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Message started by Eegore on 07/24/20 at 21:43:19

Title: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/24/20 at 21:43:19

So part of the program I mentioned before that we got up and running has allowed a lab team at Colorado University to create a short term SARS-COV-2 test. Really short, 45 minutes and non-invasive.

However the implementation of short term tests like this could yield a higher false positive reading, which is why all positives would be recommended to secondary testing if available.

"The test predicted with 100% accuracy all of the negative samples, and 29 of 30 positive samples were predicted accurately" - Sawyer Lab at the BioFrontiers Institute in CU Boulder.

The question is would you rather have faster testing, or testing that has near zero false readings? I prefer faster tests, instead of 3 day turnarounds, and retest positives.

From what I've been told, since I am pro-reducing Federal slowdown of modern science, and have assisted with the implementation of a high speed test that may yield false-positives, I am obviously a Socialist and a liar right?

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/25/20 at 03:17:30

If it said negative, it was always right,,
One in thirty , false positive?
That's a useful tool.
A test that yields twenty percent false positives and twenty percent false negatives is pretty crappy.

People who include car wrecks and gunshot are liars, E.

You can quit pretending that we are being unreasonable in our criticisms of the way things have been handled.
Including a death knowing it needs to be thrown out creates a higher number, telling people it's worse than it actually is.

It may be how it's been done, but why is it done so foolishly?
Why would anyone include a piece of data
Knowing
It needs to be removed?

Unless they want inaccurate and intentionally massaged higher numbers..

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by philthymike on 07/25/20 at 09:24:12

Socialism never lies :D

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by MnSpring on 07/25/20 at 09:30:50

4B6B69617C6B0E0 wrote:

"...The test predicted with 100% accuracy all of the negative samples, and 29 of 30 positive samples were predicted accurately ..."

Couple of questions;

How was the, ‘test’, ‘tested’ ?

Why do you believe that 3.3 out of 100 wrong ‘tests’ are good ?
Which would be, (how many ?), wrong out of 4 MILLION cases reported, (case being a positive, regardless of anything else)

Why is the word, ‘Predicted’, used to gauge the test ?
In my experience, ‘predicted’, is what, ‘could/should’, be.
Like a certain amount of powder, of a certain kind, in a certain case, with a certain bullet weight, which has a certain diameter, which has a certain coating, which is made of a certain material, which has a certain length. It is/can be, ‘predicted’, to propel that projectile at ‘X’ speed.

A, ‘test’, is absolute. In the above info, the actual shooting, then testing, will determine the actual FPS. Then in the real world, one can load something by, ‘prediction’, that it will above or below a certain FPS/FPE. Yet only a, ‘test’, can prove it is, or not.

Why do you believe a, ‘prediction’, is a ‘test’ ?

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/25/20 at 13:47:33

You can quit pretending that we are being unreasonable in our criticisms of the way things have been handled.

By yours and other's logic the CDC are "liars" because they publicly disclose the entirety of their collection methods and somebody else uses that information to make up lies. As in if I make a YouTube video showing how I clean a carburetor, and it's a poor process but I use no Lysol, but your neighbor lies to you and says I use Lysol to clean carburetors… I am a liar.

Because I put out an honest and accurate YouTube video of me cleaning a carb knowing your neighbor is an idiot, I am a liar too because I know he lies.

That's sounds unreasonable to me.

"Why would anyone include a piece of data
Knowing
It needs to be removed?"

I already explained this, provided references and examples, but you won't accept the answer. All large data pools create provisional categories so they can group data during collection process, this is a measure of efficiency that later results in more accuracy.

Having more data on a subject is better than dismissing data that might be important later. The issue is the collection method is disclosed - it's out there, before press conferences, before news sources, its been done before, and is publicly disclosed.

So in this case since I have disclosed the preliminary test results data pool, if the local news makes up some garbage about how the tests are %100 accurate - I lied.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/25/20 at 14:11:56

"Why do you believe a, ‘prediction’, is a ‘test’ ? "

Because guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. There are no "absolute" tests on a current live virus negative reading until we know for sure how long it can survive undetected in human fluid. Technically all known virus are just "undetected" in humans as there is no way to forever rule out that the virus wasn't actually there. All we know is no symptoms arise for the lifetime of that human.

This is different than physical testing as the ammunition analogy represents the end of life of a human when the bullet has finished it's path of travel. So if we take a direct analogue approach and take a human that lives to age 80, we would consider the path of the bullet being measured to take 80 years. This is because we could not 100% accurately say where the bullet will land until it's path has been completed.

"How was the, ‘test’, ‘tested’ ?"

This is an example and only an example of some of the information I know about this process. This is not an attempt to indicate that the exact numbers, methods, procedures or actions of CU Boulder and Sawyer labs used this specific method in exactly the way I describe.

If you take 100 samples and you know 50 of them are not positive for SARS, by testing those samples 100 times by other means and getting 50 negative results it can be assumed, but never absolutely confirmed, that the 50 samples are negative for SARS.

Then test those 50 samples 100 times each for antibodies and get a 0% antibody result it can be assumed, but never absolutely confirmed, that the 50 samples are negative for SARS.

Then repeat the process for the positive samples.

At this point each sample has been tested 200 times each, and each has been taken from humans that present either zero symptoms, or have 100% SARS-COV-2 symptoms and reflect samples of live virus viewed under laboratory equipment.

Repeat the process again for all negative samples.

Add live virus to another set of 50 positive and 50 negative samples.

Repeat the process again for all samples.

At this point there is a huge chance that all negative samples are negative, and all positive are positive, and another set had live virus injected further increasing the chance of a positive result.

Check every sample for live virus under laboratory equipment 7 or more times.

Get your New Test, test 100 samples, 50 positive, and 50 negative. The New Test will either match the previous sample testing pool and visual confirmation of live virus, or it will not. However since the New Test can not ever guarantee the future result of any event of any kind it can only make a prediction, that being that no virus exists under the conditions that we are able to detect virus at this time.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 01:16:40

Well the current tests are reported to be taking at least a week, or longer. Which makes the test virtually useless because it's not possible to contact trace with that much lag.

It's insane that the USA even after 7 months is not able to get its citizens tested with results back within a day. I'm sure that Trump gets instantaneous test results.

This is why it's a complete sh!tshow. And it's going to get worse, meanwhile Trump's strategy is to create more chaos because he doesn't see how it's not working for him. He'll bring the Senate down with him.

After nearly four months of testing, some labs in South Florida and elsewhere processing coronavirus tests say they were not prepared to handle the volume of tests currently being administered. As a result, people are facing higher average wait times — sometimes up to two weeks — to get their results.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-testing-problems-continue-20200710-7xwazhkrvjgsfmafgbafple7uu-story.html

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by MnSpring on 07/26/20 at 07:50:52

0727252D3027420 wrote:

... the ammunition analogy
represents the end of life of a human when the bullet has finished it's path of travel. ...

OMG, just a fantastic deflection.

CHANGE, a analogy of a ‘recipe’,
to represent something completely different !!!!!!!

S.O.P. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/26/20 at 09:59:18

"OMG, just a fantastic deflection.

CHANGE, a analogy of a ‘recipe’,
to represent something completely different !!!!!!!"

Can you explain your logic here?

Are you saying that when you "test" the speed of a bullet fired that the result can be concluded before the bullet's path of travel ends?

My understanding is that a "prediction" is made based off the manufacturing components of the bullet, and the weapon firing it, but the "test" is complete once the bullet hits a target and is measured.

A human lifespan would be the path of the bullet. When the bullet hits the target and all variables end, there is a completed and confirmed test. Anything prior is a prediction.

When a human dies, all variables end and it can be confirmed that the human never showed symptoms of the virus. Anything prior to death is a "prediction".

In this case the New Test is making predictions that need confirmation. Even after 100 resample reviews, all that can be said is the virus is undetectable by all known means, at this time.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/26/20 at 10:02:12

"It's insane that the USA even after 7 months is not able to get its citizens tested with results back within a day. I'm sure that Trump gets instantaneous test results."

There are a lot of people in the US and limited laboratory facilities. Testing at this magnitude has never been done before, personally I think it would be insane if we thought laboratories could handle half of the current demand.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/26/20 at 10:25:29

Why would anyone include a piece of data
Knowing
It needs to be removed?"

I already explained this, provided references and examples, but you won't accept the answer. All large data pools create provisional categories so they can group data during collection process, this is a measure of efficiency that later results in more accuracy.

So you say.

There is exactly ZERO reason to expend energy and time to add a gunshot victim into the numbers today
Just to remove it later.
Might as well just include every death for a few months.
That system you defend tells people a higher than accurate number.
Those numbers are then used by people to make decisions, long prior to your highly touted filtering and winnowing out moment..
And yeah, because of Their choice to include people who should not be included, they are scaring the public and giving numbers to policy makers who decide for me if I can go places, or if I must wear a mask.
They are LYING..

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/26/20 at 14:47:57

"Might as well just include every death for a few months."

Yeah. They do that actually, but all year.

That's my point. Include things and then categorize after, instead of trying to categorize first and then later go "Oh Sh!t, we never made a category for this."

SARS-COV-2 is unknown, a new strain of virus and we can't go around treating things like we already know what will happen. Collect the data, categorize it. That's provisional data.

"Those numbers are then used by people to make decisions, long prior to your highly touted filtering and winnowing out moment.."

So since sh!tbag politicians want to use CDC data that the CDC very specifically says "Not for use" because of popular public opinion to get re-elected, the CDC needs to change their process to better fit the garbage public opinion and the duplicitous political process?

How dare the CDC use proven method when they can cater to political opinion and garbage news. Lets continue to ignore the process worked for decades, but now all the sudden doesn't.

If I clean a carb but know someone else will lie to you about that carb cleaning for personal gain, I should never ever tell anyone how I did it because I know someone else will lie about it. That's the logic here.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 18:13:55

Testing at this magnitude has never been done before...

Not much of an excuse when you're talking about the unUnited States. Look what they accomplished in just over two years with the Manhattan Project, and this SARS CoV-2 is often likened to a war. America went from literally nothing at all to a plutonium implosion bomb and a uranium critical mass projectile bomb in what, three years? They build a virtual city, with thousands of people, gathered the biggest brains in the Galaxy, co-opted the Lawrences Berkely cyclotron to produce the plutonium. All of this was experimental, and theoretical, yet they pulled it off during the war in three years. No other country on Earth could have done that. They had 120,000 people working on it at los alamos and oak ridge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project

And you expect me to believe that after seven months the uUS cannot get their citizens adequately tested and tracked. Come off it, it's the political will and chaos that is lacking.

Take a look at this, how the US can't even get the opportunity for proper randomised testing done.... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/26/us-failures-are-holding-back-search-for-coronavirus-drugs

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Serowbot on 07/26/20 at 18:19:14

We have an idiot driving the bus...
100 days to election.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 18:23:04

Thing is Serow, that Trump is also driving the GOP bus and like the lemmings they are, they'll follow him over the cliff. Ironically Trump has united the unUnited States like no one before him!

A multi bankrupt, reality show fraudster has screwed the U.S. Who could have guessed.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/26/20 at 19:12:26

"Not much of an excuse when you're talking about the unUnited States. Look what they accomplished in just over two years with the Manhattan Project, and this SARS CoV-2 is often likened to a war"

"Likened" sure, but in practice totally different.

If every human in the US needed to be laboratory tested 70 years ago it wouldn't have gone any better than it does now.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 19:40:42

"Likened" sure, but in practice totally different.

Look at you, you're using the same disingenuous tactics that that the trumpeters use against you. You learn fast sparrow.

I know you know this but seeing as you want to pretend I'm using a false equivalence I'll explain further. By 'likened' what I'm suggesting is that the people who have likened it to a war, which is a lot of the GOP and Democrats as well from Trump down, mean that it is something serious that requires full government resources not 'good enough' measures. And it certainly is that. It's a global fast spreading pandemic after all.

If every human in the US needed to be laboratory tested 70 years ago it wouldn't have gone any better than it does now.

That makes no sense whatsoever. 70 years ago the structure of DNA wasn't even known. Nevertheless my point was that the US even back then had the wherewithal to do groundbreaking research into new areas of physics and bring their gadgets to fruition.

The Human Genome was only sequenced fully in 2001 at a cost of $3billion, now there are machines that can do it for $100. To suggest that the US is incapable of adequately testing and contact tracing it's citizens is absurd especially as other smaller countries have done it and these are countries with less expertise available. Trump, your non esteemed imbecile leader has been publicly playing down the seriousness and undermined his own experts. In this regard the unUnited States is coming over as a banana republic.

See my above link how the US is not even doing proper randomised trials, there's no excuse for that.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, are you suggesting that the unUnited States is doing a job commensurate with the threat that SARS CoV-2 is presenting?

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 20:16:11

btw Eegore, weren't you saying that whether the arrests were constitutional seem to be about which side one was on? Here's the proof of no probable cause for arrest. Ergo not constitutional.

Kris Cline, Deputy Director of the Federal Protective Service—apparently does not know what the word “arrest” means.

The person in the now notorious video was merely in or near a crowd from which someone shone a laser at the police.

Simply put, for an arrest to be constitutional it must be supported by probable cause.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/unpacking-dhss-troubling-explanation-portland-van-video

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by Eegore on 07/26/20 at 20:30:33

"Eegore, weren't you saying that whether the arrests were constitutional seem to be about which side one was on?

Yeah. People b!tch it's not "Constitutional" about anything and everything if they don't like the person in charge. Otherwise its all good.

Actual Constitutional law means nothing.

Title: Re: I'm a socialist liar
Post by eau de sauvage on 07/26/20 at 21:52:02

Well as you can see from the above article on the Lawfare blog, which is a seriously heavy duty legal site, that objectively these arbitrary 'kidnappings' of random protesters they want to talk with are not constitutional, for the reasons you can read about.