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Message started by WebsterMark on 03/21/20 at 05:37:29

Title: Mole hills and mountains
Post by WebsterMark on 03/21/20 at 05:37:29

This is more than an article, it’s closer to being a small book and given the data, it takes a serious commitment to get thrust, BUT, my spider sense is telling me there is significant truth in here. I think the majority of us intuitively questioned the measures all the world’s governments are taking. It may take a long time to shake out and it will have to over come the “what’s wrong with taking an abundance of caution” card laid on the table right next to the “so you’re choosing the economy over people’s lives” card, but I think we’ll eventually see we took a mole hill and turned it into more than a mountain, we put Everest on everyone’s front lawn.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/21/20 at 05:55:57

IDK why the story about the cruise ship doesn't seem to be being used for understanding the problem.
This IS serious,, people do die..
And, something like 35,000 a year die in crashes.. and don't forget about the injured and crippled,, nobody freaks out..

Be cautious, but dangitt,, scared?

I'm not scared of the disease
I'm scared of idiots,
Scared people are dangerous.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by srinath on 03/21/20 at 06:11:43

That crap is all irrelevant when there's an election needing to be won.

Cool.
Srinath.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by WebsterMark on 03/21/20 at 07:39:54

I think with the whole thing said and done we’re going to be divided into a group that says “we did we had to do” and a group that says “we exaggerate it and let a runaway media dictate actions “

The net effect will be the next time there’s any kind of risk that is elevated to serious, the precedent is set for an enormous government involvement. It will be like Bush’s mistake of creating the department of homeland security which has morphed into a giant organization.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/21/20 at 08:37:17

Yeah, the people are seeing what powers others want...
Especially when
It's
For Your Own Good...

If you Don't let us keep you safe
We'll punish you...

Yeah,, actions have consequences
Elections come along..
And
Next time
The people will have had something to remember

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by MShipley on 03/26/20 at 13:36:54

I don't think my life is worth my Grand children having to live in Socialist poverty.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/26/20 at 13:50:52

"I don't think my life is worth my Grand children having to live in Socialist poverty."

You just need to get 51% of the voting population to prefer death over stimulus packages and staying home for a while.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/26/20 at 17:22:18

83% on the cruise ship
Didn't get it
Of 17% who did
8%
Had no symptoms

So, 8% did..
They didn't all die.
It's NOT as bad as you seem ready to tell.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/26/20 at 20:00:19

"83% on the cruise ship
Didn't get it
Of 17% who did
8%
Had no symptoms

So, 8% did..
They didn't all die.
It's NOT as bad as you seem ready to tell."

Before we even get into this conversation are you wanting to only use cruise ship data and not data from the rest of the world?

You have a history of cherry-picking the data you want to accept and use as reference, so can information from Colorado be used here, or are you going to say the cruise ship is a direct analogue to the entire globe?

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/26/20 at 20:48:19

Hard data, not massaged, sure..
I don't care where it comes from.
But remember
That ship had people sick, mixing with others, the same crowd, over and over..
And the facts are what they are..
So, tell your story

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/26/20 at 21:34:51

"Massaged data" leaves the door wide open to say I like this one, but not that one, but whatever you also said 27 professionals working on over 100 thousand human ears were all wrong because you pressed on your wife's ear.

Also we don't have a definition of "bad". As in your definition of "bad" may be different than mine, so I am going to go with the breakdown that this is not the flu, and is spreading more rapidly with a higher percentage Case Fatality rate than the Standard Flu, and that the R0 rate is indicative of a healthcare issue that exceeds current medical resource and supply in the US.

This is a very simple breakdown with charts and references:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

A second source with near identical results:

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

A more complex but more thorough breakdown of the metrics I use:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Well known and accepted information on the "Standard Flu"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/symptoms.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

My definition of Case Fatality Death is the number of cumulative deaths divided by the number of cumulative cases at a specific point in time.

Given the numbers presented in all three references above we can estimate that approximately 22,030 deaths were reported worldwide with 1,046 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 26, 2020. This includes the cruise ship.

With R0 for standard flu being about 1.3, SARS-CoV-2 is estimated , at this time, to be averaged at 2.5 worldwide. This is more than double the rate of the flu. Comparing the metrics from the 5 references above it doesn't take a genius to calculate that SARS-CoV-2 has a Case Fatality rate 9 to 10 times higher than standard flu. This includes the cruise ship.

This does not mean an end to man.

However humans infected utilize a considerably longer medical center stay in specialized (ICU and similar) care with specialized equipment like ventilators. This does mean that medical centers can not treat US citizens at a rate that is equal to or greater (faster than) the rate of infection. So with the lack of a vaccine, the doubled R0, and the multiplied fatality rate this virus exceeds the means we have to conduct traditional treatment.

Given that we know that SARS-CoV-2 will exceed the volume of care, I feel alternate measures should be taken to reduce impact on the medical care aspect, such as promoting proper hygiene practices and yes social distancing. Reducing the number of people interacting within droplet contamination potential reduces infection rate, that reduces medical need, that reduces Case Fatality rate.

So I consider SARS-CoV-2 to be "bad" because it has proven in multiple locations to overwhelm the specialized care availability and the US has presented zero evidence that there is currently adequate equipment and staffing to exceed the current infection rate.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/26/20 at 21:58:51

Massaged data" leaves the door wide open to say I like this one, but not that one, but whatever you also said 27 professionals working on over 100 thousand human ears were all wrong because you pressed on your wife's ear.

Bullshit
Those were different ears.
CARTILAGE doesn't grow in different places in a few hours after death..

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/27/20 at 03:52:02

"Bullshit
Those were different ears.
CARTILAGE doesn't grow in different places in a few hours after death.."

Ok all those experts are wrong, your evidence is your wife's ear.

Are all the SARS-CoV-2 experts wrong too because the isolated cruise ship numbers differ slightly from the rest of the world? Is the US medical system actually just fine? Are all of the metrics I provided incorrect?

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/27/20 at 19:05:05

I just don't want the stats to get lost.
I'm no epidemiological genius.
I know about cartilage.
Those were different ears.
As for
What has happened
What Will happen..
I see conflicting predictions.
Some are selling fear
Ohhh, Trump failed..
Some are saying
It's gonna blow over soon..

IDK how it's gonna go.
If the chloroquine whatever is made available, supplies good, things might cool out pretty soon
But, unemployment is gonna be BAD,, lots of businesses are gonna go bust, and
Stimulus for
Regular folks
Ain't likely..
Two TRILLION dollars..
And The everyday person gets about
$1,200

Doing the math, just guessing ish,, yeah, probably Otta be ten times that..
But, special interests
The BIGGEST DEAL EVER
And no record of who voted for
And against..
Bullshit

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/27/20 at 19:43:37

"I see conflicting predictions."

We all do, but do we prioritize predictions from internet analysts sitting at home that never even heard the word epidemiology until last week, or from 27 of the planets biological research foundations?

I'm willing to go with international consensus and data from people working with dead bodies, not ideas from people sitting safe at home.

"Some are selling fear
Ohhh, Trump failed..
Some are saying
It's gonna blow over soon.."

Agreed. I'm not interested in the fear mongering, I'm interested in public safety. I recommend courses of action based off of data, pretty much what I have posted here along with some metadata metrics I am not allowed to post.

This idea that people congregating won't increase the need for medical care is complete nonsense. Like MnSpring saying people with non-critical care issues like "papercuts" are causing a hospital care shortage, that's complete nonsense, no medical center could maintain its operating licenses if they hooked ventilators to patients that were there for lacerations.

"If the chloroquine whatever is made available, supplies good, things might cool out pretty soon"

Chloroquine hasn't had much success but the studies are limited. Given the side-effects I wouldn't think a mass-dosage would be recommended anytime soon but I could be wrong on that.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/therapeutic-options.html

In any case I think calling this nothing more than a bad flu is very inaccurate. Saying we wont be like Europe because we don't greet by kissing cheeks is very inaccurate. I'm not pro-killing businesses, or losing jobs, I am paying my employees full wages but I am lucky I can do that. If I qualified for the stimulus check(s) I'd give them away.

Unfortunately my desire to keep local businesses in operation won't save lives. If I saw any conclusive evidence that the US medical system could keep SARS-CoV-2 patients alive I would be arguing against Polis in CO. But the data speaks otherwise, the metadata infers otherwise, so instead I am helping implement the medical equipment accreditation efficiency process because I know that will save lives.

"And no record of who voted for
And against.."

Do you mean to say the voice count is not a record?

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by eau de sauvage on 03/27/20 at 21:08:17

@eegore,

In any case I think calling this nothing more than a bad flu is very inaccurate.

Well it's accurate in the sense that it accurately parrots what Trump said.

Trump's clinical narcissism means he's addicted to praise, he needs his hit daily. When the stock market goes up because he said something he'll point to that immediately, when it goes down he says nothing, any bit of good news and he's at it again. He just needs continual praise.

So if saying it's just a bad flu and nothing to worry about then the stock market stays up for a few more days. Just like an addict, their life revolves around their next hit, as soon as they get it it all begins again.

It's pretty entertaining. As long as you are not American.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/27/20 at 21:21:54

you mean to say the voice count is not a record?

What I heard today is exactly what I said.
Nobody knows exactly who voted for and against..
Is that true?
Dammifino..
Doesn't seem possible
But
Washington....

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/28/20 at 04:13:13

I heard it was unanimous. The Senate was 96-0, and the House was a unanimous voice vote unless I am mistaken.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/28/20 at 04:21:20

Well, when the People are provided a written statement showing who voted and how they voted, and it should be in every newspaper, considering the massive importance, then I'll believe there is a record.
Until it's online or something, I'm gonna wonder about it.
Trump was WRONG to criticize the guy who was trying to make them do things constitutionally..

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/28/20 at 04:37:19

I'm not sure there was a violation of the Constitution since "a vote without a quorum" does not specify physical humans within the room. What Massie asked for was everyone to be in the room essentially.

So the issue isn't the number of votes, its the number present.

This makes sense if we are in 1778 and no audio recordings exist, but given the existence of modern technology I am not so sure we need paper records and witnesses. Audio records of Representatives saying "Yes" is, to me, adequate, video even more so.

I don't see a reason to burn more tax money getting all these people in a room if we have empirical evidence of how they stand on the issue.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/28/20 at 04:44:32

He demanded a quorum
He got a it
That doesn't tell us who was there.
And
Burning taxpayers money is what happened.

You seen summa the organisations getting millions?
Talk about some Bullshit..

I'm not satisfied it was done ethically, at all.
When deciding on
Voice vote
Pelosi counts those who stand for the
Push your button and record your vote
Vote..
Then ,regardless of how many stand,
It's a voice vote and WE don't know who did what.

I hope I'm wrong and the voters get to see who voted and how.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/28/20 at 04:49:48

I just think we need to update procedures.

Telling Representatives they have to congregate during a pandemic is flat out irresponsible if there are alternate methods.

I don't agree with all the aspects of the stimulus, but at this time I don't have a team to go through all 800 pages and review it, so anything I've seen on it, to me, is pure conjecture and not fact.

Video Representation I think should be looked at in the future.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by WebsterMark on 03/28/20 at 06:17:01

No way I want Congress to go video. It will turn Congress into even more of a Twitter like environment than it already is. Gotta show up in person to vote for everything. If you get sick and die, too darn bad, You wanted the job, you got it.

Highly unlikely this virus was man-made as an intended weapon anyway. Why would you make a corona virus? Why not engineer a measles virus, MeV? Far more contagious. This mutation of a common virus type, corona, that gained a foothold in animals and made the jump to humans like many virus strains do.

Title: Re: Mole hills and mountains
Post by Eegore on 03/28/20 at 14:14:53

"Gotta show up in person to vote for everything. If you get sick and die, too darn bad, You wanted the job, you got it."

My concern is who they will spread the disease to when they leave. Or we have to go even less efficient and keep them in quarantine status for 14-18 days.

I'm not sure how a recording of "Yes" or "No" could become a Twitter event, but I think that a series of controls, just like the rules that already exist for speaking in State, could be put into place. It's not a free-for all now, allowing video in crisis won't make it one.

"Why not engineer a measles virus, MeV? Far more contagious"

I agree.