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Message started by pgambr on 11/29/13 at 16:32:31

Title: Inflation
Post by pgambr on 11/29/13 at 16:32:31

Do you remember the good old days when gas was a dollar a gallon and milk was inexpensive?  Sorry, I don’t remember the cost of milk when gas was a buck a gallon.  Gas is $3.30 a gallon down the road from me and the last time I bought a gallon of mild it was $4.13.  I tried to remember the basic TVM – time value of money formula from my school days.  Let’s plug in some numbers to see what that the dollar would look like adjusted for inflation over 20 years.  I’m going to use an interest rate of 4.5%.  3% is an arbitrary number that I don’t feel that is has much merit.
 
N      20            Years compounded annually
I      4.5%            Interest rate
PV      $1            Present value – that’s what we are starting with
PMT      0            Payment – were not adding any $$ into the equation
FV      $2.41      Future value

If your thinking the dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to, you are correct.  Let’s play with the numbers a bit more.  If you made $30k 20 years ago you would have to make $72,351 to keep up with inflation.      
I put this thread in the TT because I figured a good chance the discussion would end up here.   :-?

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by Serowbot on 11/29/13 at 22:04:45

Gas in Europe is $8 to $10 a gallon...  
When it starts approaching that price here,.. it won't be the end of everything... but, it will stop the size war on the streets...
We'll start driving cars instead of tanks...

Milk... is artificially cheap in the US... it is subsidized...
...and it is due to expire...
It won't,.. because there would be massive outrage if the price suddenly jumped to $7 or $8 a gallon...

On the other hand...
Flat screen TV's, MP3 players, and tablets are cheap as dirt...
Odd,.. that we can afford luxuries but not necessities...
I have 3 flat screens, several MP3 players, and a tablet (worthless)... but, I only buy milk on sale, and drive as little as possible, thrift shop clothes,.. I buy outdated meat, and stock up on food sale items...
It's also pretty chilly in my house...
1 month's heat bill, or grocery bill,... can buy a new TV... or whatever...
It seems odd to be able to afford these unnecessary luxury items, but be cold and eating food that is discounted...

Luxury is cheap... life is expensive...
Seems out of balance... :-/...

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by WebsterMark on 11/30/13 at 05:21:19

Let's be a bit more open here Sew, gas in Europe is heavily taxed to 1) fund nanny state and 2) is a method to enforce someone else's environmental view upon the masses

How about we drive what we can both afford and what we want, not what someone else tells us to.

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by WebsterMark on 11/30/13 at 05:25:00

There are a million reason why Obamacare is the single worst government action of the past 100 years if not ever, but chief among these is it takes away yet more freedoms. It enslaves yet millions more to Uncle Sam.  There are not enough words for the damage it will do.

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by Dane Allen on 12/01/13 at 22:19:21


013334252233241B37243D560 wrote:
There are a million reason why Obamacare is the single worst government action of the past 100 years if not ever, but chief among these is it takes away yet more freedoms. It enslaves yet millions more to Uncle Sam.  There are not enough words for the damage it will do.


It enslaves everyone. Just wait for all the things that will get banned in the name of not raising the costs for your neighbor. It is all about control, everything!!

The story of your enslavement by some french guy, don't hold that against him. Very logical video. See the cage you are in!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQT58A

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by mpescatori on 12/02/13 at 00:30:48

One reason for inflation is the demand/supply ratio: the more demand, the less supply, the more prices rise.

Another reason for inflation is technological improvement. I'm not talking about electronics, I mean mechanical technology.
Way back when cars were cvars, not computers on wheels, the newer model would often have a fancier paint job and chrome hubcaps, yet cost a tad more. And overall prices would rise.
See the cost of a Chevy BelAir from 1954 to 1958, I don't see a technological improvement yet prices rose.

A third reason for inflation is monetary devaluation, so that imported goods will cost more because on the foreign exchange you need more Dollars to the Yen or DMark or whatever.


3127302D35202D36420 wrote:
Gas in Europe is $8 to $10 a gallon...  
When it starts approaching that price here,.. it won't be the end of everything... but, it will stop the size war on the streets...
We'll start driving cars instead of tanks...


Gas here in Italy is currently €1.80 which means $9.40/gal.
Even back in the 1970's, we only needed a 1.3 liter engine to develop 100hp, and a 2.0 liter car to develop 150hp. (Alfa Romeo figures, SAE net)


Quote:
Milk... is artificially cheap in the US... it is subsidized...
...and it is due to expire...
It won't,.. because there would be massive outrage if the price suddenly jumped to $7 or $8 a gallon...
...
It seems odd to be able to afford these unnecessary luxury items, but be cold and eating food that is discounted...

Luxury is cheap... life is expensive...
Seems out of balance... :-/...


Milk, bread and flour are three subsidized necessities wherever you go.
Luxury is cheap only in those nations where immediate pleasure is considered more important than the bare necessities.
See Aesop's "The Ant and the Grasshopper".

As far as I am concerned, the only debt I have is my mortgage, which will expire in Dec.2016.
Everything else is bought and paid for upfront. If I can afford it, I buy it, else, I leave it on the shelf.

PS I buy milk, fresh, one quart at a time, on a daily basis; same for bread, fruit, vegetables.
It's the "Old World" habit of having produce grown and sold locally, as opposed to the settler habit of riding to the PX once in a while and loading their wagon.
;)

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by mpescatori on 12/02/13 at 00:35:21


6B595E4F48594E715D4E573C0 wrote:
Let's be a bit more open here Sew, gas in Europe is heavily taxed to 1) fund nanny state and 2) is a method to enforce someone else's environmental view upon the masses

How about we drive what we can both afford and what we want, not what someone else tells us to.


You have a point: some 60%+ of gas prices at the pump are taxes of some kind, and at US$9.00+/gal, gas in Europe doesn't come cheap.

However, European nations are more than Nanny State, they provide assistance.

Come visit Europe, if you have a mere upset stomach and call the doctor to your hotel room, you pay out of pocket.
BUT
if you are hospitalized for whatever reason, all (and I mean A L L ) hospital care is c/o the system (of the nation you are visiting), unless it's self inflicted.

When I went to tour the US in 2008, three weeks' "accident&illness" health insurance cost me the equivalent of almost a full year's "nanny state" health plan for my son.

On the other hand, nobody likes to be asked "What's your insurance company?" at A&E before they even ask your name...

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by WebsterMark on 12/02/13 at 06:37:29

finally, a good discussion...!!!

Another reason for inflation is technological improvement. I'm not talking about electronics, I mean mechanical technology.
Way back when cars were cvars, not computers on wheels, the newer model would often have a fancier paint job and chrome hubcaps, yet cost a tad more. And overall prices would rise.
See the cost of a Chevy BelAir from 1954 to 1958, I don't see a technological improvement yet prices rose.


lot of good interesting stuff in this inflation post; thanks pga...

Technology gains boost productivity which lowers or negates the effect of inflation....

I'm guessing the price increase on the BelAir with no technology improvements to offset the price increase was a marketing strategy and an attempt to recoup as much profit as possible without sacrificing customer growth. That strategy has a lifespan associated with it. You can't keep increase prices without offset.

An interesting rule of thumb I've always heard, is when you consider technological improvements, the real price of everything other than commodities, lowers over time with the exception of real estate and taxes. Maybe real estate and taxes ARE practically speaking, commodities.

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by Dane Allen on 12/02/13 at 14:28:04


596B6C7D7A6B7C436F7C650E0 wrote:
finally, a good discussion...!!!

Another reason for inflation is technological improvement. I'm not talking about electronics, I mean mechanical technology.
Way back when cars were cvars, not computers on wheels, the newer model would often have a fancier paint job and chrome hubcaps, yet cost a tad more. And overall prices would rise.
See the cost of a Chevy BelAir from 1954 to 1958, I don't see a technological improvement yet prices rose.


lot of good interesting stuff in this inflation post; thanks pga...

Technology gains boost productivity which lowers or negates the effect of inflation....

I'm guessing the price increase on the BelAir with no technology improvements to offset the price increase was a marketing strategy and an attempt to recoup as much profit as possible without sacrificing customer growth. That strategy has a lifespan associated with it. You can't keep increase prices without offset.

An interesting rule of thumb I've always heard, is when you consider technological improvements, the real price of everything other than commodities, lowers over time with the exception of real estate and taxes. Maybe real estate and taxes ARE practically speaking, commodities.


There have been amazing gains in efficiency and productivity in manufacturing. Programs like Six Sigma and Project Management have really made those processes of manufacturing much better. To produce food in a similar way involves the franken-foods industry that is killing us today. Using for for fuel is also a travesty.

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by WebsterMark on 12/02/13 at 19:26:24

There have been amazing gains in efficiency and productivity in manufacturing. Programs like Six Sigma and Project Management have really made those processes of manufacturing much better. To produce food in a similar way involves the franken-foods industry that is killing us today. Using for for fuel is also a travesty.

Franken-foods industry? Explain. I am heavily involved in the food industry, not sure what you mean.

Title: Re: Inflation
Post by verslagen1 on 12/02/13 at 22:16:33


3A27322434362338253E570 wrote:
One reason for inflation is the demand/supply ratio: the more demand, the less supply, the more prices rise.

Luxury is cheap only in those nations where immediate pleasure is considered more important than the bare necessities.
See Aesop's "The Ant and the Grasshopper".

:-?
One sound statement followed by BS.
less demand, more supply, low prices.
the asian factories are pumping them faster than we can buy them.

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