SuzukiSavage.com /cgi-bin/YaBB.pl General Category >> The Cafe >> Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? /cgi-bin/YaBB.pl?num=1401244893 Message started by Oldfeller on 05/27/14 at 19:41:33

Title: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/27/14 at 19:41:33 http://www.anandtech.com/show/8061/this-is-huge-intel-enters-strategic-agreement-with-chinese-soc-maker-rockchip http://newsroom.intel.com/community/intel_newsroom/blog/2014/05/27/intel-enters-into-strategic-agreement-with-rockchip-to-accelerate-expand-portfolio-of-intel-based-solutions-for-tablets "The agreement with Intel effectively means Rockchip will be the first company to effectively license Intel technology to produce its own chips with Intel processor cores — although the finished product will still have Intel’s name on it, not Rockchip’s." Intel needs help.   They still have zero traction in phone space, they cannot design an integrated phone chipset by themselves and right now Intel can only sell an oversized (3-4 separate chips on the motherboard) tablet chipset by putting a $10 bill on top of each of them as a bribe to the builder. They need people who understands China and how it works, they need someone who can actually do an integrated system on a chip, they desperately need someone with prior access to modern mobile video processors and radios ....   They need someone who is already in the Chinese supply chain and lastly, they desperately need someone who already has a large production allocation at TSMC.   Intel is frozen out, and desperately needs "in". Question becomes, what exactly is Intel offering to Rockchip that is sizable enough for Rockchip to risk fouling up their currently good relationship with ARM/Linaro?   Why would Rockchip risk their currently good relationship with Open Source in general? What sort of vaporish promises would actually sway a sensible Chinese company to do these things? ======================================== Follow up thought, Intel sounds like they are trying to emulate ARM and "license" their the good parts of their technology to another company that is already on the inside.   Problem is ARM designs the entire thing for you and guarantees the performance, but what is Intel actually able to offer anyone at this stage?   None of their stuff works well at any competitive price point (without huge loss leader pricing, that is). I wonder what the ARM community reaction to Intel's sweeping change in direction will be?   Their first question might be "Is this another Intel disruptive vapor balloon, or is it real?" ::)     If any of it IS real, look to see ARM act proactively to "plug the hole" that Intel hopes to get into.    Intel has been kept on the side lines very carefully up until this point.  Rockchip may have just "volunteered" to join Intel on the sidelines, a move which Rockchip will quickly realize isn't in their best interest. ARM may just take some actions to lower the barriers to their low end 64 bit processors, doing up some designs that will run on today's existing lithography processes.   They made one move in this direction with A17, they may have to do something else to keep Intel out of the main course of the future current. The football game just got more interesting .....

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/28/14 at 11:26:50 Sure enough, the day after the big announcement, Wall Street reacts to what they see as the consequences of Intel "giving up on phones" and now they seem to think that Intel is saying they can't even make a go of it in tablets by themselves. =========================== "Wells Fargo’s David Wong, who has an Outperform rating on Intel, and a $29 to $34 “valuation range,” writes that while “Intel has successfully established itself as the primary supplier of processors for Windows based tablets,” nevertheless, Intel has to make traction with Android machines: To hit its 40 million tablet processor goal for 2014, we think that Intel will have to begin showing some traction in Android tablets fairly soon. We are not aware of any major tablet maker having formally launched Android tablets using Intel’s Bay Trail processors. We had first expected to see Bay Trail in Android tablets in September 2013, and we believe that the debut of Bay Trail in Android tablets has, by now, slipped by perhaps as much as 9 months from Intel’s original hopes. We will be looking for announcements relating to Bay Trail based Android tablets made in conjunction with the Computex Trade show, which begins on June 3." =========================== "Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research reiterates an Underperform rating on shares of Intel, and an $18 price target, writing that Intel’s putting in the essential pieces of the chip, so it’s not clear that Rockchip is contributing much: Rockchip’s main contribution seems to be their customer relationships and base, allowing an Intel-branded device to be sold into the low end of the emerging markets by a company that knows how to do business there [...] We remain somewhat confused as to how specifically Rockchip will benefit from the agreement. The SoFIA-based parts carry no “contra-revenues” and Intel indicated there were no investments or financial connections between the companies as a result of the announcement. – We presume that there must be some sort of MDF or other support coming from Intel to Rockchip, not classified as “investment” or “contra-revenues.” We suppose Rockchip gains access to a 3G modem, but cellular penetration in these low-end tablets remains relatively low (and stand-alone 3G is rapidly losing relevance anyway). – Frankly, without hard dollars thrown their way, the only thing we really see Rockchip gaining from this is the “opportunity” to sell a sub-standard x86-based tablet part a year from now to compete directly against their own existing ARM-based product portfolio for low-end tablets." ========================== "Perhaps the most extreme view is from Drexel Hamilton’s Richard Whittington, who has a Hold rating on the shares, and a $28 price target, and who writes that this may be prep for Intel to bow out of some segments of the tablet market: Evidence that rather than an endlessly destructive PC-Mobile dichotomy, three markets are emerging, including a re-made PC Intel unwilling to accommodate with low power, low priced CPUs three years ago, Apple created the now ubiquitous iPad that curtailed PCs Yet as users have flocked to these and still smaller and less expensive mobiles, the PC market appears to be making something of a comeback Multitasking but especially a keyboard even for email but especially for Office and now widely available 2:1s seem to be sparking new life in PCs. Studies suggesting 2:1s used 85%-90% as PCs combine with a much stronger economy and pent-up demand to sustain a year’s PC refresh. Tablets look at risk of being pulled apart by larger phones (phablets) and 12” PC (Surface for Office?) and MacBook Air, each with x86 CPUs. Intel could redefine its strategy to spin-off sub-$10 processors while focusing on PCs and keyboard tablets running Windows or Mac OS. $3bn+ tablet subsidization holding its stock down, yesterday’s RockChip deal could morph into a face-saving Intel exit from lowest-end tablets. Its processor lines set for a 30% die size shrink to 14nm next year, Intel still needs to fill its fabs to re-establish its shares as investment-ready." ========================== No matter which view is taken, this move signals Intel's first formal admission that they cannot make a compelling mobile anything by themselves. My read -- Rockchip wants the main Intel processor technology which they will then blend into a mix by replacing the somewhat weaker main processors that ARM gave them with the A17 deal.   Rockchip did not buy (nor pay for) the stronger A15 or A57 64 bit main processor technology and now hopes to wang-bang Allwinner and ARM by dropping in a quartet of 64 bit Intel main processor cores in with the Mali 72x graphics they already leased the rights to. Now, this is all seems semi-legal enough for them to do right now; from 100 miles away looking down at it -- both Intel and Rockchip are ARM licensees after all.   But, they are colluding to tweek their existing license agreements some though by doing some mixing and matching on the A-17 package deal that ARM granted to Rockchip last year.   Putting Intel's name on the proposed Frankenstein is a violation of Rockchip's ARM agreement on A17 right off the bat. I would suspect ARM's written license agreements will get some review and some changed wording going forward.   The A-17 was a turn key package job and Rockchip isn't currently a full design licensee on the A-17 package right now anyway, are they? ARM probably won't have to sue anybody over this, but they will act to prevent this sort of game in the future.   Or, if wording in the existing turn key package agreements is enforcible, then Rockchip may lose the license for ARM A17 completely if they start fiddling about with it with Intel.   Yes, Intel bought a full DESIGN license -- but did Rockchip do a full design license when they did the A17 deal last year?   No they did not.  Does Intel have any license rights to the A17 package deal and the Mali 628 graphics chipset specifically?   No, they currently do not. Hmmmmm?   What did Intel actually go buy right before this little game of theirs hit the table? If it is permitted, then Rockchip has the potential to Frankenstein up a really strong chipset out of the best of the various pieces, but will they lose their good ARM relationship in doing so?   Does Rockchip realize that Intel's gate and circuit flow patterns are ass backwards to all ARM designs and that may mean they will have some of the same serious compatibility issues that Intel has never been able to whup in the past? ;) Or else perhaps ARM will just quietly cut Rockchip a A57 license deal if Rockchip will simply drop the whole Intel Frankenstein arrangement. Look to see Allwinner to be making some serious moves soon to keep their arch competitor Rockchip from getting a march into 64 bit land ahead of them. Look for ARM to be making some "rabbit out of the hat" moves to completely out-do whatever Intel/A17 Frankenstein that comes about and have it in someone else's hands proven out and in full production before Intel can slooowwly move along with their Rockchip Frankenstein to get it into any real production.   (Intel is still slow as molasses compared to ARM) Look for Qualcomm to be moving quickly to exclude Rockchip from some 4G LTE radio technologies that Qualcomm owns (Qualcomm knows Intel is their real competitor and that Rockchip is no longer a friend). Look for Rockchip to get Nokialized as an Intel puppet.   Rockchip is betting their entire farm on this deal and hopefully realizes that Nokia didn't get anything but lots of head lumps and red ink from their original Nokialization process.

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/29/14 at 01:49:58 Now here are the finance folks writing about the ARM implications of the Intel / Rockchip deal.   Coming from a different slant, they see the core facts more clearly (mainly since they cover ARM and understand the mobile world a lot better than the Intel press does). http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/05/27/intel-rockchip-deal-sign-of-struggle-says-raymond-james/ "Hans Mosesmann of Raymond James, who rates Intel shares Underperform, writes this afternoon that the deal was a surprise, and that the company may have run up against obstacles to a goal put forth by Intel CEO Brian Krzanich to have Intel chips in 40 million tablets this calendar year: The deal will likely be viewed as curious by the Street, but we suspect not impactful for the shares. Given the sudden nature of the announcement and the more “tactical” nature of the relationship (we see nothing particularly strategic here, as there is no 4G or Intel foundry involvement), we would tend to believe Intel is seeing this 40 million tablet goal in 2014 as a no-walk-in-the-park exercise. We do believe that if indeed Intel is struggling in tablets (or not), it is nice to see the CEO host a hastily organized mid-quarter conference call. Obviously, Intel’s focus on mobile is very, very important to senior management. The Benchmark Company‘s Gary Mobley, who follows shares of ARM Holdings (ARMH), and rates them Hold, writes that the prospect of an Intel-based part entering the segment of the tablet market is not good for ARM: While the PR surrounding this Intel/Rockchip announcement is somewhat vague, the implications for ARM Holdings may be viewed as negative. Rockchip has significantly grown mobile application processor share during the past few years as the company’s ARM-based chips have benefitted from the boom in the sub-$150 tablet and smartphone markets. The implication from Tuesday’s announcement is that Rockchip is going to also sell Intel-based (e.g. Atom-based) mobile application processors alongside existing ARM-based chips. This relationship with Rockchip represents Intel’s latest attempts to crack into the tablet processor marketplace, an effort that has yielded little results thus far (~6% market share for tablet processors). Rockchip, with 10% share of tablet processors, is a good pick for its established relationships, but he wonders how much Intel will have to subsidize it: The new SoFIA chip may be based on Rockchip’s graphics (e.g. ARM Mali) and interconnect cores. This will be one of three SoFIA chips offered by Intel. The quad-core, 3G SoFIA chip to be developed/marketed with Rockchip will be in the market in 1H CY15. The idea, according to Intel chief executive Brian Krzanich, was to quickly expand into China and take advantage of Rockchip’s established relationships with tablet makers there. What Rockchip gets out of the relationship is an mobile processor with an integrated baseband, thus supporting Intel’s strategic rationale for maintaining its baseband modem development efforts (again, positive for CEVA) [...] It is hard to imagine how the quad-core, Intel-architected SoFIA processor in question can be price competitive with an ARM-based processor targeted at sub-$150 Android tablet computers. The Intel SoFIA integrated processor must be at least 2.0x the cost of Rockchip’s recently launched quad-core Cortex A12 apps processor, thus bring into focus how much Intel may be willing to subsidize its entry into the tablet market." In short, the street expects Intel to have to heavily subsidize Rockchip's initial efforts, or if Rockchip is as slow as they have been in the past to put the A17 to market they expect Intel in the end to have to use Rockchip as their excuse for bowing out of the tablet market entirely. ARM is being impacted on the street some by this defection, so ARM's response will determine their stock's bounce back potential. ARM has two response paths -- block the deal by exercising the terms of their license agreement with Rockchip or else COMPETE AND CRUSH by blowing the Intel vapor Frankie out of the water with some new stronger ARM chipset product designs.   A17 wasn't the only bullet in ARM's rifle after all.  Samsung could be encouraged to roll forward with their 64 bit Hexa chipset with cores strong enough to outperform the Intel Cherry-Bay whatsists that are vapor planned for Intel's Sofia excursion. Issue for Intel will be that ARM doesn't shoot vapor bullets -- provoking ARM may indeed result in Intel being shot with a fatal bullet in a time when they are tottering at the edge of the mobile cliff.

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/29/14 at 03:48:01 "Just exactly what is wrong with Intel?"   you ask. Let's go to the cutting edge of Intel's wearable tech and take a look see if we can get any clues. http://www.idigitaltimes.com/articles/21413/20140108/ces-2014-intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-edison.htm Intel CEO Brian Krzanich Introduces Edison Microprocessor Built For Wearable Technology http://cdn.idigitaltimes.com/data/images/full/2014/01/08/13800-edison.jpg NOTE PLEASE:    The Edison has no I/O ports nor video outputs. This is just the CPU, it will require additional space for video and I/O jacks. "Analysts predict that the wearable computing industry will see explosive growth within the next three years. According to a Forbes report, Berg Insight predicts that smart glasses, smart watches and wearable fitness tracker sales will reach 64 million units by 2017, which is a 671 percent growth from 2012. In addition to the unveiling of the Edison processor, Intel revealed that it has been working on wearable products of its own during the past six months. The company has plans to release a smartwatch, smart headset and more. Krzanich touted the fact that Intel's smartwatches will be capable of connecting to mobile networks without the help of a smartphone. The Edison processor is about the size of an SD card. Intel hasn't revealed a specific release date for the Edison, but Krzanich said that it will be available this summer. It's unclear how much of an impact the Edison will have on the burgeoning wearable computer market." Justin, what do you think is wrong with Intel's 10 chips on a motherboard that is the actual size of an SD card "wearable" Edison chipset? Old-rider, how would this chipset play inside your Google Glasses? Or inside my daughter's thin as the band Android fitness unit? ::)       Remember, heat = inefficient power usage and 130+ degrees is uncomfortably hot to the skin. Watch this to see exactly what is wrong with Intel -- too much vapor BS, lots & lots of heat and NO ON-CHIP INTEGRATION YET AT ALL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9tn1cG8PGw

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by old_rider on 05/30/14 at 04:48:25 Exactly on the heat issue.... although the chip would fit in the glass unit the heat it generates would not work. I am returning my glass unit because of overheat issues already. It seems the software upgrade creates battery issues with some of the glass units and mine was one. Google has agreed to send me a new unit after I mail them my old one. They sent me pre-addressed shipping label so off it goes today. I doubt I will have it back in time for the trip to the dragon.

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/30/14 at 08:18:42 Does your glasses unit talk to a belt unit, or is it all self contained? Issue with Intel Edison is that is it as big as an original SIMM or SD card,  which would cover the palm of your hand with some hand left over. Big, and HOT HOT HOT. The Quark chip isn't so huge all by itself, but it requires 9 more chips to make a functioning unit.   No integration of functions on the chipset itself .... A Qualcomm 501 has everything on it that you need, right on the chip itself.  And it is still considerably smaller than a SD card. Some of the really tiny ARM chipsets like the A5 single and dual cores are complete in themselves as well. Heck, a dual core A20 from Allwinner is complete within itself and is cheap as the dickens right now.

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 05/30/14 at 14:38:29 http://cdn.liliputing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/vocore-dock.jpg https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/vocore-a-coin-sized-linux-computer-with-wifi For contrast, this is a Linux based ARM mini PC board complete with both WiFi, a LAN jack and a USB hub interface.   It costs $40 and is smaller than a quarter is tall in any of its cubic like aspects.

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by old_rider on 06/17/14 at 10:21:24 Don't remember which post it was you put up about the Chinese cheap smart phones with great software.... well BEWARE... http://news.yahoo.com/report-chinese-phone-comes-preloaded-spyware-153543708--finance.html Yup... you knew it would happen...just a matter of time... :o

Title: Re: Intel, "Ya wanna design our next chipset? Post by Oldfeller on 06/17/14 at 14:40:01 Germans have gotten pretty good at finding the hardware "hooks" built into Intel chipsets and the data "reels" written into the various Windows OS products and then bitching voraciously about it in a public fashion. (and also banning Windows OS products from any German governmental uses that involve any sort of personal data) Did you think they were going to give the Chinese a free pass when they started to do this sort of narsty stuff? ;)

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