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/cgi-bin/YaBB.pl General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> For those looking to surf a Blue Wave /cgi-bin/YaBB.pl?num=1537362048 Message started by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 06:00:48 |
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Title: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 06:00:48 Better read and understand this. I see and hear the same thing. I am one of these deplorables. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/what-ohios-deplorables-really-want/ |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 06:03:31 536166777061764965766F040 wrote:
"In an unscientific survey of flyover country, our correspondent learned why voters are so willing to forgive Trump." Basically, an opinion piece. That doesn't change the facts, the polls or trump's approval numbers. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 06:13:29 Of course, nothing is certain. However, there is some compelling evidence that the republicans are in grave danger in the House and at the local level. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/take-the-house-midterm-elections-2018-democrats-republicans-flip-senate-trump-a8544016.html http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/10/polls-broken-blind-spots--blue-wave-hopes-swell Just like I've been saying - people won't necessarily be voting for a democrat as much as they're voting against trump. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 06:22:24 Basically, an opinion piece. That doesn't change the facts, the polls or trump's approval numbers. Of course it's an opinion piece. No one is disputing that. The facts....... the facts are the polls and approval numbers during the 2016 election were dead wrong. I wouldn't hang your hat on polls or approval ratings. I'd hang your hat on what most people think of the Kavanagh debacle for example. Not what I think, not what you think, not what CNN thinks and not what Fox thinks. What people who catch bits and pieces of the news think, which is the vast majority of the population. My guess is (and this is only an opinion, but an opinion that is usually correct politically) these people, these deplorables, don't hold Democrats in high regard. They are fully aware of Trump's failings (as mentioned in the article) and accept him for who he is. However, they correctly smell out lying politicians. The best way to describe it might be to say we accept Trump's lies because he's an 'honest liar'. We reject politician's lies because they are 'dishonest liars'. I'm sure you will say you don't understand that, but deep down, I think you know exactly what that means in the real world. Bottom line; hold off waxing that surfboard. Maybe you'll get to use it, maybe you won't but its not sure either way. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Eegore on 09/19/18 at 06:36:43 So if the polls were terribly inaccurate about Trump's approval ratings prior to the election what has changed to make them more accurate now? Polls = c rap information, they predicted he wouldn't win. Polls = fact. they show his approval ratings are X percentage points. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 07:00:39 huh? |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Eegore on 09/19/18 at 07:06:10 People reference todays polling as accurate, but also point out how inaccurate they were prior to the election. If I reference poor polling results pre-election it would not make sense for me to consider them accurate today unless there's been changes to account for the margin of error or procedural deficiencies. What changed that causes some people to use polls as accurate information today? |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 08:03:19 Unscience,... my favorite.... :-? |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 08:10:34 Ok, I see your point. Confirmation Bias. If something supports our viewpoint, we see it as valuable. If something doesn't support it, we ignore or attack it's credibility. All of us do this. Some more than others. I'm guilty, you're guilty, everyone is guilty of this. Every good salesman knows this instinctively. People (myself included) make most decisions emotionally and then trick ourselves into thinking we based our decision on facts. We look backwards and fool ourselves by selectively remembering 'facts' that support our decision. We 'forget' or tell ourselves we missed the facts that would have caused us to go a different direction. For a salesman, this gets you the first or possibly the second sale. However, unless your particular product or service performs 'in the heat of the moment' when the memory of that shinny new product is clouded out by the $hitstorm you're in the middle of, you'll find yourself lumped into the used car salesman category instead of a valuable partner. Once you're in that category, forget about getting out. You're going to have to find other customers or wait for that guy to leave the company if you're going to sell to them again. If however, your product or service performs when it really needs to, then you're in like flint. Confirmation Bias works in your favor then. Competitors have little chance of displacing you because their 'facts' are ignored. In the political world, confirmation bias manifest itself in somewhat blind allegiance to a party. Something drew us to the Republican or Democratic party and when almost anything is presented to us that could disrupt that allegiance, we use confirmation bias to handle that objection. Which is why confirmation bias is valuable. Otherwise, we'd be forced to flop back and forth, unable to settle on something. For proof, just watch as TT and I go back and forth ignoring facts that disrupt our position and highlighting only the ones that confirm our bias. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 08:20:40 655750414657407F534059320 wrote:
Like I said, nothing's guaranteed. But for sure, there will be a sea change. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 08:29:17 1B3B39312C3B5E0 wrote:
FWIW - For presidential approval ratings, I usually only go with Pew. They've been tracking it the longest and have a rock solid reputation as being non-partisan. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 09:33:42 FWIW - For presidential approval ratings, I usually only go with Pew. They've been tracking it the longest and have a rock solid reputation as being non-partisan. .....or because it confirms your bias. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 09:37:12 What would have happened if after the election, US intelligence had announced the results were tampered with by Russian hackers and Trump's win was not legitimate?... So would they?... :-? |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 09:46:41 093B3C2D2A3B2C133F2C355E0 wrote:
Not at all. That's just a coincidence. It's not like I'm referencing fox or cnn or msnbc or rasmussen. PEW's been around for a long time and they're trusted for good reason. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 10:29:46 2335223F27323F24500 wrote:
If it were shown Russian hackers got into individual counties and changed the vote total so that one candidate won majority of electoral votes, I would have been in favor of leaving Obama in office for 3 months and holding the election over in March with paper ballots. If it were proven one of the candidates participated in the hacking, I would have shot her, left Obama in office, have the parties go thru another nomination procedure, and hold the election in May or June. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 10:30:51 Not at all. That's just a coincidence. Ok........ |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 10:44:46 0F3D3A2B2C3D2A15392A33580 wrote:
;D ;D ;D Yup,.. that's where the evidence points all right... |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 11:16:59 You caught that... good one! There is no evidence anyone participated. There is no evidence it had any impact. The only evidence a campaign actually follwed through on colluding with foreigners is your girl Hilary. The Democrats attempts to get revenge for Bush/Gore isn't going to work out very well. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 12:28:17 063433222534231C30233A510 wrote:
I have no evidence, and you have no evidence... US intelligence may have evidence that they won't release for fear of riots or worse... How could such a thing possibly be remedied?... If they have it, it won't be released for years... maybe decades... |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by raydawg on 09/19/18 at 12:36:59 1107100D15000D16620 wrote:
This post is about GW? :-? |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 12:42:40 Denial of science isn't exclusive to Climate Change,.. it is exclusive to the Republican Party.... Welcome to the 6,000 year old flat Earth... ;D |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 12:49:31 4355425F47525F44300 wrote:
I have no evidence, and you have no evidence... US intelligence may have evidence that they won't release for fear of riots or worse... How could such a thing possibly be remedied?... If they have it, it won't be released for years... maybe decades...[/quote] Riots!? Seriously, whose gonna riot? oh yea, you would..... Come on man, you're so infected with TDS, you're thinking crazy 9/11 type Alex Jones conspiracy stuff! That round hole you're trying to squeeze that square peg into is getting o awfully small. Isn't the most likey explanation there is no real evidence? That Mueller is looking for anything he can to put in the final report to justify his efforts and maintain a legacy? That whatever did occur with the Russians was independent of any campaign and had no practical effect on the election outcomes? Doesn't that fit into our observations more clearly? Do you remember when Jog and I went round and round on why 9/11 conspiracy theories can't possibly be true? The complexity and number of people involved and the perfection that would have had to occur for success made the likelihood virtually impossible. So it is here. The government doesn't have proof of this and they aren't hiding it for fear of social unrest. You might as well start talking to me about secret military grade explosives used to bring the Towers down. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by Serowbot on 09/19/18 at 14:08:29 What do we know for sure?... Putin wanted Trump to win... He had hackers steal Hillary's e-mails and released them at the most impactful time to affect the election. They hacked the DNC... They probed several state election sites... and did gain access to at least one... Illinois... Electronic voting leaves no paper trail to check. Russians did have a huge disinformation campaign on Twitter, Instagram, and various other internet outlets. Trump Jr, Manafort, and Kushner did meet with Russian agents in the hopes of getting illegally hacked dirt on Hillary. Just hours after the meeting was arranged, Trump announced in a campaign speech that he would be discussing Hillary's e-mails in depth in a few days. Trump dictated a false account of Jr's activities at the meeting... for Jr to present to Congress... Two phone calls were made to blocked numbers by Jr the day of the meeting. Trump has blocked numbers. Congress could demand that the FBI trace those numbers but they won't. Ignorance is bliss... 6 members of Trump's staff have plead guilty to corruption charges (mostly linked to Russia)... 12 Russian agents have been indicted... These are not conspiracy theories,... they are facts... If you add them up, a picture develops... That's a lot of walking like a duck... If there is a "Trump derangement Syndrome", I think it's in the people that can overlook all that evidence and still support Trump. The only theory is the possibility that Russians were successful in one or more attempts to actually change votes. We can probably never know, because there is no paper trail... We do know, if they weren't... it wasn't for lack of trying.... |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 14:41:30 Putin wanted Trump to win... probably was his choice. He had hackers steal Hillary's e-mails and released them at the most impactful time to affect the election. maybe, you don't know. They hacked the DNC... Seems possible. They probed several state election sites... and did gain access to at least one... Illinois... Gained access, but did nothing. Electronic voting leaves no paper trail to check. They'd have to change a lot of votes. Hilary had a 900,000 vote advantage. Russians did have a huge disinformation campaign on Twitter, Instagram, and various other internet outlets. "Huge" is a Huge lie! There's been zero evidence they had any effect on a single vote. Trump Jr, Manafort, and Kushner did meet with Russian agents in the hopes of getting illegally hacked dirt on Hillary. Correct. Not illegal. Just hours after the meeting was arranged, Trump announced in a campaign speech that he would be discussing Hillary's e-mails in depth in a few days. Have no idea about that, but the meeting had nothing to do with Hilary. it was in fact someone using that as bait to talking about Russian adoptions. Trump dictated a false account of Jr's activities at the meeting... for Jr to present to Congress... I've never been clear on that. You're going to have to detail that out. Two phone calls were made to blocked numbers by Jr the day of the meeting. Trump has blocked numbers. That's pretty obscure. Congress could demand that the FBI trace those numbers but they won't. Ignorance is bliss... I doubt Congress could do that. 6 members of Trump's staff have plead guilty to corruption charges (mostly linked to Russia)... By most likely you mean Not at all linked to Russia. 12 Russian agents have been indicted... 12 Russians, Agents? Who knows. These are not conspiracy theories,... they are facts... If you add them up, a picture develops... No, they are not facts. They are your spin on events and are pretty much indistinguishable from a 9/11 conspiracy theorist,... other than the topic. That's a lot of walking like a duck... If there is a "Trump derangement Syndrome", I think it's in the people that can overlook all that evidence and still support Trump. The only theory is the possibility that Russians were successful in one or more attempts to actually change votes. Prove that and make Mueller's job easier. We can probably never know, because there is no paper trail... We do know, if they weren't... it wasn't for lack of trying.... Most likely that's true, I'm sure they tried. They've tried to mess with previous elections. But the real fact remains that not a shred of evidence has been found that demonstrates that. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by raydawg on 09/19/18 at 14:50:09 Gee...... https://www.ksat.com/news/election-results/district-19-special-runoff-election-result This district is 70 sumtin percent "minority". Haven't elected a repub in decades, however :o |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by WebsterMark on 09/19/18 at 15:00:58 Again Sew, you (and TT) are beginning and operating solely under the premise Trump is a traitor and colluded with the Russians to deceive the American public in numerous ways in order to win the election. Everything you see, you see under this prism. A 9/11 Conspiracist is the same. Everything he sees has to fit into the original premise that this was conducted by the American government. That's why their reasoning and explanations look like nonsense to you. I on the other hand, could be persuaded Trump is guilty. You'll never be persuaded he's innocent. And that statement right there pretty much sums up everything. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by raydawg on 09/19/18 at 15:13:28 Oh jeez...... You wanna get JOG started again? ;D A 9/11 Conspiracist is the same. Everything he sees has to fit into the original premise that this was conducted by the American government. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 16:03:16 594A524F4A5C4C2B0 wrote:
Well, that's one. I know that must grate at you ray - you know, you being a democrat and all.... ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/19/18 at 16:11:57 526067767160774864776E050 wrote:
Funny, you say that. An economy that recovered in the 8 years that Obama was at the helm can't convince you that he did good things for this country. Seems that you'll never be persuaded Obama did any good. What's that say about you? Hey, at least I give credit (such as it is) to trump not fukking up the economy....yet. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by raydawg on 09/20/18 at 07:20:24 WHOA....... That was a loooooooong time. Texas Republican wins state Senate race in district held by Democrats for 139 years http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/20/texas-republican-wins-state-senate-race-in-district-held-by-democrats-for-139-years.html |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/20/18 at 09:05:55 66756D70756373140 wrote:
Yes, it was. But I'm sure the dem being a crook helped a little.... "The runoff election was held following the resignation of Democratic state Sen. Carlos Uresti, who was convicted of helping an oilfield service company he co-owned run a Ponzi scheme." |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by MnSpring on 09/20/18 at 15:25:06 2F313E3F322F34295B0 wrote:
LOL, you have said, you believe JFK was boinking MM. Guess What, You are a Conspiracy NUT. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/20/18 at 15:29:51 4A695477756E6960070 wrote:
LOL, you have said, you believe JFK was boinking MM. Guess What, You are a Conspiracy NUT. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D [/quote] I donno, am I? I think I also once said (about the alleged affair of Kennedy and Monroe) "It doesn't matter" or "I don't care either way". But yeah, you pull at those straws mn. Whatever makes you happy. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/20/18 at 22:48:04 They could have elected a new democrat. Instead they elected a bub. Flores, a political newcomer competing against a seasoned former Democratic congressman, won in a district that is 73 percent Hispanic and African American – despite virtually all political analysts’ expectations." It's the economy, stupid. |
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Title: Re: For those looking to surf a Blue Wave Post by T And T Garage on 09/21/18 at 06:02:35 352A2C2B3631003000382A266D5F0 wrote:
No, it's the establishment stupid. If it were the economy, then trump would be in the 60% area of approval. |
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