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General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> No new cases in the past 7 days.
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Message started by Eegore on 04/17/20 at 10:25:42

Title: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Eegore on 04/17/20 at 10:25:42

Looking over the statistics Trump put out yesterday I have some issues. The same I had when Birx put out numbers a month ago.

"Nationwide, more than 850 counties, or nearly 30 percent of our country, have reported no new cases in the last seven days."

This is true. Here we can see that number is actually 905.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This is good, however its nice to know over half had zero cases to begin with.

But even more important is how useful is it to compare by number of states? Isn't percentage of population the actual concern since the virus is not isolated to a region or state?

For instance of the 850 counties with zero new cases, when all combined they make up about 5.8% of the total US population.

So we have 30% of the "Country" that reports no new cases. and also using the same counties 5.8% of the US population has no new cases.

This doesn't mean that things aren't improving. It just means, to me, that the math can be presented to make things look a certain way. I prefer to make weekly charts and overlay them by state so the trends can be seen in direct comparison.

This is new-case reporting of living humans.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by WebsterMark on 04/17/20 at 10:34:30

Wasn’t it Mark Twain who said “statistics are like a lamppost to a drunk. They’re used more for Support than illumination“

Here’s a math exercise. Go on the John Hopkins site, take the number of US cases and divide by the 330 million. Now explain why we put thousands of business into bankruptcy, spent billions of dollars and enacted untold misery on healthy people.

Ain’t math fun.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Eegore on 04/17/20 at 10:43:38

I agree about the math. The issue regarding the total US population versus number of cases starts to delve into the ethics of preserving human life. It's too easy to just create another formula, like comparing the R0 of SARS-COV-2 to other diseases, now all the sudden we will have millions dead in a year.

So the closing of business, schools etc,. to me, is more of an ethics approach than a mathematical one.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Ed L. on 04/20/20 at 09:06:32

Yeah math can be used in strange ways. I had a talk with my financial advisory about stocks. Dropped 20% on some investments and his advice was to keep in the market because when it comes back up to the original I would of gained 25% from the low. Found out he had invested my funds in a high risk without my permission and was just trying to cover his butt.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by srinath on 04/20/20 at 10:03:37

0B2A1102604E0 wrote:

High risk, low risk didn't even matter - I lost over 1/2, I'm still under where I was when I first opened the account in 2018.
I should have not touched it at all - I'd have made up 1/2 of the loss now I've made up ~25% of the loss. Almost entirely by luck.

Cool.
Srinath.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Matchless G11 on 04/20/20 at 10:18:53

50714A593B150 wrote:

Wow that's bad, My financial advisor put my money in pumpkin futures
he said "they should peak mid November".

From a Simpson episode.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Ed L. on 04/20/20 at 12:10:35

I got it straightened out through his insurance so didn't take a hit. Still was upsetting listening him try to fast talk his way out of his mistake. Numbers are just tools which can be used a lot of ways.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by eau de sauvage on 04/20/20 at 16:12:35

1A3A38302D3A5F0 wrote:

Looking over the statistics Trump put out yesterday I have some issues.

Isn't that a bit naive? I mean any numbers that Trump gives on anything are going to be bullshite, it's in his dna. It started with the bullsh!t numbers for the inauguration, then went onto the bullsh!t numbers about voter fraud, and it's been a continuous stream of this sort of idiocy. Whether the numbers are important or trivial it matters not to Trump.

Any numbers Trump gives about anything have come from somewhere else, and he'll massage them or pummel them into submission until he comes up with a number that fits his latest narrative, which may change by the hour. This is not sarcasm btw.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by Eegore on 04/20/20 at 16:34:30

"Isn't that a bit naive? I mean any numbers that Trump gives on anything are going to be bullshite, it's in his dna"

It's the math, not the person I was addressing, for instance the next sentence read:

"The same I had when Birx put out numbers a month ago."

I don't consider Trump to be accurate on most issues, but for this particular thread I was looking at the math overall, no matter who said it.

Title: Re: No new cases in the past 7 days.
Post by pg on 04/20/20 at 17:37:13

594B5F5C4B4D4F2A0 wrote:

Any numbers Trump gives about anything have come from somewhere else

Excluding the electoral college of course....

Best regards,