Quote: .most folks who want a Sportster or big V-Twin have already bought one (or are getting great deals on lightly used ones).
Exactly. I think that that's a big part of their problem right now. New HD's are too expensive compared to the really attractive prices of low mileage, excellent condition, used ones right now. HD is competing with itself in it's market niche. My Sportster is 13 years old, looks good, runs fine and hasn't given me a bit of trouble since I've owned it. I paid 3500 dollars for it a few years ago. Probably more than I should have, but it was a trade in that I bought from a dealer. Craigslist it full of bikes just like mine in the same price range or less. Compare that to the 10 thousand or so OTD price of a brand new version of essentially the exact same motorcycle and I think the problem is obvious.
I know quite a few guys that own Harleys. I don't know anyone who owns a NEW Harley.
I also think HD blew it badly when they introduced the Street models hoping to attract entry level riders to the brand. During the first couple of model years, those bikes got panned in the motorcycle press for some pretty significant issues, most notably really lousy brakes, and some fit and finish deficiencies. The Streets also had a fuel system recall that didn't help its reputation any. Those things have been rectified now, and the Street Rod version is a pretty nice bike IMO, but I think the damage is done.
The 2018 Softails with the new frame and the M8 engine are a step in the right direction, but again, they cost too much, and they aren't likely to attract many new riders into the fold.