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Message started by eau de sauvage on 01/09/19 at 02:00:39

Title: That speech!
Post by eau de sauvage on 01/09/19 at 02:00:39
You know the one. Pretty weird stuff, summed up well here...

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18174773/trump-speech-fact-check-immigration

The most memorable portion of the address came when the president listed off a series of gruesome crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. He went into graphic detail, discussing the use of a hammer on one victim and the dismemberment of another. This, he argued, is why America needs a border wall: Undocumented immigrants are dangerous, and their entry must be blocked at all costs.

Except this is false. The data shows that undocumented immigrants are actually considerably less likely to commit crimes; states with more undocumented immigrants actually tend to have lower crime rates.

So the most striking part of the whole presentation was a lie, a recitation of anecdotes designed to mislead Americans about immigration and gin up anti-immigrant sentiment to score political points.

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by T And T Garage on 01/09/19 at 06:01:25
It was truly tough to watch.

I almost feel bad for him.  The more I think about it, the more I can tell that he's just not that smart.  You can tell that when he was reading off the teleprompter that he didn't really know the speech.  It was like a kid in school reading aloud from a book he just picked up.  This is our president... how can anyone not see this?

The article calls him "dynamic" when speaking off the cuff.  I suppose you can say that, but mostly it's just bravado - unfunded bravado.  He's like that guy everyone knows that talks a great game, but when it comes down to it, knows next to nothing about what he's talking about.

This all is (sadly) second to the actual content of what he read.

There is no "crisis".  Just another conservative manufactured fear tactic.  

What it really comes down to is that this is nothing but an ego stroke to a thin-skinned man child.

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by verslagen1 on 01/09/19 at 07:28:43
Every day I hear of a hit and run with only about 8% being solved by lapd.
That's a pretty sad stat.

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by WebsterMark on 01/09/19 at 08:31:47
The most memorable portion of the address came when the president listed off a series of gruesome crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. He went into graphic detail, discussing the use of a hammer on one victim and the dismemberment of another. This, he argued, is why America needs a border wall: Undocumented immigrants are dangerous, and their entry must be blocked at all costs.

Except this is false. The data shows that undocumented immigrants are actually considerably less likely to commit crimes; states with more undocumented immigrants actually tend to have lower crime rates.

So you're calling truthful statements lies? Were those people murdered, yes or no?

Secondly, what data shows illegal aliens are less likely to commit crimes? This sounds like the "97% of scientist agree" or the "10% of the population is gay" claims. Both repeatedly proven false but the figures stick because they're repeated so often.

With California as a sanctuary state for example, how could anyone accurately calculate that figure? Is there a reliable method to determine if illegals commit crimes at a higher rate than the general population? Not sure. And does that matter? It is a fact people have been killed, robbed, raped, property crimes etc by someone who shouldn't even be in the country.

Let's view this as we would a work issue. Let's imagine I have two sets of problems, both related, but the root cause is separate. We'll call them problem 1 and problem 2. I can address problem 1 by making a procedural change. It might not be a 100% solution, but it will at least minimize the negative consequences of problem 1. Problem 2 is more complicated and is an ongoing issue.

Are you suggesting I not implement the procedural change to begin minimizing Problem 1 because I can't easily solve problem 2?

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by eau de sauvage on 01/10/19 at 14:21:31

0B393E2F28392E113D2E375C0 wrote:
So you're calling truthful statements lies?
Secondly, what data shows illegal aliens are less likely to commit crimes?



1. The 'lie' is the pretence of the 'emergency'

2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/19/two-charts-demolish-the-notion-that-immigrants-here-illegally-commit-more-crime/ & https://www.vox.com/2019/1/8/18174669/trump-speech-immigration-fact-check-border

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by LostArtist on 01/10/19 at 15:45:12

053730212637201F332039520 wrote:
The most memorable portion of the address came when the president listed off a series of gruesome crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. He went into graphic detail, discussing the use of a hammer on one victim and the dismemberment of another. This, he argued, is why America needs a border wall: Undocumented immigrants are dangerous, and their entry must be blocked at all costs.

Except this is false. The data shows that undocumented immigrants are actually considerably less likely to commit crimes; states with more undocumented immigrants actually tend to have lower crime rates.

So you're calling truthful statements lies? Were those people murdered, yes or no?

Secondly, what data shows illegal aliens are less likely to commit crimes? This sounds like the "97% of scientist agree" or the "10% of the population is gay" claims. Both repeatedly proven false but the figures stick because they're repeated so often.

With California as a sanctuary state for example, how could anyone accurately calculate that figure? Is there a reliable method to determine if illegals commit crimes at a higher rate than the general population? Not sure. And does that matter? It is a fact people have been killed, robbed, raped, property crimes etc by someone who shouldn't even be in the country.

Let's view this as we would a work issue. Let's imagine I have two sets of problems, both related, but the root cause is separate. We'll call them problem 1 and problem 2. I can address problem 1 by making a procedural change. It might not be a 100% solution, but it will at least minimize the negative consequences of problem 1. Problem 2 is more complicated and is an ongoing issue.

Are you suggesting I not implement the procedural change to begin minimizing Problem 1 because I can't easily solve problem 2?



you're fear mongering and it won't solve any problems.  

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by LostArtist on 01/10/19 at 15:57:25
https://www.wsj.com/articles/illegal-immigration-is-stable-11546996293

this breaks it all down, your fears are BASELESS

"CRIME CONCLUSIONS: The National Academy of Sciences examined numerous academic studies on crime rates by immigrants and concluded they are less likely than the native born population to commit crimes. It also concluded that neighborhoods with greater concentrations of immigrants have lower rates of crime and violence than comparable nonimmigrant neighborhoods. The study didn’t examine crime rates specifically among undocumented immigrants. Overall, crime rates fell in the U.S. as the size of the unauthorized immigrant population rose int the past two decades."

so where's this "Crisis" ?

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by Eegore on 01/10/19 at 16:14:33
"CRIME CONCLUSIONS: The National Academy of Sciences examined numerous academic studies on crime rates by immigrants and concluded they are less likely than the native born population to commit crimes. It also concluded that neighborhoods with greater concentrations of immigrants have lower rates of crime and violence than comparable nonimmigrant neighborhoods. The study didn’t examine crime rates specifically among undocumented immigrants. Overall, crime rates fell in the U.S. as the size of the unauthorized immigrant population rose int the past two decades."

 Simple.  They are wrong because a source I like better says something different.  Give me a few minutes on Google and I will find resources refuting this information.  The resources I provide won't have the same amount of verifiable data, besides the data in the NAS is conspiracy, or fake news because those numbers don't correlate with my observed reality.

Title: Re: That speech!
Post by Trippah on 01/11/19 at 07:03:56
The crisis is, that if we get an increased percentage of our population as law abiding" illegals", a major portion of the Republican base will become less needed and might start losing jobs (or in the case of privatized prison, they wont get their 95% occupancy and start losing income).  Think of how many police, judges, prison staff there are in this country. ;D

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