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General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> Well......nah, others know better.
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Message started by raydawg on 07/26/18 at 15:51:06

Title: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/26/18 at 15:51:06

The biggest “fake news” story of the last few years was that Donald Trump had almost no chance of being elected president. The entire pundit-polling-news establishment (including myself) was wrong, and the expectation was that these institutions would recalibrate their coverage to reflect a true picture of the country. They made an enormous miscalculation and they would, of course, make changes.

Almost two years later, very little has changed in polling and analysis at major institutions and news media. If anything, the polling has drifted even further from reality when you look at the questions being asked and, more importantly, the questions not being asked. You don’t need polls to see the America you live in. You need polls to understand the part of America you don’t know, don’t see, and don’t understand.

I believe that, in 2016, many of the national election polls were basically accurate, depicting a fairly close race, but the analysis of them was sophomoric, failing to understand the electoral college power of the unique coalition Trump amassed. His daily Midwest rallies were dismissed as curiosities of a desperate candidate with no real chance of winning. Boy, were they wrong.

This disconnect could be happening all over again. Take a look, for example, at the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll for July. It’s very professional and a generally accurate poll. Look at what it found this month: Trump’s approval rating edged up 1 point and his “strong approval” went up 3 points. His personal image improved several points. The congressional horserace closed 4 points in the direction of Republicans.

Yet, the rest of the poll documents how people want more immigration, want to continue the Robert Mueller investigation, see tariffs as increasing prices for consumers and, of course, that Trump was too friendly to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The headlines on NBC screamed negative clickbait, while the poll shows Trump and the Republicans advancing. The more intense support for Trump was attributed by one of the pollsters to Trump’s attacks on the press.

Notice a disconnect between the polls and the people? The questions focus on the anti-Trump storyline as though the point of the questions is to prove the validity of that coverage. Except for a single query about Trump’s performance on the economy, the rest of the questions are framed in ways that would lead any reader to believe everything the president does is wrong and opposed by the public. Some of it is. But not to the extent depicted. That’s the danger in polls that miss the full story.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/26/18 at 15:52:36

More: http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/398940-polling-could-be-missing-reality-again

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/26/18 at 16:36:57

How is it fake news? Are you saying the polls had data that indicated Trump would win and intentionally published contradictory results?

I was under the impression that the methods used in polling data assessment were dated compared to the methods used in creating votes.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/26/18 at 16:45:17

5676747C6176130 wrote:

It's like Russia I guess, you know, they go on FB and say Hillary likes Anthony's Wiener...
And Trump wins. ;D

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/27/18 at 06:17:21

When Russia associates create unverified information and post it as fact, or even opinion it could be considered fake news.

How was polling data altered to create a false assessment versus an inaccurate one?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/27/18 at 07:32:26

133331392433560 wrote:

Hillary didn't win......that is FACT.
They "interpreted" it, more like TWISTED IT, to favor Clinton.

Didn't you read the article?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/27/18 at 08:05:29

I read it but didn't see information about it being twisted prior.

"They "interpreted" it, more like TWISTED IT, to favor Clinton.

Didn't you read the article?"

Did you? I cant find a single mention of Clinton.

"I believe that, in 2016, many of the national election polls were basically accurate, depicting a fairly close race, but the analysis of them was sophomoric, failing to understand the electoral college power of the unique coalition Trump amassed. His daily Midwest rallies were dismissed as curiosities of a desperate candidate with no real chance of winning. Boy, were they wrong."

So from what I can see the polls were accurate, but the assessment was "sophomoric" but not manipulative or otherwise intentionally altered to convey a result.

That is potentially being done now, but not in 2016, that article contradicts itself:

"The biggest “fake news” story of the last few years was that Donald Trump had almost no chance of being elected president."

"I believe that, in 2016, many of the national election polls were basically accurate, depicting a fairly close race, but the analysis of them was sophomoric,"

Fake News as far as I can tell is used to define inaccurate or fabricated information in a news type media. Basically accurate but poorly interpreted, versus fabricated to show false results, are not the same to me.

The article as I read it indicates that there are manipulative polling methods being used now. not with Clinton in 2016.

NOTE: This post was typed by a person other than the represented poster "Eegore". All content within this post was typed verbatim and verified by means of audio, video, or in-person by Eegore before being posted on this forum.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/27/18 at 08:47:51

Well we get different results from reading that.

Polls can always be posed in such a manner that it skews the results.
They have long been used to present fact, based on a false narrative.
When the results are not what you want, you discard it, and try a different poll.

If you go back and look at how folks here on either side have said, you can't trust polls, because..........
Should be a pretty good indicator of the veracity.

I know, lets take a poll to see how many folks will even respond to a poll? ;D

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/27/18 at 09:18:14

Polls claiming Hillary was Out in Front were lies, intended to get weak willed followers to support the Obvious Winner. As the election approached they were forced to Adjust the claims more toward reality, in order to not destroy the value of polls.
When I see a poll I consider the political climate and the people or topic of the poll.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/27/18 at 09:22:38

How do we know polls indicating Hillary was in the lead were fabricated?

Specifically is there evidence that can be looked at?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/27/18 at 09:30:53

Early polls were showing her wiping out trump.
I'm old and watched the Game before.
Brazile ADMITTED she
Saw no big support for Hillary
When she traveled the country.
I'm willing to conclude, based on evidence, without a government study, that pollsters are just as biased as the media and will use a poll to Create support, when it's not there to report.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/27/18 at 09:49:26

The reason I ask is because the Trump campaign implemented procedures to counter information taken directly from polling data, this is from their own multiple admissions.

Project Alamo for instance was a direct response to his support in polling data being low, so they began the voter reduction plan.

Brad Parscale himself used polling data while building and adjusting Alamo and never once proclaimed the data was fabricated and that adjustments were made to counter such falsities. Priebus was essentially in the same boat.

So if the Trump campaign didn't consistently concern themselves with fabricated polling data, and they used hundreds of thousands of dollars and a 100+ person team to analyze the data why would I think they are all wrong?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go
https://medium.com/startup-grind/how-the-trump-campaign-built-an-identity-database-and-used-facebook-ads-to-win-the-election-4ff7d24269ac
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/obama-veterans-software-aiding-trump-campaign-225911

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/27/18 at 10:11:38

I didn't SAY they were All wrong.
And the fact that the Trump team didn't announce that they saw the polls as lies doesn't mean they didn't.
He did do his own, so, what does that say?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/27/18 at 10:23:30

5C7C7E766B7C190 wrote:

In-house and party spin is expected.....
That is the nature of campaigning.
When the networks do it willingly, that has crossed the line of integrity.
I think you can fairly see the effects of closing, layoffs, etc, with media outlets, in the news industry, as such.
Is this sole cause, no, but it is a factor.

My oldest is highly awarded in the marketing industry, its all about perception, when generating sales.
Politics, and the media, is a market, make no mistake about that....
They need to sell you so their cash keeps coming in.
With the invent of "instant recall" via the INTERNET, its getting harder to market deception, and their claims get more outlandish, which, reveals their deceit, even more.....
Like a guilty man strapped to the electric chair, crying his innocents with his last breath.
If a person uses this technology to affirm what he WANTS TO BELIEVE, he is a sitting duck, a fool, and a tool, for those who want to hang on to their lost causes.
Not to mention, stupid.

Anything you have not heard and seen with your OWN EYES, is suspect....
And half of that is questionable too ;D

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by Eegore on 07/27/18 at 10:28:17

"I didn't SAY they were All wrong."

I didn't say you did.

What I meant to convey is that given the methods used by the Trump digital campaign, why would I think that 100's of analysts were incorrect in using the actual, unadjusted poll data.

"And the fact that the Trump team didn't announce that they saw the polls as lies doesn't mean they didn't."

This is true, but given the released metrics on the digital components post-poll release there is a significant response from the Trump campaign that reflects a response to poll data as released, with no adjustments for falsification. They may have thought they were lies but the digital record, and their statements react to actual poll data. So yeah they may have thought there was mass-falsification however the counter strategy did not take that into effect to a degree large enough to be measurable, or to be mentioned by the very people who took on the task.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/27/18 at 11:16:03

Ya know, all that may be, however, the so called polls are only as accurate as they can be depending on the polled.
Are they sincere, etc....
We can never ascertain that, never.
So, in all effects, it’s a best guess scenario.
I think if we honestly analysis the reactions that night, it clearly states, even with Trump himself, a disbelief in the outcome.
Now ask intellectually, was it a scientific glitch, OR, perhaps a loosely concerted effort by the “swamp” to control the SWAMP?
Which of the two seems most likely?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by MShipley on 07/27/18 at 12:53:40

Look, wisdom and knowledge are too different things. I unfortunately have seen this way too many times. The Media and the status quo had their choice to win and the polls reflected that. This is done to keep those that think they have no chance to win at home, depressed, and no reason to vote.

I told people all along that Trump was going to win and he was going to win big despite the polls. You ask why?

One momentum: all you had to do was look at how many attended a Trump rally vs a Clinton rally. Hillary had no interest.

Interest: No one cared about Hillary she was totally out of touch with the American people but the media and status quo could not see this.

Millennial's: have NO interest in the old status quo system. they want something new... anything new... they want a change... any change besides the same old politics. PS. both the Millenials's and many Black Americans are tired of the fact that the Dems. think they have their votes locked up.

The left does not (nor do they still) have a grasp on the fact that the average American does not want what they sell. They pushed their fringe agenda too far and they did it with a big big middle finger in the face of those on the other side. They were smug and patronizing.

For all these reasons I beilieve the Dems are gonna again loose big in November.

What are they running on? Impeach Trump. Never happen. Socialist programs?

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 07/27/18 at 15:15:15

so called polls are only as accurate as they can be depending on the polled.
Are they sincere,

Or
How the pollsters presented the results.
If they're wanting to present a picture that benefits someone, even if it's not what the data says, they can report whatever works for them.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by faffi on 07/27/18 at 15:45:27

I have not seen anything to suggest the polls were rigged or inaccurate - just look at the shock shown by the press when they understood Trump would win. They are not actors enough to play that well; the shock was genuine as I see it.

Also, what would be the motive to rig them in favour of HC? If anything, that would benefit DT. Why? Because many at home not all that interested in the election, but not really wanting DT, could then easily think "her lead is overwhelming, I can just stay at home and let the others do the voting". Also, those wanting a non-politician and something new would mobilize heavily to avoid another period with a standard style President.

I reckon that the polls failed to understand the power that lay with all the undecided as well as the system that meant you didn't have to win the population, just enough delegates, or what you call them.

Title: Re: Well......nah, others know better.
Post by raydawg on 07/27/18 at 17:40:42

I think the problem is still prevalent....
Folks didn’t believe he could win, so, they took the data from a preconceived biased position....
Lots inthe liberal world still do not understand its THEIR beliefs that are rejected, NOT that Trump is a winner, per se.