed while traveling. I've mentioned them before but basically in two cases, people who would normally be opposed to Trump or had very little interest in politics, turned into vocal Trump proponents.

In once case, a plant engineer and his unionized maintenance staff of over 60 were all very vocal Trump supporters as was a young kid I saw parking cars in a rental car lot. Along with the quiet anger I saw at our little town's 4th of July parade towards an anti-Trump float (staffed by the type of fools we saw protesting at the recent Supreme Court hearings) convinced me there was a silent majority that was going to make a difference. These three events were in three different states and all three states went for Trump. One of those states was one of the five surprise states that gave Trump the victory.

I'm in Central PA this week and both Monday and Tuesday nights I heard very vocal Trump support in the hotel bars. Now, I'm not predicting a Republican victory in the mid-terms based on that. Just not enough evidence and traveling sales and engineers are almost always Republicans so its not that surprising. What's surprising is the loud, unashamed and even daring vocal support. That's unusual. But still, that's not enough for me to go all the way out on a limb, but I am predicting a much closer outcome than the MSM is leading everyone to believe. I do not see the possibility of a Blue Wave.

My personal group is what it is.  We are like-minded.  I know that.  That's why I don't spend all my time with them.

What I have been witnessing in the larger picture - outside my personal group - is that of irritability.  The people that I knew that voted for trump (and I was shocked to see ow many in my geographic area did) are now the same people who have grown tired of him.  Kinda like a hangover they realized that they may have made a mistake. (I should point out too that I was also very shocked to find out how few voted in the primary).

They love "his policies", but have grown tired of the constant barrage of trump news.  More than one has said that he'll probably be impeached.  That would be fine with them because then they get pence.

On the dem side, it's almost the same thing.  They've had enough of the establishment libs.  I've seen many a hillary lover start down the path of the Ocasio-Cortez type democrat.  It's a sea change for sure.  One that is going to test the democrats and repubs.

There might not be a "blue wave" as some have predicted this November (me included).  But the game is changing for the better.  Dems are now finally holding their reps accountable.  The things they really want (in line with what the country overall wants) are now being pushed to the top instead of being kept at bay (Medicare for all, higher taxes on the 1%, federal gun law changes, true middle class tax breaks, etc.)

Suffice it to say, the dems will probably take the House.  If trump keeps up his tweeting and Mueller probes a little deeper, they might have chance at the Senate too.  But even if those two things don't happen, one thing is for sure.(IMHO)  The voter turnout for these midterms will be larger than in the past.

They love "his policies", but have grown tired of the constant barrage of trump news.  More than one has said that he'll probably be impeached.  That would be fine with them because then they get pence.

I’ve not heard a single person prefer Pence. Not one. Pence is nothing. He’d get steamrolled by Democrats.

WebsterMark wrote on 09/12/18 at 08:32:12:


It's not about preference.  It's about the noise.  Republicans are sick of the noise (at least the ones I know).  They don't see trump as viable in 2020.  Even with the economy where it is, that's not enough.  pence will continue on the same path as trump - signatory on the establishment republican wish list.

Now, of course, the diehards will never leave trump.  But that's not enough to carry him.  He's losing support among the rust belt and the farm belt.  Those once fervent supporters are now not as sure.  He's at 40% approval (Pew polling)

Many initially voted more against hillary than for trump.  That won't continue given the light that's been on trump and his antics.

I think what we're going to see in the midterms is not so much a vote for a democrat, but a vote against trump.

Of course, this is only my opinion.  The future remains to be seen.

The Democrats will need a new candidate other than Mrs. Clinton if they want to win the 2020 election.

Yes, but probably not to win the next election if his opponent is Clinton.

faffi wrote on 09/12/18 at 23:07:15:



hillary is out.  Done.  Irrelevant to the democratic party of today.  But I take it you're being sarcastic.

Biden?...
Warren?...