SuzukiSavage.com - Print Page

SuzukiSavage.com
/cgi-bin/YaBB.pl
General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> Anecdotal evidence
/cgi-bin/YaBB.pl?num=1536756502

Message started by WebsterMark on 09/12/18 at 05:48:22

Title: Anecdotal evidence
Post by WebsterMark on 09/12/18 at 05:48:22

During the run up to the 2016 election, I predicted a Trump victory chiefly on the basis of three pieces of anecdotal evidence I witnessed while traveling. I've mentioned them before but basically in two cases, people who would normally be opposed to Trump or had very little interest in politics, turned into vocal Trump proponents.

In once case, a plant engineer and his unionized maintenance staff of over 60 were all very vocal Trump supporters as was a young kid I saw parking cars in a rental car lot. Along with the quiet anger I saw at our little town's 4th of July parade towards an anti-Trump float (staffed by the type of fools we saw protesting at the recent Supreme Court hearings) convinced me there was a silent majority that was going to make a difference. These three events were in three different states and all three states went for Trump. One of those states was one of the five surprise states that gave Trump the victory.

I'm in Central PA this week and both Monday and Tuesday nights I heard very vocal Trump support in the hotel bars. Now, I'm not predicting a Republican victory in the mid-terms based on that. Just not enough evidence and traveling sales and engineers are almost always Republicans so its not that surprising. What's surprising is the loud, unashamed and even daring vocal support. That's unusual. But still, that's not enough for me to go all the way out on a limb, but I am predicting a much closer outcome than the MSM is leading everyone to believe. I do not see the possibility of a Blue Wave.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by Eegore on 09/12/18 at 06:01:14

Where I work a lot of people are affected by the budget cuts, and the proposed elimination of cost of living wage increases.

Even knowing that they will lose money (as in potential income, not losing currently possessed funds in their accounts) they are pro-Trump. Most because they hated Obama and Clinton, but why is unimportant.

I ask if they expect a long-term benefit with the current administrative proposals and nobody I have talked to says yes. Most think they will lose part of their pension. So I have to give Trump credit that people will support a proposed budget that reduces their pay and benefits based on their support for him as a person.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/12/18 at 07:04:43

My personal group is what it is. We are like-minded. I know that. That's why I don't spend all my time with them.

What I have been witnessing in the larger picture - outside my personal group - is that of irritability. The people that I knew that voted for trump (and I was shocked to see ow many in my geographic area did) are now the same people who have grown tired of him. Kinda like a hangover they realized that they may have made a mistake. (I should point out too that I was also very shocked to find out how few voted in the primary).

They love "his policies", but have grown tired of the constant barrage of trump news. More than one has said that he'll probably be impeached. That would be fine with them because then they get pence.

On the dem side, it's almost the same thing. They've had enough of the establishment libs. I've seen many a hillary lover start down the path of the Ocasio-Cortez type democrat. It's a sea change for sure. One that is going to test the democrats and repubs.

There might not be a "blue wave" as some have predicted this November (me included). But the game is changing for the better. Dems are now finally holding their reps accountable. The things they really want (in line with what the country overall wants) are now being pushed to the top instead of being kept at bay (Medicare for all, higher taxes on the 1%, federal gun law changes, true middle class tax breaks, etc.)

Suffice it to say, the dems will probably take the House. If trump keeps up his tweeting and Mueller probes a little deeper, they might have chance at the Senate too. But even if those two things don't happen, one thing is for sure.(IMHO) The voter turnout for these midterms will be larger than in the past.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by WebsterMark on 09/12/18 at 08:29:35

2707050D1007620 wrote:

$64000 question. Why will people side with Trump despite the fact he appears to go against their economic interest?

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by WebsterMark on 09/12/18 at 08:32:12

They love "his policies", but have grown tired of the constant barrage of trump news. More than one has said that he'll probably be impeached. That would be fine with them because then they get pence.

I’ve not heard a single person prefer Pence. Not one. Pence is nothing. He’d get steamrolled by Democrats.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by Eegore on 09/12/18 at 09:11:11

"$64000 question. Why will people side with Trump despite the fact he appears to go against their economic interest?"

Mostly because they don't like Clinton or Obama. I ask if they are ok with a lower pension in retirement and they say no, so I ask if they will vote for someone other than Trump in the next election and they say "no". When I ask "Why is that?" they tell me how bad Hillary or Obama is.

This is similar to the ACA where even though for most (that I know) there hasn't been a substantial increase in healthcare annual cost. I haven't found anyone that is ok with denying coverage on pre-existing conditions, but they are ok with allowing it to happen. How can you do both?

When I ask "If you are not ok with pre-existing coverage denial, why are you ok with complete ACA repeal?" the answers are how bad Obama is.

This is based exclusively off my own experiences, when compiled and typed here represent my opinion. I have no references or data to support my opinion.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/12/18 at 10:00:53

0E3C3B2A2D3C2B14382B32590 wrote:

It's not about preference. It's about the noise. Republicans are sick of the noise (at least the ones I know). They don't see trump as viable in 2020. Even with the economy where it is, that's not enough. pence will continue on the same path as trump - signatory on the establishment republican wish list.

Now, of course, the diehards will never leave trump. But that's not enough to carry him. He's losing support among the rust belt and the farm belt. Those once fervent supporters are now not as sure. He's at 40% approval (Pew polling)

Many initially voted more against hillary than for trump. That won't continue given the light that's been on trump and his antics.

I think what we're going to see in the midterms is not so much a vote for a democrat, but a vote against trump.

Of course, this is only my opinion. The future remains to be seen.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by verslagen1 on 09/12/18 at 10:17:21

The ONLY chance you have is to select a HONEST politician in a HONEST primary.

Good luck with that.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by faffi on 09/12/18 at 15:02:20

The Democrats will need a new candidate other than Mrs. Clinton if they want to win the 2020 election.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by batman on 09/12/18 at 16:45:13

And the Rep.s will need a new candidate as well.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by faffi on 09/12/18 at 23:07:15

Yes, but probably not to win the next election if his opponent is Clinton.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/13/18 at 05:45:40

050205050A630 wrote:

Yes, but probably not to win the next election if his opponent is Clinton.

You saying Clinton will get the nod from the democrats?

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/13/18 at 06:09:48

5651565659300 wrote:

Yes, but probably not to win the next election if his opponent is Clinton.

hillary is out. Done. Irrelevant to the democratic party of today. But I take it you're being sarcastic.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by faffi on 09/13/18 at 14:39:39

;)

But on a serious note, do they have any candidates with broad appeal?

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by Serowbot on 09/13/18 at 14:50:47

Biden?...
Warren?...

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/13/18 at 15:05:22

6A6D6A6A650C0 wrote:

;)

But on a serious note, do they have any candidates with broad appeal?

A little too early to tell for the presidential. It'll be a wait and see until the midterms. I have a feeling it might be an upset among the dems (yes, dems). Justice Democrats like Ocasio-Cortez and strong progressives like Beto are leading the charge away from the democratic establishment.

Since that trend is proving to be successful, I think it'd be more likely Warren or possibly someone else in the Bernie camp (if not he himself) would be selected. I don't think Joe can do it.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by WebsterMark on 09/14/18 at 05:01:40

2B3D2A372F3A372C580 wrote:

Biden?...
Warren?...

Yes please.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/14/18 at 05:21:15

Yeah, I dare you to run

creepy uncle joe biden

Copy and paste that into your search engine.

Warren? As big of a joke as she is, she beats Joe.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/14/18 at 07:53:11

As with the Trump outcome, I think politics have entered a new phase that leaves conventional wisdom out in the cold.
I am not sure how much "steering" has been prevalent all along from the power mongers who handicap the primaries etc, to get their horse to a unfair advantage.....
But they are losing a important tool of press/media domination with the invent of other informational avenues people are connecting with....

I believe it is driving lots of folks mad, as they see their grip on the status quo, of how the game was played,lessening.....
Which deeply cuts into their ability to cash in.

When you see the BIG pillars tumble in primaries,you gotta believe this new movement is on.
I simply think the so called "deplorable" factor is NOT one party favored,but a LOT of folks who are sick and tired of the games and lies of politicians.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/14/18 at 08:38:53

Dems and bubs, bubs and dems, back and forth, and in my life, watching the games played out, I saw a few degrees left, and when power swapped, a few degrees right. If, in fact, the two parties are diametrically opposed as we are told, why doesn't the trajectory of America's politics change drastically when power swings?
Because there are unelected people who, even when they change after an election, come out of the same
Think Tanks.
America is tired of it.
Trump told Oprah in 83? he was not interested in the job, but would take it if he ever saw his country in serious trouble.
Americans saw what he saw and elected him, warts and all.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by faffi on 09/14/18 at 15:18:50

What you need is a younger Sanders.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/14/18 at 16:03:36

What is needed is for people to actually understand what capitalism is.
Nobody has seen it.
It died decades ago.
Capitalism is responsible for more improvement than any other system.
Everyone needs to read
Creature from Jekyll island.
At least check out G. Edward Griffin you tubes on the federal reserve.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/15/18 at 08:46:16

302F292E33340535053D2F23685A0 wrote:

Jog, we have gone round and round on this before, you and I.
I respect your insights and opinions on many things, but again buddy, and I will only offer this once, as I know we will never agree, or make that, I will never side with your absolute view on this subject.

Yes, capitalism has proven the TRUTH that it affords the most people the opportunity to improve on their life lot.
I will example firsthand, how I saw folks born into the mess of Asia, come to the states, hired by Boeing, thriving and prospering by their OWN hard work, to a lifestyle they could not fathom, only dreaming about......
They shared with me their return home on vacations, and their sharing with those still in Asia, and the awe those folks have in the telling of their stories.
It is breathtaking, as well as humbling, when you compare it with much of the "guilt" that many try and hang on those Whites, conservatives, etc, who do well in America today.

However, not every body, person can rise to such self sufficiency, nor is every employer, business, playing "fair."

A goverment needs to provide and regulate many things in order to have the best opportunity for the most, a foundation, if you will, for all to build upon that is as static as possible.....

And that includes currency, as it is the instrument of "barter" for us to commence in commerce.

And finally, as a democracy, so many things are NOT static, but change with times, and invention, the INTERNET being a great example, or pharmaceuticals.....

If these two products were truly allowed to "gouge" the consumer for a maximum profit, it could, and I say would, have a adverse effect on many who could not afford to participate in the benefits of capitalism.

I know you believe currency manipulation was more sinister, I just disagree, not in total, but in theory, as with ANYTHING man has done in this world, greed has been a motivating factor for many, even in communism, socialism, too, as those who are in control of distribution ALWAYS see that THEIR plates are filled first.

The only person I know of who did NOT fall to this temptation was a hippie named Jesus ;D

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/15/18 at 08:49:09

7770777778110 wrote:

What you need is a younger Sanders.

Elaborate please.
Please keep in mind how he has prospered under the current policies.
I see just talk, yet no example, as in just another politician who says one thing, yet does another.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by faffi on 09/15/18 at 12:56:57

I have not heard of Sanders since he stepped down as candidate of choice to Clinton, but he spoke of important changes that over time would change America. IMO to the better. But if you conservative, it would not be considered good.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/15/18 at 14:04:37

313631313E570 wrote:

Funny, you make charges against group think, then you group charge....

Come back and dialogue once you understand your disingenuous statement.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by Serowbot on 09/15/18 at 14:09:32

All we need to win is someone that ain't Trump... :P

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/15/18 at 15:32:39

Put Hillary out in front.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by raydawg on 09/15/18 at 17:07:46

6B7D6A776F7A776C180 wrote:

All we need to win is someone that ain't Trump... :P

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/17/18 at 06:12:25

65766E73766070170 wrote:

[quote author=6B7D6A776F7A776C180 link=1536756502/15#26 date=1537045772]All we need to win is someone that ain't Trump... :P

Again Bot, it ain't Trump.

What is so hard for you to understand that?

Yes, YES, there are some die hard MAGA maggots who are just as stupid as those leftist who shoot up softball teams, etc....
But that is NOT enough to have gotten him elected, its folks are sick and tired of the partisan crap, even Ruth is ;D

But you are so part of that mindset, you can't see the truth anymore.
[/quote]

Right ray, and all those that simply voted for "Change" are now waking up with a severe hangover.

Thus, trump's approval rating is in the toilet and going down - just in time for the midterms.

He won by about 100,000 votes in electoral states. Well, that's now gone.

You see people Beto and Ocasio-Cortez now, taking that space up. The public in this country lean left. Every single poll shows it.

Not to worry ray - I'm sure, like me, Bot sees the truth. As does everyone else.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 09/17/18 at 14:05:41

After eight years of hope and change
America voted for a businessman.
When was the last time America had a president who understood what making payroll meant?
Trump is necessary.
The deregulation and tax relief, the renegotiation of trade deals, he's Unscrewing Americans who have been screwed by Washington.
And he eats boogers so you hate him.
What happened to
I don't care if he's perfect
As long as his policies are good?
The problem is the ignorance of the people.
You don't KNOW how much good is being done.
He's by far the best president we've had in my life.
It's not good that he's messing with Iran and Syria, and it was not good that Obama destroyed Libya, but those places were marked for destruction shortly after 9/11, and the whys of those decisions are not known, nor is it clear how such a decision so long ago is STILL something to push toward.
The fact that the countries on that list from so long ago are where we are focusing our foreign policy should be something everyone is curious about.

Title: Re: Anecdotal evidence
Post by T And T Garage on 09/17/18 at 14:34:22

37282E2934330232023A28246F5D0 wrote:

After eight years of hope and change . And we all got change for the better. Lower unemployment, more new jobs, record setting corporate profits, record DOW, etc., etc.

America voted for a businessman. LOL yeah, a bad one.
When was the last time America had a president who understood what making payroll meant? We still haven't. Have you not seen the number of lawsuits against that idiot fro not paying his bills? Wow - denial.

Trump is necessary. No, he's not - not even close.

The deregulation and tax relief, the renegotiation of trade deals, he's Unscrewing Americans who have been screwed by Washington. LOL! every single thing he's done is lockstep with the establishment repubs. The tax breaks did squat for the middle class. The deregulation has only helped the largest corporations.

And he eats boogers so you hate him. Well, I wouldn't doubt he does, but yes, I do hate him - and I ain't the only one.
What happened to
I don't care if he's perfect
As long as his policies are good? His policies? He HAS no policies. It's the establishment GOPers. HE couldn't find his a$$ with both hands and a roadmap. Seriously, just read his twitter feed.
The problem is the ignorance of the people. There you are correct. The ones that couldn't see past the facade of trump got duped by him. Now most of them are regretting it. Well, the smart ones anyway.

You don't KNOW how much good is being done. No, I do. And it's not that good. Like trump, it's a facade. It's a house built on sand. Inflation is creeping up and our deficit spending is on an upward trajectory again. Paired with inflation, we're almost seeing a negative wage growth. Pay attention a little closer and you'll see.

He's by far the best president we've had in my life. LOL - that is simply a ridiculous statement - but you're free to have your opinion.

It's not good that he's messing with Iran and Syria, and it was not good that Obama destroyed Libya, but those places were marked for destruction shortly after 9/11, and the whys of those decisions are not known, nor is it clear how such a decision so long ago is STILL something to push toward. Speaking of which, there's a war brewing. I think we'll see another one before 2020. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

The fact that the countries on that list from so long ago are where we are focusing our foreign policy should be something everyone is curious about.

He's got zero tact, he's not a statesman in the tiniest sense - that's what we should be worried about. Ask pretty much anyone outside this country and they'll agree - trump is a joke/amusement to the rest of the world.