http://liliputing.com/2014/07/npd-quarterly-tablet-shipments-decline-first-ti...



So, Microsoft and Intel have just about missed the juicy fat part of the phone and tablet sell in wave -- figures for 2014 will decline from those for 2013 with the only new expanding markets being in third world countries where Microsoft and Intel do not play very well at all.

"It’s also possible that tablets have reached the “good enough” stage, which means that a tablet you buy today is good enough that you don’t feel the need to replace it next year.

While folks in the US tend to replace their smartphones every 2 years or so, they tend to hold onto notebook or desktop computers for much longer.

If tablets are close to reaching a saturation point (everyone who wants one has one), and the existing models are good enough to hold onto indefinitely, we could start to see people replace them more like laptops than smartphones… which is good news for consumers (and the environment), but not great news for device makers — which explains why they’re already trying to come up with the next big thing in consumer electronics, which they seem to be hoping will be wearable devices including smartwatches.

For now, NPD has lowered their estimates for 2014 tablet shipments from 315 million to 285 million.

Earlier this year the analysts at IDC made a similar move, dropping their estimates from 354 million to about 260 million.

Of course the distinctions between tablets and other types of computers is kind of blurry these days, thanks to a new breed of 2-in-1 devices like the Asus Transformer Book and Lenovo Yoga families of devices which can function as notebooks or tablets."


There are some theories that the current generation's most modest quad core processor is more than adequate for any tablet use and that the next jump in lithography is going to be quite a bit more expensive for several more years at least to the point the "steady upgraders" who have been buying new stuff every other year may well skip a year this time since nothing really BETTER and affordable is going to be out there for them to upgrade up to.

Moore's Law is stuttering at the edge of the FinFet world and it looks like processor doubling will only occur now when a new lithography type comes into play.

The next big thing is going to be the Internet of Everything, which means smart clocks, thermostats, lamps, etc etc which will dance to your cell phone or watch's commands.

Microsoft missed it pretty much completely on the upswing this time, as did Intel (mostly).