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Message started by Ruttly on 02/12/17 at 18:11:10

Title: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/12/17 at 18:11:10

Oroville , CA Mandatory evacuation  below dam and downstream
Emergency spillway at Oroville Dam to Fail within the next few hours
Yeah our drought is over !
If it fails several cities are doomed , the lake level will drop 30 to 40 ft , we  may have a major disaster on our hands !
Scarey $hit happening in CA

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Papa Bear on 02/13/17 at 08:08:00

Johnstown PA type scary $hit

Good luck to you out there

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by springman on 02/13/17 at 08:46:06

Good luck to you all in that area.

On the lighter side of things. Put some pontoons on the Savage and get her ready. ;)

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/13/17 at 10:15:38

It's 150 miles north, I'm out of harms way ! But when they evac 188,000 people I guess it's a real issue ! Better safe than dead !

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by pg on 02/13/17 at 10:23:54

I looked at some pictures and I don't quite understand.  Is it the spill way, the dam, or both that is going to fail?

Best regards,

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Dave on 02/13/17 at 10:32:24

I just got back from that area......I am not surprised you are having excess water problems.

A friend called me and said they were going skiing at South Lake Tahoe, and they had extra room in their condo.  He said that the area got 24 feet of snowfall in January....and the skiing would be great.  I had not been skiing in 11 years.....so I went.

We arrived last Monday.......and the "Pineapple Express" blew in and brought us 4 days of rain and wind.  We got 2-3 inches of rain everyday and the weather reports claimed the lower part of the mountains were getting 40-50 mph winds - with up to 150 mph winds at the summit.  We got a few hours of skiing in a light rain/snow and stiff winds on Monday....after that the rain and winds were so strong that most of the lifts were closed.  We must have gotten a foot of rain, and watched about 3 feet of snow melt and flow away.  When we first arrived the porch railing in this photo was buried in snow.....3 days later is was almost completely uncovered.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2lcwl1x.jpg

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by HAPPYDAN on 02/13/17 at 11:28:58

Scary. We're all hoping for the best. Here's some video taken from an aircraft:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2YHGR3kVLk

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by old.indian on 02/13/17 at 11:40:27

Family used to live in Quincy / Feather river area. Still have family along the Sacramento river..... Shirt-tail relative has a ski shop in Squaw Valley.....  

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by BSTON on 02/13/17 at 11:56:32


5344424E4151230 wrote:
I looked at some pictures and I don't quite understand.  Is it the spill way, the dam, or both that is going to fail?

Best regards,



From what I've been reading, it's the spillway that would fail. The dam itself is embedded in the bedrock. That said, the spillway supposedly holds back something like 30+ feet of water so it would still be catastrophic.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Dave on 02/13/17 at 12:18:07

I believe there are 3 current issues.

1)  On the normal spillway, a section of concrete that is at the bottom third of the concrete flume washed out - so now the water is splashing out of the flume and washing away a huge amount of soil.

2)  The normal spillway cannot flow as much water out of the reservoir as is coming in.....so the water was beginning to flow out over the emergency spillway.  The emergency spillway has never been used before, and there is concern that the heavy flow will erode a large amount of soil - they were scrambling to remove trees and vegetation (and electric towers) out of the path of the flow - so that they would not be washed downstream and clog the channel.

3)  There is evidently a hole developing in the dam at the emergency spillway, and it could compromise the stability of the dam in the upper area at the emergency spillway.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/13/17 at 12:27:17

PG , Last weeks heavy rains required water release , so they opened main spillway that created a huge sink hole in the spillway. Whole time our second largest lake was filling at 9" an hour so they let the lake fill and run over the emergency spillway. A spillway that has never been used ever , in 48 years since it was built. Water coming over the spillway eroded under the structure and was going to fail. Last I heard was they are flying in boulders to fill the hole and shore up the damaged area. If it fails lake will lower 30 to 40 feet. Dam is ok just both spillways are damaged !

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by LANCER on 02/13/17 at 14:10:44

I have family in the Oroville.
Pray that the spillways do to break down.
If they did the water pressure on the dam itself will be enormous.
In WW2 there were bombers that were outfitted with a special bomb that would skip on the water when released a very low altitude, like a torpedo.
They were trying to destroy the dams in Germany .
The would target the spillway, and with that destroyed the water moving forward to the new exit was put all that water pressure against the dam itself and cause the dam to fail.  Not sure if this would happen at Oroville but it is a concern.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/13/17 at 18:17:30

Break your enemies back , destroy the dams , flooded and no fresh water makes it hard to do anything !

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/13/17 at 19:13:45

Hope they have a good place to stay evac may continue till after next volley of storms roll thru !
Rain expected Thursday , Friday , Saturday , Monday , Tuesday not big storms but 5 in a row !!! They are lowering lake level by 50 feet now and filling in area by emergency spillway.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/14/17 at 19:17:55

They lifted the evac order today , but a lot of people aren't leaving the shelters , the smarter half of the population  ;D

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Papa Bear on 02/15/17 at 05:31:13

Earthquake nearby http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc71105749#executive

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/15/17 at 05:58:57

Papabear , That's all they need now !!!
But a 1.0 is a micro quake you couldn't even feel it , maybe if were standing on the epicenter. Water is heavy and that our 2nd largest lake.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by mpescatori on 02/15/17 at 07:29:05

My own two cents.

The Hoover Dam is a proper concrete dam. You can see the spillways in action.

http://https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/b9/92/ec/b992ecc2713e4b7a4a6abaff330d866f.jpg

The Oroville dam looks a lot more like a hu-uge embankment.

http://https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/34/114534-004-5F1F807A.jpg

http://https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/1a/dc/f8/1adcf8ea0b8554d8c2fa4e7c13bfd20e.jpg
(Someone please resize this behemoth... :P)

It is not made of reincorced concrete, rather like cubic miles packed earth.
On the one hand, it is softer, so more flexible and more likely to resist an earthquake.
On the other hand, its weak spot is erosion - which is what is happening right now.

However, flooding by erosion is a lot slower and more progressive than the apocalyptic 30-ft surge of water you would have when a concrete dam fails and collapses.

http://https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d3/Oroville_dam_infographic_feb_14.png/800px-Oroville_dam_infographic_feb_14.png

http://https://i.ytimg.com/vi/cno7JfLuMm8/maxresdefault.jpg

http://archive.signalscv.com/archives/10939/    :P

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by oldNslow on 02/15/17 at 07:41:57


Quote:
However, flooding by erosion is a lot slower and more progressive than the apocalyptic 30-ft surge of water you would have when a concrete dam fails and collapses.


I think that's what they were worried about. That the erosion in the spillway would get deep enough to undermine the concrete wall, and it would fail from the bottom.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by Ruttly on 02/15/17 at 10:21:46

Evac zone was huge , I bet real estate values start to take a dive !

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 02/15/17 at 20:05:40

If real estate values drop below the amount of the mortgage, they'll be underwater even if the dam holds.

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by mpescatori on 02/16/17 at 00:39:03


7A656364797E4F7F4F77656922100 wrote:
If real estate values drop below the amount of the mortgage, they'll be underwater even if the dam holds.


It's called "negative equity" and many folks sufferd from it in the early 2k years...

Title: Re: Orville Dam Spillway to Fail soon!
Post by justin_o_guy2 on 02/16/17 at 07:16:34

Yes, Pesci, the Official term is negative equity, but Underwater or Upside Down are common terms. Me, being me, thought underwater was fitting in this topic.
We just traded cars. We financed some negative equity.. I'm expecting this car to last longer than the payments and never do that again.

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