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Message started by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 08:32:07

Title: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 08:32:07

...just went even higher.

Biden apologized to pressure from the Leftist wing of the Democratic party. This improves Trump's odds because:

1) More likely than ever Biden will drop out. Being a senator all those years as well as a vice president means there are countless actions and statements he made that are potential targets for the radical wing. He's essentially poked a hole in his boat and he won't be able to bail that water fast enough. He's sunk.
2) This implicates Sanders as well.
3) The more power the radical leftist exhibits, the fewer older, moderate voters will turn out. I know older Dems like this. No way they're voting for reparations, free housing based on race, cancelled health insurance from work, higher taxes and essentially taking a risk when the economy is going so well. They ain't gonna do that. They won't vote for Trump, but they won't vote.
4) The longer Biden stays in, the better for Trump, but even if by some miracle he survives, Trump still comes out ahead. There's a percentage of Biden supporters and Harris or Warren supporters that are not compatible. If Biden stays around and wins, many of nutjobs Dems won't vote for an old white guy no matter what. If he drops out, many of Biden's supporters won't vote for a leftist like Harris or Warren. What percentage that ends up being is the $64k question but the Sanders/Hilary fiasco didn't help Hilary at all. It cost her votes. I think that duplicates itself in 2020.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/09/19 at 09:19:54

I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich. He himself hasn't delivered. No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval. That in itself says a lot.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates. Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on. He's going to constantly be on the defensive.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts. That's it. Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Serowbot on 07/09/19 at 09:28:14

I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by pg on 07/09/19 at 11:36:41

The left misses the big picture yet again. The moment I saw every last person at the debate raise their hand and support giving illegals health care before Americans, I knew Trump would get re-elected.

The left ceded the middle ground to Trump voluntarily. 20 years down the road that point of view may be well received. If the Democratic Party, as its alternative to Trump, decides to run on this radical new agenda, America will punish that hubris with a second term for Trump.

Best regards,

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by raydawg on 07/09/19 at 12:20:25

BET founder Robert Johnson praises Trump, says Democratic Party 'moved too far to the left'

Ok, no biggie, just one guy, just one vote......
However, his wealth is derived from the Black community, can't see him wanting to jeopardize that income to just to pal with a white rich dude.....

It might explain as well something I called a long time ago, there has to be a reason the libs are pandering so hard to the Black vote, and if you couple this with what Al Sharpton said recently about the democrats taking the Black vote, lumping them all together.....for granted.

Something is most assuredly up......

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/bet-founder-robert-johnson-says-democratic-party-moved-too-far-to-the-left

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Serowbot on 07/09/19 at 12:43:47

Yup,.. I bet Trump has dozens of black supporters... ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by MnSpring on 07/09/19 at 12:56:24

What were those things that Johnson Said ?

"...“The party in my opinion, for me personally, has moved too far to the left,” ..."

"... the Democratic Party has become too liberal to defeat President Trump in 2020..."

"...the party has become so liberal, he isn’t supporting a particular 2020 candidate at this time..."

"...The message of some of the programs that Democrats are pushing are not resonating with the majority of the American people..."

"...The BET founder, who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, even praised some of Trump’s recent accomplishments...."

"...the economy is doing great, and it’s particularly reaching populations that heretofore had very bad problems in terms of jobs and employments and the opportunities that come with employment,” Johnson said. “African-American unemployment is at its lowest level… I give the president a lot of credit for moving the economy in a positive direction that’s benefiting a large amount of Americans..."

"...Johnson said he gives Trump an “A+” for the economy..."

As quoted in above.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by MnSpring on 07/09/19 at 12:57:39

786E79647C69647F0B0 wrote:

Yup,.. I bet Trump has dozens of black supporters... ;D ;D ;D

Na, you confusing that with the DSA people.

(This DRIVE BY, brought to you by ...)

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:02:22

From RealClearPolitics. The average of 9 major polls.

Immediately prior to the 2016 election:
RCP Average Favorable 37.5 Unfavorable 58.5

As of today:
RCP Average Approve: 44.6 Disapprove: 52.1

Now the polling asked one question prior to the election which was the favorable vs unfavorable question. While in office, the question is Approve or disapprove

What you should consider is what relationship is there between the two questions and secondly should it concern you that his approval rating is essentially higher than immediately preceding the election?

From there the question to consider is: assuming everything this time next year is the same as it is today, (economy, job & wage growth etc...) would those several hundred thousand people who made the difference in the 2016 election switch to vote for Kamala Harris or Joe Biden?
That's one critical question. There are others, but why would enough of those people in those five key states switch? You can't give the standard answer; "Trump is an awful person" because based on his approval numbers, people aren't agreeing with you. It appears he's gained in that area. So tell me why he isn't going to be reelected?

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:03:55

3224332E36232E35410 wrote:

I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

58.5% thought that just before the election and he won.
Not sure where your 65% comes from as the more likely number is 52.1%

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:09:47

445A555459445F42300 wrote:

I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.
Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich. He himself hasn't delivered. No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval. That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates. Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on. He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts. That's it. Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.
And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by verslagen1 on 07/09/19 at 15:09:52

3422352830252833470 wrote:

I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary. ;D

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:15:12

392A3D3C232E282A217E4F0 wrote:

[quote author=3422352830252833470 link=1562686327/0#2 date=1562689694]I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary. ;D[/quote]

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary. Exactly correct. Well put.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/09/19 at 15:26:39

0E3C3B2A2D3C2B14382B32590 wrote:

[quote author=445A555459445F42300 link=1562686327/0#1 date=1562689194]I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true. It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base. But it's never been more than 45%. Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich. He himself hasn't delivered. No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval. That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was. Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates. Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on. He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now. His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts. That's it. Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that. However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office. The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's. He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms. He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K. Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him. He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

He is his own worst enemy.

And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

[/quote]

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/09/19 at 15:27:31

677463627D7076747F20110 wrote:

[quote author=3422352830252833470 link=1562686327/0#2 date=1562689694]I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by verslagen1 on 07/09/19 at 15:37:18

5F414E4F425F44592B0 wrote:

[quote author=677463627D7076747F20110 link=1562686327/0#11 date=1562710192][quote author=3422352830252833470 link=1562686327/0#2 date=1562689694]I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary. ;D[/quote]

That's actually a great way to put it.

trump didn't so much win the election, Hillary lost it.[/quote]

I think the DNC lost it when they did the back room deal to favor her over Bernie.
And I'm not much in favor of the "superdelegates" either.

I also think Biden blew his chance.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Serowbot on 07/09/19 at 15:49:15

There will be a new batch of 18 year olds voting and they are a majority pro gun control, pro-choice, pro LBGT, pro healthcare for all,... they believe in Climate Change. They want their future to be healthy and safe, peaceful and racially equal.
There will be an aging population of Republicans under ground in boxes.

70k votes?... more Pub's than that died off last month...
How do Republicans fight the tide?...
Youth is progressive,... and it will always win in the end.
Now , add in the workers affected by tariffs, farmers hurt, coal miners that didn't get what was promised, Vet's insulted by Trump's abuse of McCain, and Gold Star families... parents worried about children's pre-existing conditions and LBGT children, blacks and Hispanics worried about the "good people" on the other side. Attempts at a Muslim ban,... Women that have been assaulted but were afraid to come forward.
Republican women that have had abortions but never told their husbands or parents.
Fathers, mothers, children, spouses, uncles, aunts, cousins, friends , of people that have been killed in mass shootings and seen Republicans do nothing but send prayers.
70k was hair's breadth... and it's long gone.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:49:23

372926272A372C31430 wrote:

[quote author=0E3C3B2A2D3C2B14382B32590 link=1562686327/0#10 date=1562710187][quote author=445A555459445F42300 link=1562686327/0#1 date=1562689194]I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true. It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base. But it's never been more than 45%. Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.
Gloating doesn't matter however. Electoral College Votes do.

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich. He himself hasn't delivered. No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

This is from the link. Most did get a cut. The Time story presents it as if people didn't but most everyone I know got a tax cut. I did. My kids did.

But an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this month showed that just 17 percent of Americans believe their taxes have been cut. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 21 percent thought their taxes were lowered.

That’s despite an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center that two out of three taxpayers would see their taxes go down. The biggest benefits, though, go to the top 1 percent, who are projected to receive an average tax break of $62,000 in 2018, while the middle one-fifth of income earners got an average tax cut of $1,090 — about $20 per biweekly paycheck.

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval. That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was. Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates. Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on. He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now. His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts. That's it. Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that. However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office. The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's. He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

The current President gets the credit or the blame. That's how it has always been. No one's gonna listen to the "This is Obama's economy" because it isn't.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms. He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K. Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him. He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

[color=#ff0000]He's also the only President to be attacked non-stop 24/7 by the main stream media from day one. No one's faced that except Trump. Certainly that has an impact in those polls.
He is his own worst enemy.[/color]

And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

[/quote]
[/quote]

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:55:42

7E687F627A6F62790D0 wrote:

That's all opinion and I could say the exact same on the other side. For example, the Democratic Candidates care more about illegals breaking in the county to steal resources than the Americans who live here. See how that works?
And the 70k does not appear to be gone. In fact, if anything, it's grown.
That's my point. Trump is not losing any ground.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 15:57:50

I think the DNC lost it when they did the back room deal to favor her over Bernie.
And I'm not much in favor of the "superdelegates" either.

I also think Biden blew his chance.

And that coupled with an intense dislike of Hillary as a person caused a lot of Dems to stay home. Here's my point, when Biden drops out and the eventually winner is a far left Leftist, will moderate Democrats stay home in numbers equal to or greater than they did in 2016? I think that answer is mostly yes.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Serowbot on 07/09/19 at 16:08:46

685A5D4C4B5A4D725E4D543F0 wrote:

That's my point. Trump is not losing any ground.

How many people turned 18 in the last 3-4 years?
How many people died?
What's the ratio of Right to Left?
Did you choose to ignore that part?

In the race of birthdays vs funerals,... birthdays will win.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/09/19 at 16:23:12

Enough in those key states? California and New York don’t matter.

Look it up.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Serowbot on 07/09/19 at 16:31:12

You look it up.
I'm comfortable enough knowing that the trend leans in one direction.
You need to worry about how far and how fast you can hold back the tide.
One direction, every day... this tide never goes out.
Blame Climate Change... ;D

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/09/19 at 16:36:29

7C4E49585F4E59664A59402B0 wrote:

[quote author=372926272A372C31430 link=1562686327/0#13 date=1562711199][quote author=0E3C3B2A2D3C2B14382B32590 link=1562686327/0#10 date=1562710187][quote author=445A555459445F42300 link=1562686327/0#1 date=1562689194]I think it's wishful thinking for a few reasons.

First, he didn't win in some sort of landslide (70K votes in the electoral is all that he actually won by).
Assuming your number is true, why would those 70k change votes? His approval numbers don't indicate that they likely will.

Not to worry, those number are true. It's a fact that he does indeed have a strong base. But it's never been more than 45%. Given that he's averaged about 40% overall, he's not in any position to gloat.
Gloating doesn't matter however. Electoral College Votes do.

True - and that's why he's in trouble.

Second, he's only rubber stamped the establishment republican manifesto - the tax cuts for the rich. He himself hasn't delivered. No new health care, Mexico didn't pay for the wall, Hillary's not locked up, etc.
Most people received a tax cut so they don't buy the tax cuts for the rich.

Sorry, but nowhere near "most people" received a tax cut.
http://time.com/5570679/trump-tax-cuts/

This is from the link. Most did get a cut. The Time story presents it as if people didn't but most everyone I know got a tax cut. I did. My kids did.

But an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll this month showed that just 17 percent of Americans believe their taxes have been cut. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 21 percent thought their taxes were lowered.

That’s despite an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center that two out of three taxpayers would see their taxes go down. The biggest benefits, though, go to the top 1 percent, who are projected to receive an average tax break of $62,000 in 2018, while the middle one-fifth of income earners got an average tax cut of $1,090 — about $20 per biweekly paycheck. - Like I said....

Third, with an economy that is arguably doing well, he still can't get above 45% approval. That in itself says a lot.
His approval was less than that when he won the election.

Indeed it was. Thus why he lost the popular vote by 3 million.

trump is his own worst enemy.

I have a funny feeling that he will suffer big time in the debates. Biden, Warren, Harris or whomever will have so much red meat to chew on. He's going to constantly be on the defensive.
That's what Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio etc... thought.

Perhaps, but they don't have the ammo that trump's given these new dems now. His failed border wall, the tax cuts for the rich, the incessant tweeting, the Mueller investigation, the sex abuse allegations, the Revolutionary War airports, the getting laughed at by the UN, "covefe", etc., etc.

Think about it - all he's done is the tax cuts. That's it. Other than that, he's just repealed Obama policies by EO.
Today's economy is better than when he took office. Consumer confidence is higher. Wages have increased.

No one's denying that. However, like me, most people know that the economy was on a good path when he took office. The actual fact is, Obama's 3 year numbers were better than trump's. He can try and take credit all he wants, but the fact are there.

The current President gets the credit or the blame. That's how it has always been. No one's gonna listen to the "This is Obama's economy" because it isn't.

You can think what you want, but anyone/everyone can see that what trump took over was vastly improved over what Obama did. And again, looking at jobs, Obama's record was better than trump's in the first 3 years.

Hell, all the dems have to do for their campaign ads is run his Twitter feed and his "wonderful" speeches.

They don't have to do that. Everyone knows exactly who Trump is. They knew exactly who he was November of 2016 and those 70K still voted for him. What has he done to change that? I don't see anything.

Look no further than the midterms. He's lost a huge portion of those states that help make up that 70K. Again, these are just facts.

Now, I'm not saying that it's impossible for him to win again, but it's improbable given his history and the majority of the country disliking him.

Again, the majority disliked him before the election.

Yep, and the ammo he's given out over these last 3 years will come back to get him. He's the only president I've ever know of to be sitting on top of an economy like this, with those low poll numbers.

He's also the only President to be attacked non-stop 24/7 by the main stream media from day one. No one's faced that except Trump. Certainly that has an impact in those polls.

No one is more deserving of it than trump. He's on record lying constantly. His administration has been a revolving door and has been under investigation from day one. He meets in secret with putin. He takes the word of kim jong over our own intelligence. He's so thinned-skinned it's pathetic. And then go back to his harassment of Obama. The golfing, the teleprompter, etc. Pretty much everything trump called Obama out on, he's doing even worse.

He deserves his ridicule. But hey, at least he never wore a tan suit, huh?

And before you say it - no, I'm not going to bet you.

[/quote]
[/quote]
[/quote]

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/09/19 at 16:44:57

122027363120370824372E450 wrote:

I think that answer is mostly no. Much like 2016 - voters in 2020 who are unsure will vote against trump and for the other guy/gal.

His reputation precedes him and it's not a good one.

Yes, Hillary was genuinely unlikeable. But trump takes the cake. Like I keep saying, how terrible do you have to be to hover in the low 40s (approval-wise) sitting on this economy? (turns out, trump terrible)

Here's the only strategy that will work for him.

Stop tweeting and stop talking off prompter.

We all know how likely that is....

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by raydawg on 07/09/19 at 17:12:39

5D4E5958474A4C4E451A2B0 wrote:

[quote author=3422352830252833470 link=1562686327/0#2 date=1562689694]I think 65% of America despises Trump enough to elect a turd instead of Trump.
Anything with pulse will just be a bonus.

I guess if you apply that to the 2016 election...

65% of America despises Hillary enough to elect a turd instead of Hillary. ;D[/quote]

PERFECT ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/10/19 at 04:49:50

2D3B2C31293C312A5E0 wrote:

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/10/19 at 06:46:39

172522333425320D21322B400 wrote:

[quote author=2D3B2C31293C312A5E0 link=1562686327/15#22 date=1562715072]You look it up.
I'm comfortable enough knowing that the trend leans in one direction.
You need to worry about how far and how fast you can hold back the tide.
One direction, every day... this tide never goes out.
Blame Climate Change... ;D

Here's the critical thing; you're assuming the trend is leaning in your direction but there's no proof that's true. Trump's poll numbers are higher now that when he was elected. The economy is growing and doing well. Every Democratic candidate said they would give free healthcare to illegals, that's not going to sit well with a lot of people. Many if not all of the candidates would give college tuition support to illegals, Warren is talking about paying off student debt.

I think you're underestimating the amount of people, young people included, who find those ideas repugnant.

Another key thing; Trump's midterm losses were much, much smaller than what a mid-term President typically looes. I believe that Obama, Bush and Clinton lost more at their midterm but still won a second term.

When you take into consideration the number of local democratic wins, governorships, etc., the wins were much deeper.

Sure, Trump could lose, but I see the odds in his favor. Neither you nor TT have provided much solid information that puts dents in that prediction.

But as I've always said, you're right, you will ultimately win. But Trump is a 4 or 8 year break against the tide. Right now, I say it's an 8 year break. [/quote]

I've seen no "solid information" from the right either.

So, consider this:

76% of Americans believe that global warming is a serious threat
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1198a1Global-Warming.pdf

65-70% of Americans want some sort of Medicare for All.
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-government-to-provide-healthcare-for

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/15/poll_medicare_for_all_support_is_high__but_complicated_140327.html

77% of Americans agree that money should be taken out of politics.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/08/most-americans-want-to-limit-campaign-spending-say-big-donors-have-greater-political-influence/

America’s Political Mood Is Now the ‘Most Liberal Ever Recorded’

htt://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/americas-political-mood-is-now-most-liberal-ever-recorded.html

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/10/19 at 14:29:52

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/10/19 at 14:43:28

407275646372655A76657C170 wrote:

76% of Americans believe that global warming is a serious threat
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1198a1Global-Warming.pdf

Impossible that's true. 76 out of 100 people think global warming is a serious threat yet it shows up at the bottom of polls asking voters to list what their concerns are, the best selling vehicles are pickup trucks, houses are larger than before, ocean front property still maintains high value despite the fact its the most impacted by climate change supposedly.... Sorry, but there's simply no way that's true. Ask the people on SuzukiSavage and see if 75% say climate change is a serious threat.

Just because you don't like the result, doesn't make it untrue. Sorry mark.

65-70% of Americans want some sort of Medicare for All.
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-...

Nope. Ask them this question. Are you in favor of losing your current health insurance plan that covers your spouse and children to replace it with the same management style that covers VA hospitals?

If you ask that question then the support drops, of course. But to say that it'd be the same system as the VA is a lie.

I'll counter your point however, look how "popular" it is to repeal Obamacare. (hint - it ain't)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/05/15/poll_medicare_for_all_su...

77% of Americans agree that money should be taken out of politics.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/08/most-americans-want-to-limit-...

Sure, they say that now. However, let's say some wacho congressmen decides he wants to outlaw motorcycles in order to save money on the government's medicare for all plan. So all us motorcyclist band together and use the AMA to lobby others in the government to stop that crazy idea. But sorry, it's illegal now so bye-bye motorcycles..... All of a sudden, money in politics when its for something you want, is a good idea....

LOL - that's a straw-man. First off, how the hell would that save money? Secondly, if there were some wacko congressman out there to do that, he/she would never have the support of Congress and you know it. That kind of thing is a perfect example of how a grass-roots gathering would work.

The constituency is who the reps work for, not corporations. Thus, unlimited money in politics corrupts.

You think orange-guy is gonna listen to someone who donated $20 over someone who donated $200,000? No way in hell.

America’s Political Mood Is Now the ‘Most Liberal Ever Recorded’

I agree. The nation will eventually die because of leftist. You will win the war.

Yeah, they said that about Social Security and Medicare, so.... (ever see the anti New Deal buttons?)

htt://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/americas-political-mood-is-now-most-libera
l-ever-recorded.html

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/11/19 at 05:57:28

More evidence Trump’s re-election odds are climbing,

Headline: AOC ups ante in feud with Pelosi, suggests speaker is 'singling out' newly elected 'women of color'

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/11/19 at 06:32:21

714344555243546B47544D260 wrote:

More evidence Trump’s re-election odds are climbing,

Headline: AOC ups ante in feud with Pelosi, suggests speaker is 'singling out' newly elected 'women of color'

If equating in-fighting within a party to success/failure - well then, trump and the repubs are all toast.

:D

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/11/19 at 07:27:40

Not true. Trump and all the party’s major figures are on same page.
The more the radical leftist separate from normal Democrats the better it is Trump.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by raydawg on 07/11/19 at 08:00:21

685A5D4C4B5A4D725E4D543F0 wrote:

Not true. Trump and all the party’s major figures are on same page.
The more the radical leftist separate from normal Democrats the better it is Trump.

With Trump I believe it was/is more personality conflict, which I readily understand and support, still do.....

With the democrats, its more policies, even tho some of these tweeters are : loudmouth
noun bigmouth (slang), noisily, swaggerer, brag, blusterer, windbag,tactless (slang), braggart, braggadocio, gasbag (informal), blowhard (informal), bullshitter (taboo slang), bullshit artist (taboo slang) He is a loudmouth, and very spoilt too.....

Just like Trump himself..... ;D

If Uncle Joe wins the nomination, I will most likely vote for him as he is more to my liking. If its any other, then no, I will prolly vote Trump this time.....

In the end Web, I think its like standing outside on the street of a big department store, looking into the display window, seeing the staged setting.......
The real workings go on out of view, by the same players, regardless of who is standing in the window.

We know we are heading to a one world power, it is biblical prophecy....
The power as such will require no borders, and much leeway away from absolutes, with victimization the means to grasp its power.

Much in the same way many Christians use Satan, Muslim use infidel, etc.
If used in a manner to control others, instead of self, it becomes nothing more than what we were trying to eliminate in our lives, in the first place.....

I use to have attached to my post: I just hate intolerant people

That is what happens to folks who engage dishonestly with themselves.... ;)

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/11/19 at 09:05:32

7F4D4A5B5C4D5A65495A43280 wrote:

Not true. Trump and all the party’s major figures are on same page.
The more the radical leftist separate from normal Democrats the better it is Trump.

Really? So... how many democrats that you know of have switched to become republicans this year?

Maybe you missed these little tidbits:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/447651-gop-group-urges-republicans-to-speak-out-on-obstruction-claims-against-trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/13/republicans-trump-foreign-interference-remarks-1364220

http://thinkprogress.org/justin-amash-republican-reaction-impeachment-2a33932ac80c/

Yeah, that's where the orange one sits... on a pile of his own sh!t.

Meanwhile, just as Sero said before, the progressive (true progressives) candidates are making their way into Congress.

Anyone with a brain can see that Pelosi is old guard and is afraid to impeach trump - why, we don't know. But suffice it to say, it's about time that the democrats man up and take the fight to the right, instead of playing victim.

I've said on more than one occasion that the democrats need to grow a spine - and it looks like they finally are. (btw, AOC is still polling in the mid 50s in her home district)

But hey, you go ahead and believe what you want. Meanwhile, trump is going to continue to post about how he's a "stable genius" and continue to name call. I dunno, maybe if they let 3rd graders vote, he'd have a chance. But since that's not the case, he's digging his own grave - tweet by tweet.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by Gordie R on 07/11/19 at 14:47:44

I don't see any Dem candidate or platform that has a snowballs chance in hell of winning the WH in 2020 , I also think that DJT has done an outstanding job, coming from a non political background, fighting all the forces that the MSM, Hollywood, Obamas FBI and DOJ leftovers could muster yet still succeeding . Although I'm a Canadian I haven't felt as proud to be a neighbor of the US since RR and JFK!
In answer to a previous statement about his low popularity rating, just look at his rallys ( which the MSM won't show the crowds ) and remember what the polls said in 2016.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/11/19 at 15:08:28

In the end Web, I think its like standing outside on the street of a big department store, looking into the display window, seeing the staged setting.......
The real workings go on out of view, by the same players, regardless of who is standing in the window.

I don't believe that. The nation would be in awful shape right now with President Hillary, Senate Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi.

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by WebsterMark on 07/11/19 at 15:09:44

4D7A7D617B0F0 wrote:

I would think its easier to find a 4 leaf clover in Alberta in December than a Canadian who says what you just said....!!!

Title: Re: Trump's likely re-election odds
Post by T And T Garage on 07/11/19 at 15:17:50

7641465A40340 wrote:

Well Gordie, you're certainly entitled to your opinion - but reality might show otherwise.

I've got many friends in Canada and they laugh at trump on a daily basis (and give me a hard time about it).

But hey, welcome to the fold.